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Melbourne Rebels 2024

Steve_Grey

Darby Loudon (17)
NRC was a second string competition, it already had a higher-level competition in Super Rugby sitting above it. That is the key consideration here, a weakened Super Rugby will still be the best Rugby competition in Australia and as such will retain the majority of the support it currently has.

Cutting costs is the only way the game survives in Australia. Rugby does not raise sufficient revenue to support itself at the current cost model.
There are also not enough random Billionaires willing to just burn cash to keep the competition afloat while paying a fortune to keep players in Australia.
I don't see how even a salary cap of $2m works - do any of the franchises revenue [not including RA payments] anywhere close to the current $5.5 salary cap (not including coaches salaries, travel costs etc.)? In which case, Super Rugby is simply being bank rolled by RA, which they can't afford?

Numbers reported by AFR were around $5M to cover the running costs for Rebels for the rest of this Super Rugby Season.....how is any of this sustainable, with declining reveue and increasing debt [Waratahs debt also unknown?]. With the current business model, it is easy to see how the Rebels ran up a debt of $20+ mio, as the numbers just don't add up.
 

Proud Pig

Tom Lawton (22)
I don't see how even a salary cap of $2m works - do any of the franchises revenue [not including RA payments] anywhere close to the current $5.5 salary cap (not including coaches salaries, travel costs etc.)? In which case, Super Rugby is simply being bank rolled by RA, which they can't afford?

Numbers reported by AFR were around $5M to cover the running costs for Rebels for the rest of this Super Rugby Season.....how is any of this sustainable, with declining reveue and increasing debt [Waratahs debt also unknown?]. With the current business model, it is easy to see how the Rebels ran up a debt of $20+ mio, as the numbers just don't add up.
I don't know if $2m is achievable but I know it more achievable than the current $5.5m of which you have to spend 95%. Super Rugby is being bank rolled by RA which has to continue as the teams are not self-sustaining. RA cannot afford to bank roll the $5.5m for each team but maybe it can $2m.
 

hoggy

Nev Cottrell (35)
The biggest problem though is that simply cutting expenses doesn't solve your problem if you're lowering the quality of the product to a degree that interest in the competition destroys your revenue.

Personally I don't see the quality of players being able to be substantially reduced without making it a completely non-viable product in terms of charging a reasonable price for memberships and tickets and getting a decent (or any) broadcast deal.

It's an incredibly difficult problem to solve.

I'm not sure there's a solution that doesn't involve private owners being willing to fund ongoing losses. We are essentially seeing this the world over barring a very limited number of exceptions.
Super Rugby has involved something like 6 countries over 5 or 6 continents, had 100' of $millions spent on it, arguably some of the best rugby players in the world playing and some of the best quality rugby teams to grace the fields yet in Australia it has barely raised interest in the game much above that of Suburban rugby club level.
It may be an incredibly difficult problem to solve, but carrying on as is surely is no longer an option.
 
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Brumby Runner

Jason Little (69)
I don't know if $2m is achievable but I know it more achievable than the current $5.5m of which you have to spend 95%. Super Rugby is being bank rolled by RA which has to continue as the teams are not self-sustaining. RA cannot afford to bank roll the $5.5m for each team but maybe it can $2m.
If abandoning the Giteau rule results in the highest standard team turning out for the Wallabies, maybe a $2m salary cap would be well within RA's means?
 

Highlander35

Steve Williams (59)
If you abandon the Gits law in a skeleton program, you could look to structure the "pro" season such that it doesn't significantly overlap with the Japanese Top League or Major League Rugby.

Doesn't help with those who be playing in Europe, but it would certainly open up a lot of options for players to seek extra cash.
 

Strewthcobber

Simon Poidevin (60)
I don't see how even a salary cap of $2m works - do any of the franchises revenue [not including RA payments] anywhere close to the current $5.5 salary cap (not including coaches salaries, travel costs etc.)? In which case, Super Rugby is simply being bank rolled by RA, which they can't afford?
All of them (*noting actually NSWRU, QRU, ACTRU and not Super Rugby teams) make more than $2m from sponsorship, match day revenue and sponsorship each year. The QRUhad $5.5m in sponsorship alone.

I've seen reports that it costs around $13 to $14m to run a Super rugby team in total at the moment, which these three are pretty close to being able to find +- a million or two either way
 

Steve_Grey

Darby Loudon (17)
If you abandon the Gits law in a skeleton program, you could look to structure the "pro" season such that it doesn't significantly overlap with the Japanese Top League or Major League Rugby.

Doesn't help with those who be playing in Europe, but it would certainly open up a lot of options for players to seek extra cash.

Indeed - and they would play more games each year, which they need.
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
All of them (*noting actually NSWRU, QRU, ACTRU and not Super Rugby teams) make more than $2m from sponsorship, match day revenue and sponsorship each year. The QRUhad $5.5m in sponsorship alone.

I've seen reports that it costs around $13 to $14m to run a Super rugby team in total at the moment, which these three are pretty close to being able to find +- a million or two either way

This is my biggest issue with the suggestion. If you drop $3.5m out of the expenditure side which specifically relates to the quality of the product you can put on the field then how much of your revenue falls away?

I'm not at all sure it makes it more sustainable. In my view it probably makes it less viable.
 

Strewthcobber

Simon Poidevin (60)
If you abandon the Gits law in a skeleton program, you could look to structure the "pro" season such that it doesn't significantly overlap with the Japanese Top League or Major League Rugby.

Doesn't help with those who be playing in Europe, but it would certainly open up a lot of options for players to seek extra cash.
JTL runs Dec to May. MLR runs Feb to July.

Doesn't leave much of a window, especially with TRC and international windows. Or do we just play our season through it? Aug to November? And players just forgo an offseason South Africa style?
 

hoggy

Nev Cottrell (35)
This is my biggest issue with the suggestion. If you drop $3.5m out of the expenditure side which specifically relates to the quality of the product you can put on the field then how much of your revenue falls away?

I'm not at all sure it makes it more sustainable. In my view it probably makes it less viable.
It depends on what structure you are involved in, you could spend $20 Million on each Super rugby team and it will not make much difference as people are not interested in the competition, we've had some of worlds the best players, coaches & teams involved in this competition for 20 years.

What makes it less viable is when half your fan base don't give a fuck anymore, that's what's making it less viable.
 

Steve_Grey

Darby Loudon (17)
All of them (*noting actually NSWRU, QRU, ACTRU and not Super Rugby teams) make more than $2m from sponsorship, match day revenue and sponsorship each year. The QRUhad $5.5m in sponsorship alone.

I've seen reports that it costs around $13 to $14m to run a Super rugby team in total at the moment, which these three are pretty close to being able to find +- a million or two either way
If it costs $14M to run a Super Rugby side, there is no way any of the Super Rugby Franchises get anywhere close to that revenue on their own; +/- a million or eight more like?

I understand how the Rebels have got into this debt situation now - it was inevitable.
 

Strewthcobber

Simon Poidevin (60)
If it costs $14M to run a Super Rugby side, there is no way any of the Super Rugby Franchises get anywhere close to that revenue on their own; +/- a million or eight more like?

I understand how the Rebels have got into this debt situation now - it was inevitable.
What do you mean by "on their own"?

Do you mean excluding RA distributing the broadcast revenue to them?
 

Brumby Runner

Jason Little (69)
This is my biggest issue with the suggestion. If you drop $3.5m out of the expenditure side which specifically relates to the quality of the product you can put on the field then how much of your revenue falls away?

I'm not at all sure it makes it more sustainable. In my view it probably makes it less viable.
But how much of RA's revenue would fall away if the Wallabies were at least as strong, or more so with selection available to be the best from o/s? Arguably, the Wallabies win record could increase and the revenue could go up. In any case, it will still be RA who funds most of the Super Rugby teams out of the revenue generated by the Wallabies, so perhaps there would be a happy spot where the revenue would cover the costs of the Super Rugby sides year to year.
 

Raytah

Sydney Middleton (9)
But how much of RA's revenue would fall away if the Wallabies were at least as strong, or more so with selection available to be the best from o/s? Arguably, the Wallabies win record could increase and the revenue could go up. In any case, it will still be RA who funds most of the Super Rugby teams out of the revenue generated by the Wallabies, so perhaps there would be a happy spot where the revenue would cover the costs of the Super Rugby sides year to year.
100%. The wallabies are the golden goose. Buying a Stan subscription is quite binary, so am not convinced that cutting a super team will materially reduce the value of the broadcast rights.

Cutting a team is better than cutting the cap. If RA can save $4m p.a. by cutting 1 team (who if anything has a negative marginal impact on both Wallaby and other super team performances), the business case for super rugby looks okay.
 

hoggy

Nev Cottrell (35)
100%. The wallabies are the golden goose.
They are only the Golden Goose when enough people choose to support them. Australian rugby has had a Wallaby first strategy for 25 years now and it hasn't exactly worked out has it.
The more your domestic market declines the quicker that golden goose turns into a sick duck.
 

Brumby Runner

Jason Little (69)
100%. The wallabies are the golden goose. Buying a Stan subscription is quite binary, so am not convinced that cutting a super team will materially reduce the value of the broadcast rights.

Cutting a team is better than cutting the cap. If RA can save $4m p.a. by cutting 1 team (who if anything has a negative marginal impact on both Wallaby and other super team performances), the business case for super rugby looks okay.
That wasn't exactly my point. I have come around to favouring cutting the cap over cutting a team.

My point is that if the Wallabies continue to generate revenue similar to now, or even increase it if the Wallabies are more successful by selecting from the best overseas, then it just might turn out that that level of revenue is sufficient to cover the additional costs of five Super Rugby teams each with fewer contracted players on lesser value contracts.

It is clear now that RA cannot continue to fund five teams with contracts at the value they now are. And reducing to four teams will just increase the competition for fewer contracts, putting upwards pressure on their value if anything and leading to a bigger exodus of top line players overseas. I don't see that as being a sustainable option.
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
They are only the Golden Goose when enough people choose to support them. Australian rugby has had a Wallaby first strategy for 25 years now and it hasn't exactly worked out has it.
The more your domestic market declines the quicker that golden goose turns into a sick duck.

Rugby Australia has had a "Wallaby first" strategy for the entirety of its existence. It has always been what has created the revenue.

It worked a treat until they actually had to start paying for labour.

There has never been another part of the sport that has created substantially more revenue than the expenditure required to facilitate it.
 

Proud Pig

Tom Lawton (22)
100%. The wallabies are the golden goose. Buying a Stan subscription is quite binary, so am not convinced that cutting a super team will materially reduce the value of the broadcast rights.

Cutting a team is better than cutting the cap. If RA can save $4m p.a. by cutting 1 team (who if anything has a negative marginal impact on both Wallaby and other super team performances), the business case for super rugby looks okay.
I am sorry but the idea that cutting a team will not reduce the value of the broadcast rights is simply fanciful thinking. The broadcaster is in this to make money not as a donation to RA. They will argue that by cutting a team you are cutting a potential viewing market and given Australia's population distribution cutting Victoria is a big issue. They will also argue that 5 teams down to 4 is a 20% decrease in local content. A 25% decrease in potential viewers and a 20% reduction in content will result in the broadcasters pushing for either a 40% reduction in what they pay or arguing that RA has materially changed the nature of the original agreement and will look to exit the agreement. You can bet they already have their lawyers working on it.
 
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