The high-rating Bledisloe Cup matches appear certain to have found a new home in Australian lounge-rooms, with Channel Nine likely to replace Seven as the broadcaster for the next five years.
Nine has already been confirmed as Australia's free-to-air broadcaster for next year's Rugby World Cup in New Zealand, with pool matches to be shown on Fox Sports, and the 2015 World Cup in England.
Fox Sports will continue televising Super 15 matches that involve Australia's five teams, including 2011 newcomers the Melbourne Rebels, as negotiations for TV rights to the SANZAR competition and Wallabies Test matches near completion.
While Nine values Bledisloe Cup matches, it also prizes the hype and ratings associated with the British and Irish Lions, who tour Australia in 2013. It has a sporting vacancy on Saturday evenings, with NRL broadcasting partner, Fox Sports, showing three matches of rugby league, Nine's main winter sport property.
The close relationship between Nine and Fox Sports, which also share coverage of Wimbledon and international cricket, including the world cup, is a significant factor in the deal, to be announced in three weeks.
News Ltd half owns Fox Sports and holds management rights, along with rugby union broadcasting rights in Australia and New Zealand.
Channel Seven, which is expected to televise Bledisloe Cup matches for the final time this season, was unhappy with a deal in which Fox Sports stole viewers by showing internationals at the same time, without advertisements.
Sources also insist News executives haven't forgotten the Federal Court action Seven owner, Kerry Stokes, took against News and others, claiming they had conspired to close his C7 pay-TV network. Relations between Fox Sports and the other potential free-to-air broadcaster, Ten, are poisonous.
News Ltd is expected to pay 30 per cent to 35 per cent more for the 2011-2015 rights, despite poor ratings for most Super 14 games during past seasons. But a change in the format of Super 15, with Australia's teams playing each other twice and the best-performed team winning a place in the finals, has encouraged News to pay more.
Furthermore, the draw will be scheduled in more viewer-friendly hours, avoiding scenarios, such as the Waratahs effectively disappearing from Australian screens for three weeks while playing in South Africa.
Australia's share of the SANZAR deal is expected to be $40m, signalling a jump in broadcasting income to the NRL, which has more games and considerably higher ratings.
While Tri Nations matches, involving South Africa, Australia and New Zealand, will continue, there are moves to include Argentina. The International Rugby Board will finance Argentina's place in a Four Nations competition from 2012 at $US2.5m for each of four years.
I assume it's not JUST the Bledisloe? That all Wallaby tests will be on 9? The Bundy series, the South African tests and the End of year tour?