Reds 2023

[Sword of Justice]

I suspect that there is more happening than just discipline. Fitness comes to mind. The counter to that despondency is where we are in the tight 5 which will impact pretty much everything.

It's just round 1, but surely the "Thorn is cooked" theme is building?

Surely yes.

The biggest area of concern I have is that the now established players are not getting better. McDermott, Wilson, McReight, Petaia, Daugunu, Fa'agase, etc have all been around quite a while and whilst they're still massive talents they haven't matured like many of us would have hoped.

I think Thorn sets relatively professional standards and is clearly great at identifying and mentoring young talent but our strategy and top player's high performance has fallen back in the pack.

 

[Dan54]

I was amazed to see Fa'agase playing to be honest. I have kind of watched him since he a kid, and thought he was finished! He came over here, and never quite cracked it in super, was basically a bench player at NPC when he went over to MLR, thought that was end and bugger me there he is running out for the Reds!!

 

[gel]

Dunno what you guys are talking about - that lead up to the disallowed try was executed so sweetly.

It's clear they had practiced that move over and over. The forward pass went exactly to where the runner would be, and the runner was precisely where the forward pass was going to go.

It was executed precisely as it had been practiced - only problem this time was someone who actually gave a fuck about it being executed correctly pulled it up.

 

[Fireworks]

Anyone know if the below players will be available to play next week?

• James O'Connor
• Liam Wright
• Angus Blyth
• Jock Campbell
• Luke Jones
• Josh Nasser
• Suliasi Vunivalu
• Connor Vest

 

[Doritos Day]

It's just round 1, but surely the "Thorn is cooked" theme is building?

What's the hurdle for a contract extension? They look done with him at the helm, sometimes partnerships just run their course

I can't see the Reds achieving a level of success that justifies keeping him on - I'd say the bar is something like a positive W/L with two kiwi wins including a final - even then the board would have to be scoping out potential alternatives.

 

[Mug Punter]

Likely back for Round 2:​

James O’Connor (Reds) – On the comeback trail from his ankle surgery, missed rd 1 despite originally aiming to play 3 weeks earlier. Source.
Luke Jones (Reds) – Struggling with a neck injury, was always a maybe for round 1. Source.
Liam Wright (Reds) – Missed round 1 with a concussion. Source.

Draft Rugby

The game they play online in heaven

draftrugby.com

And I'd be bringing in Alex Davies

 

[liquor box]

I suspect that there is more happening than just discipline. Fitness comes to mind. The counter to that despondency is where we are in the tight 5 which will impact pretty much everything.

It's just round 1, but surely the "Thorn is cooked" theme is building?

I don't really know why people thought we would be better this year, we have not really upgraded our player talent so

What's the hurdle for a contract extension? They look done with him at the helm, sometimes partnerships just run their course

I can't see the Reds achieving a level of success that justifies keeping him on - I'd say the bar is something like a positive W/L with two kiwi wins including a final - even then the board would have to be scoping out potential alternatives.

Do you think a change in coach would help us beat NZ opposition?

They are simply too good for our teams.

 

[RugbyReg]

I don't really know why people thought we would be better this year, we have not really upgraded our player talent so

Do you think a change in coach would help us beat NZ opposition?

They are simply too good for our teams.

yep, depth the biggest issue. the locks alone we have lost over the last 3 years is incredible.

 

[Doritos Day]

I don't really know why people thought we would be better this year, we have not really upgraded our player talent so

Do you think a change in coach would help us beat NZ opposition?

They are simply too good for our teams.

No complaints about the Reds presence in the Wallabies then

I don't really agree, the Reds have a way better squad than the Force and Rebels (and Pasifika...) yet both of them jagged a Kiwi win last year

They look out of ideas and going backwards. So to answer your question yes I think a new voice would assist. They keep losing in the same way which is a huge concern.

 

[PhilClinton]

I think one factor that is being understated during this 'decline' is the impact JOC (James O'Connor) had when he arrived vs the downturn in his play/injury status now.

We really got a prime version of JOC (James O'Connor) for Super Rugby when the Reds had their great 2020 and 2021 AU seasons, going as far as winning Super Rugby player of the year. Since then, he's been plagued with injuries and even before then, looked well off the pace from the earlier seasons. Not surprising, the bloke is 33 this year and once you reach 30+ the form cliff can be pretty steep.

Not many teams can survive the decline in an international quality playmaker and then quickly backfill the role with someone, even though Creighton has been good and Lynagh will hopefully be a long term answer, but neither playing at a level close to where JOC (James O'Connor) was in 2020/21.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

So Thorn is the second longest serving Reds coach now and its definitely stagnated (you could say regressed)

JOC (James O'Connor) isn't the same players as you say @PhilClinton which isn't his fault. It happens.

Recruitment and retention is clearly a problem. Tupou is an obvious red flag being so recent, but it made me think about it when I saw Mafi at the Rebels and Stewart at the Force.

They had a hard first round being the only Aus team to play a Kiwi team sure but I don't know where the improvement will come from.

McReight and Wilson do work their rings off every game and I think enhance their reputation in a team going backwards. If we read into some of the things Eddie has said about wanting workers and effort those guys don't stop.

 

[dru]

So Thorn is the second longest serving Reds coach now and its definitely stagnated (you could say regressed)

JOC (James O'Connor) (James O'Connor) isn't the same players as you say @PhilClinton which isn't his fault. It happens.

Recruitment and retention is clearly a problem. Tupou is an obvious red flag being so recent, but it made me think about it when I saw Mafi at the Rebels and Stewart at the Force.

They had a hard first round being the only Aus team to play a Kiwi team sure but I don't know where the improvement will come from.

McReight and Wilson do work their rings off every game and I think enhance their reputation in a team going backwards. If we read into some of the things Eddie has said about wanting workers and effort those guys don't stop.

I don't think recruitment is the problem. If you look at our lock depth, then compare it to the locks we have recruited and developed over (say) the last 5 years, I think we've done well. And we can give Thorn some kudos there. Similar for loose forwards. Recruitment of the front row is the same problem as everywhere. We seemed to have had the development of props sussed with Lillycrap but now not so much. Until recently, our development of fly halves has been questionable, improving Creighton and Lynagh to change that I hope. We've done well at halfback and mostly the rest of the back line.

Longevity, injury management, S&C - and then retention. That should be our focus for improvement.

I guess I've been questioning Thorn's role in going forward. Still do really - but looking at the above, he's been a lot better than average in development and he's played his role in recruitment. More than that, he has some proven strengths.

 

[scrans21]

This is the team I'd be playing for round 2 if we have Wright, Jones and O'Connor available:

1. Sef Fa'agase
2. Richie Asiata
3. Zane Nonggorr
4. Ryan Smith
5. Luke Jones
6. Liam Wright
7. Fraser McReight
8. Harry Wilson
9. Tate McDermott
10. Tom Lynagh
11. Filipo Daugunu
12. Isaac Henry
13. Hunter Paisami
14. Josh Flook
15. Jordan Petaia
16. Matt Faessler
17. Dane Zander
18. Peni Ravai
19. Seru Uru
20. Connor Anderson
21. Kalani Thomas
22. James O'Connor
23. Taj Annan/Mac Grealy/Floyd Aubrey

Having Jones and Wright back shores up our lineout and breakdown and as much as I love Uru I think his impact late game will be a lot more valuable than if he was starting. Fa'agase and Asiata to start which should hopefully shore up our scrum and add a bit more grunt. I thought our backline actually played well so no changes to the starting 9-15 but having O'Connor on the bench will hopefully give us some direction in the second half and help to prevent another late game collapse. I'm not sure how long Campbell is out for but if he's available he comes straight onto the bench at 23. If he isn't then anyone of the younger backs could get a run.

 

[PhilClinton]

I don't think recruitment is the problem. If you look at our lock depth, then compare it to the locks we have recruited and developed over (say) the last 5 years, I think we've done well. And we can give Thorn some kudos there. Similar for loose forwards. Recruitment of the front row is the same problem as everywhere. We seemed to have had the development of props sussed with Lillycrap but now not so much. Until recently, our development of fly halves has been questionable, improving Creighton and Lynagh to change that I hope. We've done well at halfback and mostly the rest of the back line.

Recruitment is different to development though.

Thorn and his team have been great at identify talent and bringing them into our system, then developing them (to a point, seems to be some stagnation as noted by many).

If you look at our recruitment outside those channels, it is pretty limited. I don't think we've attracted any Wallaby talent to the club over the past 4 years aside from JOC (James O'Connor)? And we've lost around 5 Wallabies to other clubs/overseas in that period.

 

[SouthernX]

Anyone know if the below players will be available to play next week?

• James O'Connor
• Liam Wright
• Angus Blyth
• Jock Campbell
• Luke Jones
• Josh Nasser
• Suliasi Vunivalu
• Connor Vest

anyone know what has happened to Keynan Tauakipulu?

Another name I fear is in our reds injury casualty ward - he was named in the trial match over in Perth but haven’t seen him in a lineup since? Assumed he would of been available for reds academy match over weekend

 

[Ignoto]

Humor this idiot, but those saying recruitment is an issue, which player/s were on the market in the last two seasons that could have come into the Reds and put us in a better position?

The biggest challenges from recruitment we've had in my eyes is losing BPA and Carter Gordon. Gordon's development appeared to be on track to take over JOC (James O'Connor) and we wouldn't have had such growing pains last year with Creighton or this year with Lynagh.

BPA's departure along with Mafi's injury last year was huge. When we look at Australia hookers, who was available to come in? FF (Folau Fainga'a) is the only one who comes to mind.

I thought they did quite well to get Jones in and then Peni in at short notice after TT's injury.

 

[Doritos Day]

The Reds don't deal with one of the biggest player agents in the sport - they've artificially made the market smaller for themselves.

 

[JRugby]

This is the team I'd be playing for round 2 if we have Wright, Jones and O'Connor available:

1. Sef Fa'agase
2. Richie Asiata
3. Zane Nonggorr
4. Ryan Smith
5. Luke Jones
6. Liam Wright
7. Fraser McReight
8. Harry Wilson
9. Tate McDermott
10. Tom Lynagh
11. Filipo Daugunu
12. Isaac Henry
13. Hunter Paisami
14. Josh Flook
15. Jordan Petaia
16. Matt Faessler
17. Dane Zander
18. Peni Ravai
19. Seru Uru
20. Connor Anderson
21. Kalani Thomas
22. James O'Connor
23. Taj Annan/Mac Grealy/Floyd Aubrey

Having Jones and Wright back shores up our lineout and breakdown and as much as I love Uru I think his impact late game will be a lot more valuable than if he was starting. Fa'agase and Asiata to start which should hopefully shore up our scrum and add a bit more grunt. I thought our backline actually played well so no changes to the starting 9-15 but having O'Connor on the bench will hopefully give us some direction in the second half and help to prevent another late game collapse. I'm not sure how long Campbell is out for but if he's available he comes straight onto the bench at 23. If he isn't then anyone of the younger backs could get a run.

I think Lynagh struggled defensively. He slipped off a number of tackles (that he admittedly shouldn't have had to make if we'd been more composed with ball in hand and not handed the ball to the canes to attack from broken play). Feel he's still better served as our back up 10

 

[Qldtragic]

The Reds don't deal with one of the biggest player agents in the sport - they've artificially made the market smaller for themselves.

Isn't Paisami in this stable? Reds must have some contact I reckon. Think it is more a case of The Big Agent uses the reds as back up and guides his troops elsewhere as a first choice.

 

[TSR]

I’m not convinced that the result on Saturday was the disaster it first appears, although I still have plenty of concerns.

In pre-season interviews there was specific reference to the Reds having to change their style and a recognition that a safety first, ball retention strategy wasn’t likely to yield results. This is an approach I agree with. However it comes with risk. Not the least that it takes a while to get this sort of game plan to click.

The Hurricanes are the team who have consistently been best at open, high tempo rugby. (The Crusaders style is a bit more traditional, but they are just so good at it, they often look like they are freewheeling while the Blues up until 2 yrs ago have struggled to be successful). On the weekend we tried to outgun them but it backfired. In the last 25 minutes we were completely gassed and we had a number of rookies on. It’s not their fault - the damage was already done - but the Canes got a significant lift from their bench and we went further backwards. However, IMO, it does mean the score line just blew out.

Having said that - changing styles may or may not be necessary - but it doesn’t matter either way if we can’t do it successfully.

My couple of chief concerns -
- if the Canes can run us off our feet, so too can all the other Kiwi teams plus potentially the Drua. We can only hope match fitness brings us up to speed but there needs to be a focus on continuing to keep the tempo of games up
- we need luck with injuries. We just don’t have the depth to be missing 5-6 of our best 23. Unfortunately it is very unlikely in this standard of comp we won’t be regularly missing roughly that number
- having a set piece platform remains as important as ever. I don’t think our starting tight 5 were too bad, but they weren’t good enough. In particular at set piece. I think we particularly need to nail our line out as I think our scum is going to be under pressure and I don’t know if we can fix that in season
- we need better tackle accuracy. Missing tackles just adds to the fatigue and becomes a vicious circle

I’m not sure this is anything more than a list of obvious issues but I have been watching sport long enough to know that first round results are often a very misleading indicator of season success.

So I’m clinging to that. Desperately.