We are now two thirds of the way through the QLD Colts 1 Comp this year and coming down to the business end of the season with six games to go in regular season and thought I would have a look at what the chances are for teams to make the finals.
I believe the top two spots are sewn up.
Brothers look unbeatable and short priced favourites for the Minor premiership. The hardest decision they will have to make is who to drop out of the forwards for Wood, Wilson and McReight when they come back from First Grade to strengthen the ranks for the finals.
Wests would have to lose at least three games and Souths to remain undefeated for rest of season (which is unlikely as Souths play Brothers this weekend) not to finish in second spot.
Saying that, I believe Souths have already wrapped up third spot.
So it comes down to one spot left for a chance in the finals for the 2018 Colts 1 premiership and there are four teams positioned to have a red hot go as long as they get rid of their wobbles and gain some consistency in their results.
Uni, Sunnybank, Bond and GPS are all a chance.
Uni are limping home with injuries severely testing their depth. They only have to win their next three games (v Sunnybank, Logan, Norths) with a bonus point here or there and they will seal the deal. This Saturday could be their finals decider v Sunnybank. If they lose that game, all three of their last games (v Wests, GPS, Souths) could become sudden death finals, which will leave them exhausted before they actually get to the finals.
In the last couple of weeks Sunnybank have been playing like a shadow of the team they could have been this year. Little punch in the forwards and thin on the ground with their backs. I can see them losing four of their last six games (v Uni, Easts, Brothers, Bond, Souths and Logan) and will struggle to make the top four.
Bond and GPS look as though they are now getting the teams they want on the park and are coming home strongly. Depending on the Uni v Sunnybank game this Saturday, if either of Bond or GPS win four of their last six games they have a chance to make the dance off for the premiership.
Bond are best placed at the moment for fourth spot on the ladder and have Easts, Brothers, Souths, Sunnybank, Logan and Norths ahead of them. So a w in four of these games is gettable. Their deciding match for the finals will be in third last round v Sunnybank and if they win that and get bonus points in at least three other games, they might just scrape through to finals.
GPS are a longer shot. A poor run of results since they played Logan earlier in the year has put them on the back foot. However, great results in last two games against Bond and Sunnybank could mean they are a team on the rise with anything possible. They have Logan, Norths, Wests, Souths, Uni and Easts ahead. Depending on other games, four wins and a few bonus points will get them close. A fifth win could seal the deal. Four is doable but a fifth against Wests or Souths will not only get them there but I believe will also mean they have earned the last spot for the finals.
Unfortunately Norths, Easts and Logan are no chance, but hopefully can still play a disrupting part and set up a platform for next year. It can be turned around in a year, just look at Souths this year compared to last year in Colts 1.