Ok, so Waverley has shown that Barker may be unbeaten but they're not invulnerable. If you were coaching Trinity, how would you plan to beat them this week?
Every now and then it happens that a team that is, objectively speaking, man-for-man weaker, beats a team that is, on form and on paper, stronger. Sometimes this happens because the stronger team is complacent (think Tonga 16 Australia 11, 1973); sometimes it happens because the weaker team plays with an extraordinary level of commitment (Munster 12, New Zealand 0, 1978) and sometimes it happens because everything the weaker team attempts comes off (France 24 new Zealand 19, 1979). But mostly it happens because the weaker team adopts a good strategy and implements it well.
So, what should Trinity do? I mean in terms of strategy - obviously a lot turns on what coaches call "execution". Don't drop the ball. Make the first-up tackles. Get the basics right. That stuff matters a lot. But what's the game plan?
Well, for what they're worth, here are my thoughts.
1 Love the one you're with
Or, to put it another way, the game plan needs to suit the players you actually have. For Trinity, that's a tough pack with a big tight five, a bit of talent in an unco-ordinated back line, and no kicking game to speak of. It would be great to have the speedy backs and mobile pack of the 2011 side, but those guys have gone. Trinity needs to recognise that its strategy must match the talent that it puts on the field.
2 Get the big men running at the backs
Obviously if Trinity can win, it needs to happen in the forwards. But while Barker has a no-stars, no-frills pack, the team's defence has been excellent all year and no-one (except perhaps Waverley last week) has succeeded in outmuscling the Barker pack. by all means Trinity should take them on; but that's not a winning strategy. The winning strategy is to line up the big men (McLean, Satiu, King, Corias and whoever else makes it onto the field) and get them running hard at Barker's backs. Attack Smerdon at 10 and Stoltz at 12. Work the blind side and force Davis and Jones to defend. Why? Well, they're all good defenders, so it's not attacking a weakness per se. But it increases the odds of ground being made, because of the imbalance of size, and more importantly, the goal should be to grind Barker down and wear them out. Forcer those backs to tackle, and tackle, and tackle, and wear them down.
3 Patience
Trinity needs to accept that they don't have players who csan score at will from anywhere on the field. On the other hand, no-one stops McLean (five tries from four games) close to the line, and Satiu is just as dangerous. So Trinity needs to hold the ball and grind away. If there's a choice between throwing a miracle pass and holding possession, hold possession. Patience is everything. Except for discipline. That's everything, too.
4 Kick for touch only
Whicker, Trinity's 9 and captain, has developed the habit of hoisting the ball downfield from a scrum or ruck inside his own quarter. Pointless against Barker - that just gives Jones a chance to run back at you, and who needs that? It will suit Trinity better to hold the ball, and kick only for territory and then only for touch. Sure, Barker will win the lineout, but there's a world of difference between running against a settled defence from a set piece and running in broken play. And a slower game works in Trinity's favour.
5 Take the points when they're there
Ebeling isn't the world's greatest goal-kicker, but he's OK. If Trinity gets a penalty within forty metres of the line - take the shot. Tap-and-go is all very well, but Barker defends really well, and if they give you a chance of scoring, you'd be well advised to take it. There's no shame in scoring points three by three.
There - that's how I'd do it anyway. You'd never guess, would you, that I played at Sydney University when Dave Brockhoff and Rupert Rosenblum were still key influences on our game? If Trinity plays like this, it won't be pretty. But I'd sooner grind out a 12-11 win than lose 46-28 in a festival of running Rugby. I guess I should add one more point:
6 Be lucky
It was Napoleon who said, when asked what qualities he most admired in a general, "luck". Trinity needs to hope it keeps raining - a slow ground helps them. They need to hope Ola Moala makes a miracle return to fitness. They need to hope that Jones has an off day. They need the fifty-fifty calls to go their way.
I don't make predictions any more. But I'll say this. Barker is the better team. But if, on the day, Trinity can be the smarter team, it could be quite a game.