RWC: Pool C - Wallabies v Fiji - Monday 18 Sep 2am AEST

[Dctarget]

Fiji are panicking. Their 10 is average and now they have acknowledged their 12 is average by moving him to the wing. New defensive line and our back-row will have a field day before our backs put on the polish. We will play at a different speed to Wales. Fiji under huge pressure. A few high balls and they will be like jelly.

Love the optimism, they’re starting Botia who is one of their best and will cause us headaches.

Skelton being out has made me miserable, genuine point of difference. Oh well, at least we’ll have a functioning lineout.

 

[rugbyAU]

Speak for yourself, I was the first one to rubbish the calls about Fiji beating Aus but without Tupou and Skelton we are really up against it. They're our two best, most important and irreplaceable players. Our dominant scrum goes to getting smashed, our defensive maul goes to being useless now. We lose massive carriers and ruck shifters. We're in huge trouble.

Fiji should win this now.

We still have Bell

Eddie said Skeltons still in the team at this point and will be given up until kick off to prove his fitness

 

[qwerty51]

Love the optimism, they’re starting Botia who is one of their best and will cause us headaches.

Skelton being out has made me miserable, genuine point of difference. Oh well, at least we’ll have a functioning lineout.

Until Uelese comes on.

 

[KOB1987]

The bookies still have us $1.45 favourites, they actually do a fair bit of analysis by people they pay proper salaries to to arrive at these odds. I'm sure if someone wants to do a man on man analysis you'll find Fiji might be ahead in a few spots but not enough to say that you'd think they will beat us. I dont expect it to be a walk in the park but we will prevail.

 

[rugbyAU]

The bookies still have us $1.45 favourites, they actually do a fair bit of analysis by people they pay proper salaries to to arrive at these odds. I'm sure if someone wants to do a man on man analysis you'll find Fiji might be ahead in a few spots but not enough to say that you'd think they will beat us. I dont expect it to be a walk in the park but we will prevail.

Agree, still a strong team particularly in the backline, back row and second row, the last month or so would have taken a lot out of Fiji emotionally and physically, who I believe are getting hyped up a lot

 

[Dctarget]

Nathan from Rugby.com.au still has Skelton has a chance of playing, whereas Christy has said definitively he’s not..

 

[qwerty51]

Makes sense to me, Nathan is more inside and toeing the line of Eddie making trying to downplay it I'd assume. Christy gets leaks from someone who probably knows how serious it is in reality.

 

[dru]

The bookies still have us $1.45 favourites, they actually do a fair bit of analysis by people they pay proper salaries to to arrive at these odds. I'm sure if someone wants to do a man on man analysis you'll find Fiji might be ahead in a few spots but not enough to say that you'd think they will beat us. I dont expect it to be a walk in the park but we will prevail.

I would presume that this analysis is about how they expect people to bet. Less so on who will win.

 

[Rebel man]

Makes sense to me, Nathan is more inside and toeing the line of Eddie making trying to downplay it I'd assume. Christy gets leaks from someone who probably knows how serious it is in reality.

Lol. His leak is he is going for scans then he is just jumping to conclusions after that

 

[qwerty51]

Lol. His leak is he is going for scans then he is just jumping to conclusions after that

Umm he gets the team list pretty much spot on every week, no other journo does so he's not getting it from watching training. He has an inside source.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Fiji are averaging 23ppg against them in 2023 and that includes games v Tonga, Samoa, Japan who they should keep to less.

If we can’t get at least 4 tries past these guys we deserve to lose. They are exciting but don’t defend well and are without their 10.

 

[Rebel man]

Umm he gets the team list pretty much spot on every week, no other journo does so he's not getting it from watching training. He has an inside source.

Yeah and the only statement of fact is he has been sent for scans the rest is purely his speculation

 

[footy1>31]

Yeah and the only statement of fact is he has been sent for scans the rest is purely his speculation

wrong. you don't go with what he has that hard without definitively being in the know.

 

[Tomthumb]

Speak for yourself, I was the first one to rubbish the calls about Fiji beating Aus but without Tupou and Skelton we are really up against it. They're our two best, most important and irreplaceable players. Our dominant scrum goes to getting smashed, our defensive maul goes to being useless now. We lose massive carriers and ruck shifters. We're in huge trouble.

Fiji should win this now.

Take a breath

Fiji just lost to a pathetic Welsh team, they are hardly the invincibles

 

[Tomthumb]

Eddie seemed pretty pissed off at the press conference for what it’s worth

 

[Dctarget]

Eddie seemed pretty pissed off at the press conference for what it’s worth

about what?

 

[HogansHeros]

Fiji are panicking. Their 10 is average and now they have acknowledged their 12 is average by moving him to the wing. New defensive line and our back-row will have a field day before our backs put on the polish. We will play at a different speed to Wales. Fiji under huge pressure. A few high balls and they will be like jelly.

Big call to say Semi is average.
Hes only moved across to make room for Tuisova who is certainly not a slump.

 

[rugbyAU]

Looking at Fijis past results they couldn’t beat a dreadful Welsh side, lost by the same margin to France that we did but against their B team and were poor in the last two years, losing to Aus A, Samoa and drawing to Georgia, they also should’ve put away Tonga and Samoa by more this year. The only big result was the England game, and fair credit but England were missing a few key players and were clearly playing pretty much at their worst

 

[chasmac]

It still annoys me about Quade. He seemed to be mentoring Carter Gordon really nicely. CG has got a bit lost. Reminds me of when Drew Mitchell got his first start. Played really well until Eddy got in his ear. Took him a while to rally after that.

 

[KOB1987]

I would presume that this analysis is about how they expect people to bet. Less so on who will win.

Both - probabilities of winning and they set the odds such that the house has the edge. The probability at $1.45 is around 70% of a Wallabies victory. Betfair - which is people (amateurs and pros) betting against each other - are generally the most accurate as it represents the true odds as there is no house per se.

If you look at the graphic below, this is the trend for the odds of the Wallabies winning throughout the week. It’s reasonably steady till the spike up about 2/3 of the way along which is where Tupou is ruled out, which is largely then shrugged off, before steadily drifting as it is confirmed. The next one is the team announcement, and then the Skelton ‘rumour’ which has also largely been shrugged off.