Irrespective of how far the Wallabies go in the comp, I feel that O'Neill will quickly turn his attention to ensuring that the Lions Tour in 2 yrs time is a financial success which he probably regards as being the tru measure of his legacy to Australian rugby (leaving with the till filled, and ARU with a nice surplus). Deans will be part of those plans. He'll survive even a Quarter Final elimination.....
Interesting. The 2013 Lions tour will only be a reliable financial success if the Wallabies from now until early 2013 actually achieve something worthwhile in the sports public's, especially the football public's, eyes. Wallaby-related gross $ income and average gate attendances have been in largely consistent decline since 2004. Much of financial and publicity and game-enthusiam success of of the Wallabies in the crucial 1999-2003 period was squandered thereafter as the wrong type of coaching dominated, the Wallabies' winning strengths faltered, the debacle of RWC 2007, and, just as important, other football codes in this period became better and better managed and worked out how to grow their national footprints and fan bases far better than the ever-insular and self-contented world of Aus rugby, exemplified by a complacent and unimaginative ARU Board gaining its succour from past glories. In large part, this background is the reason why there is so much ARU-driven 'cost cutting' in the code currently; the total income base is fragile and declining, and rugby's % market share v other codes is weakening (as of 2010).
This background is precisely why the Reds' 2011 S15 success was such a crucial, just-in-time economic and fan-rebuilding development for the code as a whole. And why real success at the RWC 2011 was of equal potential importance, the code here desperately needed big-stage positives attracting national media interest and broad fan base recovery. If the Wallabies post 2007 had started knocking BCs and 3N's and Englands over a la much of the golden '90s, that would have had a major impact on fan base and $ income rebuilding, but, despite the ARU's fervent predictions, this did not occur and the Wallabies in 2011 continue to defy the best aspirations of their fans for a team that can be relied up to win way more, and more consistently, than it loses. We beat the ABs in Brisbane; within weeks, we collapse in a crucial game v Ireland.
So, as I have said many times here, the (commercial) viability of the Wallaby 'brand' is delicately poised at this time. Winning the RWC 2011 would be a massive boost, getting into the Final would be highly valuable. Anything less, the business value declines significantly. JO'N knows this. Then there's the major related issue of what kind of team leaves the RWC and enters 2012 and how well it performs in 2012 in BC and 4N terms (back to 'real' 3/4Ns vs 2011's mostly faux version). Looking at the players in this WC that will be Lions candidates, the 2013 Lions have the potential to be quite formidable, and if we extrapolate from what we see of our Wallabies today we could easily lose the Lions series. If the chronic issues of general attitudinal inconsistency, forwards weaknesses, no game plans but 'attack with the Xs', average kicking capability, scrum a relative lottery and subject to 'the right referee', etc continue together with (or because of) ordinary coaching and endless 'development and learning processes' excuses, I would predict that 2012 will simply continue the trend line of decline in fan support and general Wallaby-related income. A Lions tour will always drive single year income up, but if the Wallabies enter 2013 with a long trail of mediocrity (and, perhaps, a poor RWC outcome from 2011), 2013 will certainly not be a 'coffer filling windfall', it will all be a great deal less valuable than the 2001 version.
By 2013, JO'N (now extended in contract by the ARU with limited explanation) will have been ARU CEO for approx 14 years out of an 18 year span. By all contemporary standards of good executive governance, this is an exceptionally long period for one person to dominate an organisation as CEO, despite their qualities. Deans (reappointed on the alleged basis of how well he had developed the Wallabies to early 2011) will be in his 6th year as Wallaby coach. Let us fans hope and pray that these extraordinary indentured tenures deliver results in late 2011 and into 2012 far superior to those achieved in the previous recent periods. If not, it's no exaggeration to state that rugby in Australia could enter a period of genuine commercial peril where a negative 'tipping point' of increasingly weak gross income and fan base decline could see the code irrevocably damaged.
