Declining participation and ARU plans for the future

[half]

True.

And the problem with the NRC is, broadly speaking, it has no narrative. No reason for being. No hook for the general sports fan to watch, or more importantly to care.

It's an artificial venture, designed to improve our playing stocks. And while it's working an absolute treat in that regard, it's going to take another 10 years before there is any meaningful history, tradition or broader reason for people to really care about it.
.

Bingo

The AFL and NRL have 200 local games, the A-League soon will have about 230 local games. We have about 20.

Offsiders on the weekend made the point how soccer has evolved from being reliant on the Socceroos to the A-League being the main game.

I sign off for a while now as I am repeating myself, however the drums are beating louder we are going to have only four teams. Even the talk of this should have alarm bells going off.

TWAS, Working Class, others of similar ilk, there becomes a point when you fight back, have faith in what you have, have belief in your own game, and be prepared to go back a bit and regroup so you can move forward together.

I honestly don’t think the existing teams ratings would fall if they played in a national domestic competition.

BUT my huge proviso is we spend three to four years in the setup, not rushed like the Nobody Really Cares competition. Gotta be like FFA who spent 3 to 4 years developing their FFA cup and getting everyone on board. We need to follow suit and be inclusive and involve everyone in rugby.

Half,
I'm becoming more and more convinced that you are right.

Be careful many would ban you from the boards with such statements or at the least have doctors check your mental well being.

 

[Omar Comin']

half, how many truly popular domestic sporting competitions do you think can sustainably exist in Australia? and do you think it's more likely that a long season NRC (in replacement of Super Rugby) would more closely rival the success of the A League or the NBL?

My biggest problem with the idea is that I think it's basically certain to be the latter. Not every sport can replicate the relative success of the A League. Rugby, basketball and soccer are reasonable comparable. These are all sports where a pure national competition will always be below the standard of top competitions in the world simply due to economics. Rugby would be the same, salaries would decline and practically all our world class players would leave. Both the A League and NBL are regularly supported by only a fraction of the total soccer and basketball fans in this country, and I think the same would be true of a lower standard national rugby tournament. The difference is the total number of fans. Soccer has a lot more than either rugby or basketball thus that fraction still equals a pretty big number. Unfortunately, I'm not sure there are even as many genuine rugby fans in Australia as basketball fans.

 

[papabear]

I dont think rugby gets the same drop off as soccer.

Super 15 is probably the best non international rugby in the world. Thus most rugby fans wouldn't watch something else in lieu of it.

the A-League and European leagues are chalk and cheese.

For the record I watched the socceroos v japan, havent watched any a league except a highlight of cahills goal.

 

[half]

half, how many truly popular domestic sporting competitions do you think can sustainably exist in Australia?

and do you think it's more likely that a long season NRC (in replacement of Super Rugby) would more closely rival the success of the A League or the NBL?

.

Omar, good questions, my answer to the first is simple leave it too late and there will be no room us to develop a National Domestic Competition in the future. Your analysis is 100% correct.

On a new national domestic competition, as it stands the NRC would fall over in a heap up against the others.

My teams would be the existing 5 Super Rugby sides and either 3 or five new teams. Western Sydney, Hunter / Newcastle / Central coast, and a second Brisbane team.

My reading of the tea leafs is the Reds, Tahs and other Super Rugby sides would still rate about were they do now if not a tad better, Western Sydney would be a hit straight away with the other two sides a slow burn.

Whats important is to plan, lead, take over the issue and drag everyone along, both the NRC and the ARC were rushed IMO done to quieten voices of discontent.

The beyond sad and what at times makes me despair is the NRC when first talked of had two purposes, one being to grow Rugby to the broader community and second to provide a pathway for Shute players to play at higher levels a development league.

Whats resulted is a development league competition with rule changes, that lacks even all or most rugby people supporting it. Given the early claims it makes rugby look foolish and outside rugby its considered somewhat of a joke at worst at best a silly little competition.

No one is watching it and reporting of it is down to posters like WCR and Bret over at the Roar.

The alternative is to maintain the status-que and hope SANDZZAR will grow.

 

[Pfitzy]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Said_Hanrahan

 

[barbarian]

I think building a domestic comp which adds local teams to the existing five Super sides would be a failure.

Rugby's biggest point of difference has always been the international nature of the game, and I can't see why we'd want to turn away from that. We'd just become a shittier version of the NRL.

People genuinely like watching the Crusaders, Hurricanes etc. That's never been the problem. It's just the current structure of the comp and the addition of more new teams has lost a lot of fringe fans.

Super Rugby is unsustainable in it's current format. We need to strip it back to it's roots, and I think the future lies in some sort of Trans-Tasman competition, maybe with the PIs involved.

Call it the Super 12. 5 Aussie teams, 6 Kiwi teams, 1 PI team. No conferences, just a simple round robin, four team finals. Maybe go back to cotton jerseys too while we're at it.

Whether the NZRU would go for that is another thing entirely.
.

 

[Lindommer]

Super Rugby is unsustainable in it's (sic) current format. We need to strip it back to it's (sic) roots....

The 2016 additions have proved to be a bridge too far. The weird conference setup is impossible to follow making for confused fan participation; the Saffers disinclination to travel to Tokyo is a weak sop to them, and the fact one lot of Saffers don't play NZ teams every other year gives them an unreasonable legup. The sixth Saffer side are, frankly, a joke. SANZAAR and World Rugby should tell the SAf government there's no place for political interference in this sport. If that offends them to the point of withdrawing from rugby, call their bluff. The Japanese franchise was always going to have problems while the corporate teams only begrudgingly supported it. Added to a less than wholehearted Japanese effort there's the distance factor for the Saffer and Argentinean teams. The Jaguares? If we want Argentina in the RC we have to allow, and encourage, a professional setup below their national one.

I'd be in favour of scrapping the sixth Saffer side and the Japanese one tomorrow. And I'd encourage the Argies to plan for a second Super side in the medium term, maybe a combined Argentina/Uruguay team based in Montevideo. We also need to do a lot of work setting up manageable conferences to cut down on the exhaustive travel.

 

[Omar Comin']

I think our future should also be tied to Japan/Asia but generally agree Barbarian. Super rugby needs to evolve into closed conferences based on time zones, with international playoffs.

The problem, as you allude to, is that the NZRU want to maintain regular season competition against South African teams. The ARU already went into the last super rugby negotiations favouring a closed Trans-Tasman conference, but this was shut down by both South Africa and New Zealand.

 

[Strewthcobber]

While the ARU and SANZAR think about the future there's some scary news (for them) coming out of the US

the NFL is seeing its ratings tumble in the same way that the Olympics, awards shows and other live events have, falling more than 10 percent for the first five weeks of the season compared with the first five weeks of last season. A continued slide, executives say, could pose an even bigger danger: If football can’t survive the new age of TV, what can?

Hopefully somebody is those offices is doing some risk plannning on a scenario where payTV isn't able to keep on paying more and more every 5 years.

 

[half]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Said_Hanrahan

Pifzy, cheap, playing the man, and I never said or even hinted ruined.

Omar & Barbarian I hope you are right. Also the way things stand my hopes have somewhere between little and no chance of seeing the light of day.

As I posted above my thoughts are well known and simply repeating them is kinda a waste of time so for a little while I will keep my own council and my thoughts and opinions to myself.

 

[half]

While the ARU and SANZAR think about the future there's some scary news (for them) coming out of the US



Hopefully somebody is those offices is doing some risk plannning on a scenario where payTV isn't able to keep on paying more and more every 5 years.

Strew

Do you have a link for that US ratings information.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Omar, good questions, my answer to the first is simple leave it too late and there will be no room us to develop a National Domestic Competition in the future. Your analysis is 100% correct.

On a new national domestic competition, as it stands the NRC would fall over in a heap up against the others.

My teams would be the existing 5 Super Rugby sides and either 3 or five new teams. Western Sydney, Hunter / Newcastle / Central coast, and a second Brisbane team.

My reading of the tea leafs is the Reds, Tahs and other Super Rugby sides would still rate about were they do now if not a tad better, Western Sydney would be a hit straight away with the other two sides a slow burn.

Whats important is to plan, lead, take over the issue and drag everyone along, both the NRC and the ARC were rushed IMO done to quieten voices of discontent.

The beyond sad and what at times makes me despair is the NRC when first talked of had two purposes, one being to grow Rugby to the broader community and second to provide a pathway for Shute players to play at higher levels a development league.

Whats resulted is a development league competition with rule changes, that lacks even all or most rugby people supporting it. Given the early claims it makes rugby look foolish and outside rugby its considered somewhat of a joke at worst at best a silly little competition.

No one is watching it and reporting of it is down to posters like WCR and Bret over at the Roar.

The alternative is to maintain the status-que and hope SANDZZAR will grow.

Rugby in this country is a niche sport that has lost the battle at grass roots level (not in the race). So rugby could not sustain any expanded professional competition as no demand for it. Unless something changes to increase fan interest in the product offered can't see dreams of expanded national competition. Even with changes to create a more appealing rugby product it would still take a long time to turn the ship, particularly given low base rugby operates at grass roots compared with other codes.


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[Strewthcobber]

Strew

Do you have a link for that US ratings information.

Sorry, yep


https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...p_rhp-top-table-main_nfl-720pm:homepage/story

 

[half]

Sorry, yep


https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/nfl-ratings-plunge-could-spell-doom-for-traditional-tv/2016/10/14/a7a23dc2-915f-11e6-9c85-ac42097b8cc0_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_nfl-720pm:homepage/story

Thanks

 

[Rugbynutter39]

While the ARU and SANZAR think about the future there's some scary news (for them) coming out of the US



Hopefully somebody is those offices is doing some risk plannning on a scenario where payTV isn't able to keep on paying more and more every 5 years.

Yep got to win market share against other codes as tv pie for sport not increasing and that seems a tough ask


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[wamberal]

Get used to seeing Cahill's goal, you will see it a lot.

 

[Heavyd]

Rugby in this country is a niche sport that has lost the battle at grass roots level (not in the race). So rugby could not sustain any expanded professional competition as no demand for it. Unless something changes to increase fan interest in the product offered can't see dreams of expanded national competition. Even with changes to create a more appealing rugby product it would still take a long time to turn the ship, particularly given low base rugby operates at grass roots compared with other codes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sadly many in our game seem to be in denial about the health at grassroots. As I've said before Pulver thinks grassroots is Riverview vs Shore. Juniors and Subbies numbers are in long term decline and administrators appear to sit by and shrug their shoulders focussing on rep teams at the expense of rugbys traditions. I fear for the game we love.

 

[Braveheart81]

Sadly many in our game seem to be in denial about the health at grassroots. As I've said before Pulver thinks grassroots is Riverview vs Shore. Juniors and Subbies numbers are in long term decline and administrators appear to sit by and shrug their shoulders focussing on rep teams at the expense of rugbys traditions. I fear for the game we love.

This is the area the ARU can control and I think they have done a good job of improving it in the last few years.

Outside of the ARU throwing a lot of money they don't have at the problem to hire DO's etc. there isn't a lot the ARU can do about junior numbers in the near term. A lot of that comes down to state and local unions and the volunteers that make or break those clubs.

 

[I like to watch]

How about a a start, they stop levying kids to play the game?
Rather than helping the volunteers at the coal face,they keep making things harder for them.

 

[Micheal]

How about a a start, they stop levying kids to play the game?
Rather than helping the volunteers at the coal face,they keep making things harder for them.

How do you suppose they pay for absolutely everything else they do as the administrators of rugby in this country?

With the three inbound tests they have each year and the poultry TV rights cash? Damned if they do, damned if they don't. Its either that or cut funding across the nation for things like grass roots, Super clubs etc.

I play Subbies and Viva 7s (the latter which cost me ~$120 for a handful of nights of touch rugby) and I'd happily pay more.

I consider it a donation more than anything.