Hometown Refs

[Strewthcobber]

I wonder how much of SANZAAR getting rid of neutral referees was cost saving and how much of it was improving the work experience of their referee group?

Even with just ensuring the main referee was not from the host country (or the opposition) would presumably increase the number of long trips the referees had to do massively.

There are only 3 Oz refs on the panel. I wonder if we'd even have that many if the knew they'd be spending a month or months in South Africa. (Not that it's a bad place, it's just a very long trip away from home especially for refs who tend to be a bit older.and have families etc)

Much easier sell if most of their games are near to home

 

[RoffsChoice]

I wonder how much is competence. Do the same refs who result in a 3.46 penalty advantage for South Africans do the same for any team? Always for the home team? Always for the team higher on the table?

We've seen a heap of games this weekend of refs in the perfect position to see something and still call it incorrectly. I'd chalk that up to incompetence before anything else.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Rebels3's work has been referenced in a stuff.co.nz piece:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby...ome-refs-towards-south-african-teams#comments

G&GR's tweet-bot looks to have earned an assist.

 

[Ignoto]

Study shows

Hah, goddamn, what a Trumpesque world we live in.

 

[Dismal Pillock]

Rebels3's work has been referenced in a stuff.co.nz piece:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby...ome-refs-towards-south-african-teams#comments

Top shit, Rebs3. Now the challenge for me is chunder out some fake abomination of convincing-looking rugby statisticii c/o Gunston Media, replete with links to dog-rooting websites, and to have it, unchecked and as-is, published by Stuff.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^ it's stuff.co.nz, not theNew York Times so I reckon you're odds-on to get it published. Just front-load it with the stats not the links to dog-rooting websites .

 

[Dan54]

Geez with all due respect to Rebel3 I tend to think this just about sums up NZStuff!!!!

 

[Ulrich]

Okay, this is quite odd, I'm actually working on a similar thing, but my data is showing there is very little difference between any of the refs.

I am more than happy to accept my spreadsheet skills are abhorrent, but it's odd we'd arrive at quite dramatically different conclusions.

Here is my spreadsheet thus far, it's held together with bubblegum and sticky tape.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Ii8JZe3MkMsveT5FrGe-ZWzO16qjf5LR8PaHLzZrnU/edit?usp=sharing

Interesting, using the limited data you have I narrowed it down to this, will have to compare with other nations later.

The source of your stats?

 

[Zero_Cool]

Yeah, I pulled the data (by hand) from the SANZAR website. It's obviously the 2018 results, so there is plenty of scope for incorrect data to have been typed in by me.

I'm planning / hoping to do a whole lot more analysis beyond just the SA vs the World stuff.

 

[Derpus]

We also have to remember that while some saying the refs are not neutral. those generally that are watching the games and disagreeing are certainly not neutral either! So we have to be a little careful.

Hard to get past a purely numerical assessment though Dan (assuming accuracy, which is a big ol' assumption).

 

[Mr Wobbly]

Okay, this is quite odd, I'm actually working on a similar thing, but my data is showing there is very little difference between any of the refs.

I am more than happy to accept my spreadsheet skills are abhorrent, but it's odd we'd arrive at quite dramatically different conclusions.

Here is my spreadsheet thus far, it's held together with bubblegum and sticky tape.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Ii8JZe3MkMsveT5FrGe-ZWzO16qjf5LR8PaHLzZrnU/edit?usp=sharing

I may have found where the discrepancy occurred. I think you have the penalties conceded around the wrong way in a number of games. I noticed it when Ulrich posted a snippet.

E.g. The 11-2 penalty count in the Lions/Tahs game was in favour of the Lions, not the Tahs (big stink after that one).

The next game I checked (I only checked two), Lions/Landers, has it 12-3 in favour of the Landers - also wrong way around.

 

[Zero_Cool]

Wonderful, I guess I'm checking 119 data points! -_-

 

[Sully]

Lots of talk today about hometown refs.

I have been caught up in the outrage before and perceived bias but then again I have always thought it’s probably my bias that is clouding the judgement. So I decided to do some research today on the stats, dating back to the start of the 2017 season.

So the research involved all Super Rugby matches that had a hometown ref in charge of the match against foreign opposition, that stats tell an interesting story

Penalty counts won

Australia - 15 wins 8 losses 3 draws
New Zealand - 16 wins 21 losses 2 draws
South Africa - 36 wins 7 losses 3 draws
Argentina - 3 wins 0 losses 0 draws

Penalty +\-

Australia - (+16)
New Zealand - (-15)
South Africa - (+159)
Argentina - (+19)

Top 10 Penalty Count differential (won)

SA +19
SA +13
NZ +12
NZ +10
AR +10
SA +9
SA +9
SA +9
SA +9


Top 5 Penalty Count differential (lost)

Aus -10
NZ -7
NZ -6
SA -6
Aus -5

On a separate note SA has only lost 2 of the last 29 penalty counts in the republic when reffed by someone from SA.

Apologies if I made a slight error anywhere. This took hours to collate and source. A Sunday well spent haha

Did you see this?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby...bias-by-home-refs-towards-south-african-teams

 

[Ulrich]

I am busy compiling a sheet myself, starting at 2017.

Have so far completed ARG and AUS for 2017. Next is NZ 2017 then RSA 2017.

2017 was a pretty shitty one because no home refs in ARG, many RSA and NZ refs in Australia, even for derbies. Only 1 home AUS ref v ARG and only 2 home AUS refs v RSA teams.

At least 6 home AUS refs v NZ.

Will see how the other 2 pan out, will complete it until at least end of 2019, takes a long time though. Every game on the sheet will contain a link to the page from where I got the stats.

This is what 2017 looks like for Australia. The Argentina page is not even worth showing for 2017.

A positive penalty variance favours the home team, a negative one favours the away team.

 

[Eyes and Ears]

I wonder how much of SANZAAR getting rid of neutral referees was cost saving and how much of it was improving the work experience of their referee group?



Even with just ensuring the main referee was not from the host country (or the opposition) would presumably increase the number of long trips the referees had to do massively.

The original reason was that the player coaches wanted a merit based system where the best referees were appointed to the best games. Cost was a secondary benefit that made it an easy decision to make and a now a very hard one to reverse.

The travel demands for the top Aust and NZ referees hasn't changed that much with the current merit system vs the former neutrality system. I think the South Africans travel a little less. Assistant referees used to travel more under the old system and that doesn't happen much anymore.

 

[Bobby Sands]

Just tell us how much South Africa is actually cheating by?

 

[Up the Guts]

I am busy compiling a sheet myself, starting at 2017.

Have so far completed ARG and AUS for 2017. Next is NZ 2017 then RSA 2017.

2017 was a pretty shitty one because no home refs in ARG, many RSA and NZ refs in Australia, even for derbies. Only 1 home AUS ref v ARG and only 2 home AUS refs v RSA teams.

At least 6 home AUS refs v NZ.

Will see how the other 2 pan out, will complete it until at least end of 2019, takes a long time though. Every game on the sheet will contain a link to the page from where I got the stats.

This is what 2017 looks like for Australia. The Argentina page is not even worth showing for 2017.

A positive penalty variance favours the home team, a negative one favours the away team.

Nice work. Do you have data on neutral referees as well? Would be a nice control group to use, although the averages work as a proxy as well.

 

[Ulrich]

Nice work. Do you have data on neutral referees as well? Would be a nice control group to use, although the averages work as a proxy as well.

All refs and all games are there, so yes, neutrel refs as well. Once the sheet is complete I'll post it and you can filter as such.

 

[Ulrich]

2017 complete. Apologies for any errors. Think I may have missed a game from the AUS conference? There's one fewer game there than in the NZ conference. Makes sense that the SA conference has a few more games because the Kings and Cheetahs were still there.

Anyway, if there are any errors just let me know, or fix it and upload the modification.

Interesting that the Australian conference is the only one where its own (home) teams received more yellows than opposition (that is, overall, which includes derbies).

You can narrow down yourselves.

The overall penalty variance in the SA tab is not so wide when including all games (again, including derbies). SA refs punish AUS and NZ teams near-equally at 3.16 and 3.66 penalties more on average than their SA counterparts.

Australian referees equally punish NZ at 3.66 penalties extra per game compared to their AUS counterparts, but are much more lenient toward South African sides.

New Zealand is by far the most balanced.

Please beware that the AUS and NZ calculations with neutral referees against foreign teams needs to be scrutinised carefully as there are a few games where, for example, SA refs (and other similar instances) were in charge of games in Australia involving AUS and SA teams. Rather odd.

If it looks dodgy just verify I did not make a mistake.

Whoops, forgot the link: http://ulrichh.com/temp/REF.xlsx

 

[Bobby Sands]

2017 complete. Apologies for any errors. Think I may have missed a game from the AUS conference? There's one fewer game there than in the NZ conference. Makes sense that the SA conference has a few more games because the Kings and Cheetahs were still there.

Anyway, if there are any errors just let me know, or fix it and upload the modification.

Interesting that the Australian conference is the only one where its own (home) teams received more yellows than opposition (that is, overall, which includes derbies).

You can narrow down yourselves.

The overall penalty variance in the SA tab is not so wide when including all games (again, including derbies). SA refs punish AUS and NZ teams near-equally at 3.16 and 3.66 penalties more on average than their SA counterparts.

Australian referees equally punish NZ at 3.66 penalties extra per game compared to their AUS counterparts, but are much more lenient toward South African sides.

New Zealand is by far the most balanced.

Whoops, forgot the link: http://ulrichh.com/temp/REF.xlsx

You had Cronje & Gibbs - we have Bancroft & Warner.

I guess the kiwis had Richie, but generally speaking they are more mild mannered than either of our countries.

Even when Richie did cheat (always) he was just so charming