G&GR SuperBru S15 Tipping Comp 2011

[Hawko]

Harry is leading the Superbru global comp. This is despite preicting wrong results in eight of the last thirteen games. Nice to know even he is human after all.

 

[Hawko]

Now that its close to the end of the comp some interesting results are coming out. If you look at the G&GR top 20 you can see:

• the winner is not a significant selector of position. mickeyc is the best results picker and he is only coming 10th.
• Only 7 out of the 20 have a win % over 70%, and the range between players in the top 20 is 68-73%. So margin picking, bonus points and global points are far more significant in defining the top 20.
• petdr is the only one in the top 5 with a win % over 70. All the rest are in the 69's.
• Margin points have significant variations for top 20 players from 14.5 to 18.5, but this does not mean if you have high margin points you will be top, nor that your overall total difference from the margin will be low if your margin points are high.
• Pincus is best at picking margins based on the lowest total difference from the margin, but only 14 points behind him is gjd who has a low margin point score. gjd must be picking the score wrongly by six points a lot of the time!
• The best recipe for success is to pick up some global bonus points. These are awarded for getting top scores in the global game. Get a couple of global outcomes to go your way and you can afford to have a couple of off weeks.
• And our best player Pincus is currently ranked 1018 in the global comp. There are some good descendants of Nostradamus out there.

Its been fun so far and I'm interested to see just how close the win percentages are - no one has cleared out, everyone is at 70+/- 3%. And strangely, the win %ages were way higher in the early rounds. You could deduce from that that picking a winner is getting harder and harder.

 

[ChargerWA]

Well, with one game left it looks like our winner is most likely going to come from the top 3, mickeyc, Tangawizi and stunt333, although technically anyone down to 14th place could win it if they are the only one to pick the winner and get the margin point (no chance).


Hopefully G&GR run a pool in the Winter Test league Superbru are about to run. Should be quite a difficult competition, as due to the shortened 3Ns, they have rolled the Northen Hemisphere test's into the comp as well. Good advantage for those who follow NH rugby.

 

[Tangawizi]

Well, I'd expect MickeyC and myself will be staying loyal to the Reds so if anyone else is going to come over the top they'll have to get on the Crusaders.