New Zealand vs Australia Oct 11 2020 Bledisloe Cup

[Derpus]

Setting aside the fact that he's clearly not good enough yet, his discipline is the big issue. Can't pick such a penalty prone backrower against the ABs.

For what it's worth (nothing) i'd have 6. Wilson 7. Hooper 8. Samu. Wright on the bench for when the game opens up a little at the end.

Samu to pack down at scrum time at breakaway and play on the fringes. Wilson through the middle more.

 

[Up the Guts]

Maybe Rennie thinks he can bring out the sort of performance Swinton showed in round 1 against the Reds? He obviously rates him in some capacity since he chose him over Dempsey who has experience and was in decent form at the back end of the competition.

It’d be a left field selection, and there would be some risk given his propensity to give away cheap penalties, but I can see arguments for it.

 

[TSR]

I think Swinton’s best is absolutely good enough. His consistency is the issue.

I get the question marks on his discipline. I guess I am taking a leap of faith there.

The big thing there is what premium you place on the lineout. Having Swinton or Wright on the field makes Samu our 4th jumper and gives us a lineout that can potentially match it with anyone. Have Wilson & Samu moves Samu up to 3 and it is decidedly weaker. When our hookers all struggle to various degrees with their throwing, especially when under pressure, and with the importance of the lineout in the modern game I think putting a strong line out on the field is a must.

As much as I love Harry Wilson and want to see him at test level, I don’t think you paid Wilson and Samu together at test level at this stage.

 

[Derpus]

Samu and Wilson seem to complement each other well. Wilson plays in tight (or was for the Reds in the latter half of the season) and does the hard carries. Samu is great out wide and in the lineout.

 

[TSR]

Samu is reasonable in the lineout.

Great is stretching it IMO.

If Samu & Hooper fill two spots, the 3 rd guy needs to play in the middle - which i think all the options can.

The other option is Hanigan who I think is greatly improved this year, but I’d still have the others in front.

Edit: I think Wilson will become our test 8 in time. But Samu is my frontrunner at this time. Incidentally if Rennie goes with Wilson I would still play Swinton at 6 and play him in the wide channel.

 

[Dctarget]

Love the unconventional choices TSR, I hope we try a couple and see how they go.

I've posted this before and I'm excited to see these a XV of players who can trust the men around them. Often you silly plays/penalties because players are trying to carry their team or cover their mates' deficiencies. Regardless of who gets picked all these greener players will have benefited hugely from being in this abnormally large squad with a class coach like Rennie. Shame McKellar or Laurie couldn't join.

A week to go now, soon we won't have to be posting endless permutations and we'll actually have Rennie's list. I think there'll be a few surprises. We all thought leaving out Naisarani was insane so imagine what he will do to the starting list.

 

[TSR]

Thanks DC. Your last point is exactly right. There is always a left field selection or two. I am trying to give some thought to who it might be.

‘Unconventional’ is an interesting word.

I’ve actually considered the 6 position for some time. Swinton wasn’t my first choice. I love both Wright & Wilson and kept trying to rationalise one or even both in. But, in terms of convention, I think Swinton is actually the most conventional choice. I don’t think it is actually that left field.

I complete acknowledge there are other good options. But I do think Swinton is, physically speaking at least, the best fit and most conventional choice at this time.

 

[qwerty51]

I have a sneaky suspicion Swinton will get the first crack at 6.

I just feel his selection over Dempsey and Naisarani says he's not there as a squad member but rather Rennie wants to see what he can do if given a crack straight away.

 

[Silverado]

Haha - well, I did expect that sort of response.

I’ve tried to justify it. I expect plenty will disagree.

The other thing I should have added is that he needs to be consistent - something I think both Wilson & Wright have over him.

But, yeah - Swinton. I’ve actually given it a lot of thought, and that’s my take.

I can see Swinton selected based on game against Reds, but having watched all the Tahs games closely he was often missing and a liability at times with his discipline. Wright would be my pick at 6. I guess we'll find out soon enough

 

[cyclopath]

Hmm, I think Swinton certainly has potential to be pretty good, probably good enough. But he's a very rough diamond and I would be concerned that the ABs will know to get on his face and I'd have doubts he can curb his brain-fart moments. Now maybe Rennie can work with that, but for now I reckon the gamble might not be worth it. Good to have him around the squad to learn what is required and see if he can make that step though.

So, I wouldn't pick him now.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Okay - I’m willing to give this a crack -

1. Slipper
2. Uelese
3. Tupou
4. Salakaia-Loto
5. Phillip
6. Swinton
7. Hooper
8. Samu
9. McDermott
10. O’Connor
11. Koroibete
12. To'omua
13. Petaia
14. Daugunu
15. DHP

16. Fainga'a
17. Sio
18. Ala'alatoa
19. Hosea
20. Wright
21. Gordon
22. Simone
23. Hodge

I’m guessing there will be a few points of contention and I’ll admit I did struggle a bit with the reserve backs, but I’ll go ahead and assume up front that the selection of Swinton is the one almost everyone will take issue with. I’ll say upfront that while I am not trying to be controversial I’ll acknowledge this one will be out there for most. I’ll go as far as to say I expect there is more chance of being wrong than right, give there are 3 other worthy candidates. But, I will back my rational, which is that Swinton is the best fit for the available candidates for 6. Namely -
- he is a good lineout option. Better than Wilson or Valetini. I think this will be vital if Samu & Hooper are the other two backrowers. Even more so if Wilson (or Valetini - not that I think that is likely) gets picked at 8
- he is heavier in contact than Wright. He carries hard and tackles hard and is a bigger body and he’ll take it up to the All Blacks. I love Liam Wright as a player, but he just isn’t physically capable of that
- he has a better work rate than Valetini
- he can do the grunt work in the middle allowing Hooper & Samu to play wide (although I think all the others could too)

The argument against is his disciplineIf they do pick him I assume Rennie will be confident he can curb his aggression and cut out the shoulder charges. If Rennie isn’t convinced than he won’t be picked (and I’d pick Wright instead). I guess the other is his relative inexperience - but when the competition has a total of 3 tests between them I think that is splitting hairs.

The next most controversial call is probably reserve lock. I reckon Simmons gets a raw deal on here by many, and I think he has value in the squad - but I like Hosea and I think we can throw him in with the benefit of possibly our best balanced pack for any years around him.

Interesting picks there TSR. I cannot see Swinton in the starting side, but I do like your willingness to argue the point.

This would not necessarily be my starting side, being a team made up of anyone not in your team, but I reckon it would probably touch up your side.

1. Sio
2. Fainga'a
3. Ala'alatoa
4. Hosea
5. Hanigan
6. Valetini
7. Wright
8. Wilson
9. Powell
10. Lolesio
11. Wright
12. Simone
13. Paisami
14. Ramm
15. Banks/Maddocks (Can't really split them).

That's potentially 9 players from the SRAu winning team against only two in your starting side. I daresay this team would have it over yours in spades as far as the best operating combinations are concerned.

Lock is the only real difficult selection. Clear now that the coaching staff were looking to bring Rory Arnold back in, but they missed an opportunity (imo) to include one of the best performing open play, tight play, lineout guru in-form locks in Cadeyrn Neville and had he been available now he would surely at least make the bench behind Philip and LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto).

Nos 6 and 8 are also a conundrum. Rennie has picked only two No 8s in the squad as I recall - Samu and Wilson. Yet many posters want either one of them to play in the 6 spot where Rennie has identified Wright, Valetini, Swinton and Hanigan (maybe another?) as the options. Is it likely that Rennie will pick one of his two only No 8s to play on the side of the scrum. I really don't think so.

 

[TSR]

BR - I agree that pretty much all your team, except probably Hosea, Hanigan & Paisami (assuming Petaia is fit) could win a starting role. Disagree they would roll the team I posted - but happy to agree to disagree and I do think it’s a fantastic thing that we could even be arguing the point. I reckon there have been a few times recently when our second XV would lose by 50.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Wright for me at 6, Hooper 7 and Samu at 8, with Wilson on the bench covering 6 and 8. Swinton more likely in the mix later games. I agree Swinton not as consistent as others in Au to warrant 23 place at this stage.

 

[TSR]

BR - one really interesting thing I think your post throws up - if/when Lolesio gets a run in the 10 jersey, would be be better served with the experience of White inside, To’omua outside & DHP at the back of do you pick him with Powell, Simone & Banks.

I don’t think there is any chance you go with Powell, Lolesio, Simone & Banks (as a collective) against the ABs - but you might look at them (with Wright on the wing who may or may not be in the test team anyway) against Argentina. At the very least you couldn’t argue it’s not a selection of players in form.

 

[Dan54]

Hmm, I think Swinton certainly has potential to be pretty good, probably good enough. But he's a very rough diamond and I would be concerned that the ABs will know to get on his face and I'd have doubts he can curb his brain-fart moments. Now maybe Rennie can work with that, but for now I reckon the gamble might not be worth it. Good to have him around the squad to learn what is required and see if he can make that step though.

So, I wouldn't pick him now.

Geez I hope Rennie isn't going to pick players on one game, I must admit I haven't seen anything about Swinton that suggests to me he test quality, but I would certainly bow to the Selectors superior knowledge of him.

 

[TSR]

Geez I hope Rennie isn't going to pick players on one game, I must admit I haven't seen anything about Swinton that suggests to me he test quality, but I would certainly bow to the Selectors superior knowledge of him.

If he’d only had one good game he wouldn’t be in the wallaby squad.

 

[Brumbieman]

Having a crack here - and just quietly I reckon we'll win this first one. Not Eden Park, but I've got feeling.....

Just going with the players i'm confident on


Sio/Slipper
Fainga'a
AAA/Thor

LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto)
Valetini
Hooper
Samu

Lolesio
MK
Simone
Petaia


Wilson or Wright on the bench, JOC (James O'Connor)/To'omua on the bench, or one of them and another outside back. A few spots open, but I reckon we'll see something based around that. Probably Phillip in with LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto), White/McDermott for 9, probably Wright on the other wing and no idea who at FB yet.

 

[Froggy]

Swinton hasn't had 'only one good game', he's been pretty good most of the year (excluding discipline), including one stand-out game against the Reds at which he was MOTM. Having said that, imo Dempsey has, overall had a better season and I would have selected him in my squad ahead of Swinton. That's not to be, and given who we have in the squad, I would prefer either Wright or Wilson at 6 ahead of Swinton for my test side. Possibly also Valetini, however I believe you get a much better 80 minute effort from Swinton. I love Valetini's impact, but for me he has to remain committed to the game the whole time he's on the paddock to move to test level.
If, as has been suggested, it is either Samu or Wilson at 8, I would select Samu at 8 and Wright at 6, however I am aware many of you think that makes our back row too small. It certainly doesn't hurt the line-out, as both Samu and Wright are good jumpers. I guess Wilson at 8 and either Wright or Samu at 6 provides more balance.

 

[Silverado]

If he’d only had one good game he wouldn’t be in the wallaby squad.

Yes, but it's a very big squad. I doubt he would of been picked in the normal squad size of 30ish. I could be wrong and you might be right in thinking Rennie will pick him based on his mongrel, but I don't think he has showed enough to be considered yet.

 

[TSR]

To be clear my reason for picking Swinton isn’t that he has mongrel. I see him as the only option that ticks all the boxes I think we need to balance the backrow. All of the other options have shortcomings in particular areas.

The fact that he has ‘mongrel’ is less important to me then the fact that he is 112 kgs, has good lineout stats, has a sound work rate.