Suspect defence set to cost Beale or Cooper
On form, Kurtley Beale and Quade Cooper deserve Test selection. But the chance of both being in the Wallabies starting line-up to play Fiji next month is slim. It's more likely to be a case of one or the other. The reason? Concerns at national level about their defensive capabilities.
Wallabies coach Robbie Deans gave an interesting clue several weeks ago when he said he thought it was clever how Queensland had used Cooper in their defensive patterns this season, which meant occasionally keeping him away from the defensive front line.
Although Cooper, easily the standout five-eighth of the Super 14, has improved in his defence, there is still that slight area of doubt when he is placed under pressure. It is a similar situation with Beale, who has excelled in the last month at fullback for the Waratahs, but who can avoid constant tackling as he is used in the last line of defence.
Deans is interested in trying Beale at fullback, and is likely to do so in the opening Test. But that will probably mean being more conservative in midfield by choosing Berrick Barnes at five-eighth and Matt Giteau at inside centre, while putting Cooper on the bench to be used as a second-half impact player.
In many other areas, Deans's hands will be tied because of the massive injury toll that has rendered at least 15 players unavailable for the June 5 Test.
The options in each position are:
Fullback: Deans will probably go for Beale, but I would go for Adam Ashley-Cooper, opening the way to trial Rob Horne at outside centre. Getting the Test No.13 position right is crucial. Against Fiji would be the ideal chance to blood Horne, who looks as if he is the man to replace Stirling Mortlock, if he can keep his hamstring complaints at bay.
Wingers: Digby Ioane is certain to be one, and on form the other should go to Drew Mitchell. However, if Rod Davies or Luke Morahan were available they would probably have been chosen ahead of Mitchell. Lachie Turner is also pressing hard.
Centres: Giteau has done enough to hold his inside-centre spot, and the Wallabies need a reliable goalkicker. At No.13, if the Test selectors go for Beale at No.15, they will probably play safe and pick Ashley-Cooper, the everywhere man.
Five-eighth: If Will Genia was available Cooper would have been a certainty. As Genia will miss the first month, the selectors are expected to revert to the Waratahs half combination of Barnes and Luke Burgess.
Halfback: Burgess is expected to regain his spot, but his Super 14 form has been patchy, with his erratic passing often putting too much pressure on those around him. I would instead go with Josh Valentine and Brett Sheehan as his back-up because, behind Genia, they were the next best halfbacks in this year's tournament. Genia will walk straight back in when he is fit again.
No.8: Wycliff Palu would be first choice if available. With limited other options, Richard Brown is the clear favourite. It would have been interesting if Scott Higginbotham was around, as he could have been the bolter for the position.
Openside breakaway: David Pocock by a country mile, no doubt about it.
Blindside breakaway: Rocky Elsom has been a bit up and down, but is under no threat at No.6.
Second row: This remains a problem area, and although Deans is looking for youth he has no option but to pick the 32-year-old Nathan Sharpe, the standout second-rower in the Super 14, while Dean Mumm was the next best. Mumm is also an important selection because of his leadership capabilities. Rob Simmons would have threatened if he was available, while Kane Douglas is the second-rower of the future.
Props: It is a case of who is left standing. With Benn Robinson, Ben Daley, Sekope Kepu and Laurie Weeks unavailable, there's not much left. Ben Alexander is a special, while Salesi Ma'afu, despite his problems against the Crusaders, is worthy of a trial at tight-head. There is still some hope that Daley will be available for the Fiji Test, and if so it would not surprise if he is picked at loose-head and Alexander returns to tight-head.
Hookers: Tatafu Polota-Nau will have the responsibility of being Australia's key hooker until Stephen Moore returns. Saia Fainga'a did enough for the Reds this season to earn a spot on the bench.
Captain: Elsom. He will hold on to the spot until the World Cup, with Genia or Pocock taking over as leader from 2012.
At the Wallabies' selection table
Growden's team: Ashley-Cooper; Ioane, Horne, Giteau, Mitchell; Barnes, Valentine; Brown, Pocock, Elsom (c), Sharpe, Mumm, Ma'afu, Polota-Nau, Alexander. Res: Fainga'a, Daley (if fit), Douglas, Hodgson, Sheehan, O'Connor, Cooper.
Likely Test team: Beale; Ioane, Ashley-Cooper, Giteau, Mitchell; Barnes, Burgess; Brown, Pocock, Elsom (c), Sharpe, Mumm, Alexander, Polota-Nau, Daley (if fit).