....catch22, the ARU's resources are dictated by the players that they have.. Without a doubt if the Wallabies were winning and playing attractive football, then more people would be watching, more people would be turning up, more merchandise sold and sponsors would be willing to play more, the wallabies wont win anything if they let every player who gets a larger offer from somewhere else, hence the caliber of players is in direct relation to the resources that the ARU has. ....
TOCC - you're absolutely right.
It often strikes me how many posters here either don't appreciate - or perhaps have no interest in - the core economics of the game in Australia, which are in a state of quite serious trend-line deterioration that, if not arrested, will worsen and force the code back into a true niche status that will be highly threatening to its very survival. Once and if that occurs, there will be, around say 2013, a nasty negative tipping point where the down decline commences an exponential phase. The core reason will simply be that the better professional players will (a) not be affordable by the ARU or State RUs as their incomes are materially lowered and (b) the flourishing other codes here or in the EU/Japan will scoop them up and we will simply be local talent developers (up to say U16-18) and player exporters.
As you note, the origins of this problem are readily identified, there's no mysteries here:
- the ARU since 2003 has failed to strategically market, develop and grow the code in a manner sufficiently competitive with other football codes;
- the ARU, in its introversion and complacency, has made the fatal mistake of under-controlling and under-developing ACT, NSW and QLD rugby and allowed these states to gradually deteriorate either financially (worst case QLD, to de facto bankruptcy) and/or play-style wise to the point where almost all rugby states are experiencing declining gates and, bar the occasional Tahs semi-final slot, not winning at the top of the S14 (and thus not reinforcing and building deep fan pride back in the states);
- the Aus rugby states are (mostly) wallowing in managerial and code-growing and coaching mediocrity such that the style of rugby they are playing and promoting is, slowly but inexorably, alienating fans who want feisty wins and dynamic, fast-paced, ball-in-hand oval football al la AFL and league;
- the Wallabies slow decline from 2003 to 2010 is both part-symptom and part-cause of the above, and their decline in w-l ratio (esp vs ABs) and powerful, exciting play-style is fuelling the overall decline in rugby brand attractiveness and game income at a national level, creating further ARU income stresses and related vicious circles;
- generically, the game is Australia has evolved from a private schools, not public, base and thus has been based around a mist of a self-perceived superiority and 'born to always be there' complex which has in part been the genesis the above problems, and certainly, in its continuing insularity and irrational smugness, is today perpetrating them.
Until the above insularity syndromes, and code-critical managerial and coaching issues are decisively fixed, there will only be further decline of Australian rugby, and increasing danger to its core viability. The arrival of the Rebels and the expanded S15 are only a small part of the positive actions required.
