dru, get your point but I honestly think the 2021 media rights picture for rugby is more complex than that and that the 2021 'rugby media rights $ pie size' heavily depends upon the pro comp model design for 2021 (assuming we all get there) that any candidate broadcasters insist upon. (And btw as you know it's far from clear if we will find a motivated broadcaster for a 2021-dated traditional media rights deal, hence my and others' ideas re a radical new RA-owned streaming service as potentially the only way forward.)
Back to the Reds 2021 situation:
1. My principal point is that if the Rebels are culled - their circumstances are extremely fragile and RA is definitely considering this, in part that is the reason why all RA CEOs post COVID have said 'we cannot give any assurances as to what teams there will be in pro rugby in 2021' - then that nominally allocated RA grants-to-local-RUs money would be distributed in 2021 3 ways and not 4.
2. RA simply may not be able to convince a broadcaster that 4 (or 3) 2021 'Super' state/territory based teams here solely playing each other with, say, no TT element, is economically viable. Any funding broadcaster may well insist that a TT element to (a) give a greater number of teams playing each weekend and _crucially_ (b) to hold on to Kiwi expats' viewership here that it is known prop up Foxtel's rugby viewing nos big time, is absolutely essential.