Strewthcobber
Simon Poidevin (60)
How are the scrum and linout ranked?
Reds 2017
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How are the scrum and linout ranked?
T
Train Without a Station
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Fair enough Thinker.
I guess it comes down to how accurately we consider those rankings to reflect strength.
Personally I don't think the scrum stats do, because they merely reflect scrum completion.
The Reds once had a scrum aimed on quickly winning the ball. They now have one based on dominance.
Whilst scrum completion statistics may not reflect it, I certainly have the opinion our scrum has improved since 2011. We have gone from trying to minimize it's damage to using it as a weapon.
Do you think we had the 11th best scrum in the competition last season for example?
The line out stats I certainly do agree with. We have always had a very strong line out.
I guess it comes down to how accurately we consider those rankings to reflect strength.
Personally I don't think the scrum stats do, because they merely reflect scrum completion.
The Reds once had a scrum aimed on quickly winning the ball. They now have one based on dominance.
Whilst scrum completion statistics may not reflect it, I certainly have the opinion our scrum has improved since 2011. We have gone from trying to minimize it's damage to using it as a weapon.
Do you think we had the 11th best scrum in the competition last season for example?
The line out stats I certainly do agree with. We have always had a very strong line out.
Thinker
Darby Loudon (17)
I think there are elements of availability bias there. I think Stiles has done an amazing job with the young guys, but we forget the scrum was more than "good" under Link, we had a number of pushovers for example.
We all had more to remember (eg positives) back then and it wasn't our only attacking option. Whereas now, it's all we have.
There is also the thought that is often ignored, could the scrum preparation be impacting on overall team performance.
We certainly all hang our hats on scrum "dominance" over the last 3 years, but I don't think the 40+ teams who have beaten us would consider that way.
RedsHappy
Tony Shaw (54)
Re Stiles and wonderful scrums and line outs.
One, having a consistently strong scrum and line out is in no way a free-standing, outcome-determining KPI as to how successful a Super team will be - the Reds' recent seasons prove that decisively. The Reds 2011 season shows that a mediocre scrum can be sustained within a winning team if so much else is done well and consistently so. Better to have a good scrum and line out than not, but building a winning Super team obviously requires a large number of other capabilities and KPIs.
Two, being a solid set-piece coach does not necessarily a successful HC make. No better example than M Foley moving in 2009 to the Tahs and then to HC there and then onto HC at the Force.
In my opinion the veracity of point one above has just grown and grown in the last two seasons. Why?
Principally as the NZ Super teams have grown better and better and are better and better coached. Their relative superiority is so clear. The standards required for a victorious Super team have been significantly upgraded. The very meaning of what a viable Super HC is required to be has shifted. What was true 5 years ago is now long gone.
It will take an exceptionally skilful Reds 2017 and onwards HC + his coaching team to get the Reds into a state where they can beat Kiwi teams enough times home and away so's to get into the top 8 and beyond. I mean: very, very, skilful.
If indeed Stiles is appointed HC, those so choosing had better be quite sure this person has very large reservoirs of hitherto untapped head coaching and general rugby-related analytical and leadership skills. In terms of positive actual results to justify this choice they have only NRC outcomes to rely on.
Compare NRC standards with how the Chiefs, Highlanders and Hurricanes are playing and we can see the 'known risk gap' when picking a coach who's only proven NRC outcomes.
One, having a consistently strong scrum and line out is in no way a free-standing, outcome-determining KPI as to how successful a Super team will be - the Reds' recent seasons prove that decisively. The Reds 2011 season shows that a mediocre scrum can be sustained within a winning team if so much else is done well and consistently so. Better to have a good scrum and line out than not, but building a winning Super team obviously requires a large number of other capabilities and KPIs.
Two, being a solid set-piece coach does not necessarily a successful HC make. No better example than M Foley moving in 2009 to the Tahs and then to HC there and then onto HC at the Force.
In my opinion the veracity of point one above has just grown and grown in the last two seasons. Why?
Principally as the NZ Super teams have grown better and better and are better and better coached. Their relative superiority is so clear. The standards required for a victorious Super team have been significantly upgraded. The very meaning of what a viable Super HC is required to be has shifted. What was true 5 years ago is now long gone.
It will take an exceptionally skilful Reds 2017 and onwards HC + his coaching team to get the Reds into a state where they can beat Kiwi teams enough times home and away so's to get into the top 8 and beyond. I mean: very, very, skilful.
If indeed Stiles is appointed HC, those so choosing had better be quite sure this person has very large reservoirs of hitherto untapped head coaching and general rugby-related analytical and leadership skills. In terms of positive actual results to justify this choice they have only NRC outcomes to rely on.
Compare NRC standards with how the Chiefs, Highlanders and Hurricanes are playing and we can see the 'known risk gap' when picking a coach who's only proven NRC outcomes.
dru
David Wilson (68)
@RH I'm with pretty much everything you say.
My only counter is "would it improve the HC selection for us to drive from our knowledge base at G&G?"
OK so that's a tad facetious, but do we think that the HC selection group doesnt understand these things? It's the most thorough selection group and the most thorough selection process we have seen. Yes it would be ironic if an international search again ended up in the famed Ballymore car park.
My only gripe with the process is the pair of current ARU selectors, who a) double up withe Force process (though I'm reasonably confident that any compromise would be to the Force) and b) have decided that Aussies are better for the WBs - which kind of makes the international flavour of the the search somewhat subdued. Pointless even.
I also suspect that Lancaster would be compromised due to the Herbert role. If Lancaster was best for the role I'd rather that issue was resolved outside of the HC selection.
Its the best process we have had. Its also what we've got.
My only counter is "would it improve the HC selection for us to drive from our knowledge base at G&G?"
OK so that's a tad facetious, but do we think that the HC selection group doesnt understand these things? It's the most thorough selection group and the most thorough selection process we have seen. Yes it would be ironic if an international search again ended up in the famed Ballymore car park.
My only gripe with the process is the pair of current ARU selectors, who a) double up withe Force process (though I'm reasonably confident that any compromise would be to the Force) and b) have decided that Aussies are better for the WBs - which kind of makes the international flavour of the the search somewhat subdued. Pointless even.
I also suspect that Lancaster would be compromised due to the Herbert role. If Lancaster was best for the role I'd rather that issue was resolved outside of the HC selection.
Its the best process we have had. Its also what we've got.
T
Train Without a Station
Guest
Thinker I agree with your point regarding the rest of the game.
Merely saying that my observations are that we've strengthened our scrum in his time. Previously we gained success through getting it over and done quickly. We now gain success through dominant pushing.
The Reds line out was not as strong at stealing opposition ball this season, but considering we lost 2 of our best players at this (Horwill and Thomson), whilst losing another 2 of our best for most of the season (Simmons and Schatz), this disruption should at least be considered when assessing. We still remained 3rd for our own ball. But we've always had a good line out so that's less important to consider.
RH nobody is saying that should be looked at in isolation. We're merely commenting on how we think Stiles has strengthened the areas that he is solely responsible for.
Prior to the Chiefs job Dave Rennie had only been a senior head coach at NPC level. His one time as a Super Rugby assistant, the Hurricanes finished 9th of 12. His last appointment as an NPC Head Coach was with Manawatu from 2005 to 2011.
In 2005 Manawatu were in the 2nd division. From 2006 to 2010 (they were relegated to the 2nd division for 2011) they won a total of 10 games, never winning more than 4 games in a single season.
Compared to Rennie's senior rugby experience, Stiles appears to be reasonably well qualified.
Merely saying that my observations are that we've strengthened our scrum in his time. Previously we gained success through getting it over and done quickly. We now gain success through dominant pushing.
The Reds line out was not as strong at stealing opposition ball this season, but considering we lost 2 of our best players at this (Horwill and Thomson), whilst losing another 2 of our best for most of the season (Simmons and Schatz), this disruption should at least be considered when assessing. We still remained 3rd for our own ball. But we've always had a good line out so that's less important to consider.
RH nobody is saying that should be looked at in isolation. We're merely commenting on how we think Stiles has strengthened the areas that he is solely responsible for.
Prior to the Chiefs job Dave Rennie had only been a senior head coach at NPC level. His one time as a Super Rugby assistant, the Hurricanes finished 9th of 12. His last appointment as an NPC Head Coach was with Manawatu from 2005 to 2011.
In 2005 Manawatu were in the 2nd division. From 2006 to 2010 (they were relegated to the 2nd division for 2011) they won a total of 10 games, never winning more than 4 games in a single season.
Compared to Rennie's senior rugby experience, Stiles appears to be reasonably well qualified.
Simon.
Bob Loudon (25)
Yeah it's pretty ridiculous to say we had the 11th best scrum last year. Greg Holmes single-handedly worked his way back into the Wallabies for the 2015 RC and then the RWC on the back of the 11th best scrum?
We had the strongest scrum in the competition last year, certainly the strongest first-line scrum. Not sure how we ended up 11th in terms of own scrum success but I'm guessing it's the teams who tried to just clear the ball as quickly as possible that topped the list (no surprise all Kiwi teams are 5 of the top 7). Teams that aim to keep the ball in and use their scrum as a weapon are probably at a higher probability of being on the wrong end of the ref's discretion of collapsing/wheeling, or the ball popping out.
The Lions had a strong scrum last year too and they are even lower than the Reds. Not helped by the penalty try we put on them.
We had the strongest scrum in the competition last year, certainly the strongest first-line scrum. Not sure how we ended up 11th in terms of own scrum success but I'm guessing it's the teams who tried to just clear the ball as quickly as possible that topped the list (no surprise all Kiwi teams are 5 of the top 7). Teams that aim to keep the ball in and use their scrum as a weapon are probably at a higher probability of being on the wrong end of the ref's discretion of collapsing/wheeling, or the ball popping out.
The Lions had a strong scrum last year too and they are even lower than the Reds. Not helped by the penalty try we put on them.
Scrubber2050
Mark Ella (57)
Think we going to need dome very good assistants.
Obviously Thorn and Jason Gilmore would be a good start.
Obviously Thorn and Jason Gilmore would be a good start.
T
TOCC
Guest
When ranking scums you need more then just 'scrum success' to paint the full picture.. Penalties conceded and penalties forced are equally as important which are not necessary reflected in the 'scrum succes percentage'..likewise tight head scums and penalty tries from scrums.
Just look st Greg Holmes in 2013, he was one of the most penalised props in the comp with 23 penalties conceded, the year before Nick Stiles arrived on the scene, penalties he conceded have dropped since then to 9 in 2015 and 3 in 2016.
It was only in 2014 that Holmes and Slipper switched sides, up until that point Holmes was predominately at Loose Head and Slipper had only ever player Tight Head at Super Rugby level.
Just look st Greg Holmes in 2013, he was one of the most penalised props in the comp with 23 penalties conceded, the year before Nick Stiles arrived on the scene, penalties he conceded have dropped since then to 9 in 2015 and 3 in 2016.
It was only in 2014 that Holmes and Slipper switched sides, up until that point Holmes was predominately at Loose Head and Slipper had only ever player Tight Head at Super Rugby level.
Brumby Jack
Steve Williams (59)
All to be revealed, officially, at 11 tomorrow
The torpedo
Peter Fenwicke (45)
Off-topic but recently NASA sent a probe to the moon to take photos of the earth. This is what came back from said probe:
Strewthcobber
Simon Poidevin (60)
Rugby stats - at least the publicly available ones, are so far behind other sports it's almost unbelievable.
The torpedo
Peter Fenwicke (45)
Stiles it is then.
The whole QRU board must drive Hondas if they didn't go beyond the Ballymore car park
upthereds#!
Peter Johnson (47)
So if it's Stiles. One can imagine MOC will leave. (heard a rumour he is already acting dejected).
This means with the promotion of Thorn (to support Stiles in the forwards) then should get 2 x assistants? 1 x Backs/Attack and 1 x Defence.
Any suggestions on an assistant or 2?
This means with the promotion of Thorn (to support Stiles in the forwards) then should get 2 x assistants? 1 x Backs/Attack and 1 x Defence.
Any suggestions on an assistant or 2?
upthereds#!
Peter Johnson (47)
Scott Wisemantel is an experienced backs coach and an aussie. He applied for the top gig, but would he accept an assistant role to get back to Super Rugby?
M
Moono75
Guest
So if you guys get Stiles, does that mean the new Force head coach is the guy currently cleaning the toilets at Ballymore?
Only if the Force have undertaken a worldwide search.
In other news the Ballymore car park has been renamed "Worldwide".
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