Ey?
5/12 = 41.6%
4/11 = 36.4%
In the mean time RA has had to fight for rational funding against NZRU it's ridiculous to think that improves losing the Rebels/
That's kind of my point. Hardly negotiating from strength.
The TV contracting should be pooled and then distributed evenly based on the number of teams. That's not currently what happens though, each nation has their own broadcast agreement and while RA did manage to negotiate some extra funding from NZ but it's not up to an even distribution.
In the event of of renegotiation and re-organization of the competition RA would be able to push for that more even distribution per teams while asking for less (in total) than they would with 5 times. This would help RA get more money per team they were supporting (at least as a percentage of the total broadcast pool) then what they currently get, putting them in a better position to support those teams. In terms of total payment this would be less (with New Zealand also conceding less) but costs would also be down with one less team to pay grants to, meaning that money could go further. The major potential problem here would be in the existing broadcast agreement - dropping an Australian team would probably see a drop in the payout from Nine/Stan in the remaining year of the current broadcast agreement, how much might depend on the structure of the competition and how much content was provided. Going forward to new broadcast agreements I'm not sure they'd be too significantly impacted, while there is a lot of potential in the Melbourne market all the evidence is that it's not particularly well realized at a super level and the majority of the appetite there appears to be for the very top end content like the Bledisloe. I doubt the New Zealand broadcast deal would be negatively affected at all, the restructure of the competition would probably result in more kiwi derbies, offering better value for an NZ broadcaster. It's worth also noting that NZ are reliant on Australia toa degree and it wouldn't be in their interest playing hardball in these negotiations, not when cutting a team is ostensibly what they've always wanted.
I want to be really clear here though, I'm not advocating the Rebels be cut, what I'm describing is an even worse situation for RA than we have now. What I'm trying to work through here is the potential consequences of the Rebels boards claim against RA - Assume it's successful, RA are out $8 million with conservatively some $20+ million in claims to follow from the Reds, Brumbies and Force for the same money and the Rebels are still $12 million in debt. If that were to happen RA is going to have start making drastic changes for survival, the most obvious of those would be to cut costs by jettisoning the Rebels. Yes it would probably result in an overall drop in revenue, but it would likely cut costs more and give RA some breathing room.
That's why I think this play from the directors is about their own debt and not the survival of the club - whether they get the money out of RA or not they'll still need a massive injection in capitol for the club to survive, likely in the form of a rich owner, ala Twiggy. They can reduce the immediate cost to that potential buyer by getting the $8 million from RA, but leave RA in a position where they can no longer afford to fund the Rebels, and any potential owner would be on the hook for as much as an extra $6 million a year (the current grant from RA), wiping out that saving within 2 years. I would've thought the club was a more attractive prospect for a buyer while there is still capacity for support from RA, even with the full 20 million in debt. In that situation there is probably more room to work with RA and have them take on what portion of the debt they're able to in the knowledge that there are deep pockets coming into the game longer term.