Brumbies vs Reds, Friday 1st of July, GIO Stadium Canberra

[Scotty]

My takeaways from the game:

- Cubelli's 15 minute stint was better than anything we've seen from an Aussie halfback all year. Our cupboard is so bare right now, Tomas would walk in to our team. Especially with Frisby off his game and Powell throwing bounce passes.

- Reds just need one or two more pieces in the backs to be formidable. Quade would be a good start. It's the Samu Kerevi show at the moment, and if they can get a few decent guys around him then the sky is the limit.

- Liam Gill is a great player, but sometimes gets a bit silly. He tried a few kicks last night, one of which was completely unnecesary and sailed out on the full.

- Brumbies were too skilled and too disciplined for the Reds, especially in the 9-10-12 channel. Controlled the game really well, and the Reds just let it slip in the last half hour with silly errors.

- Tongan Thor is a future star. To have the ball-running impact as a prop in your debut game is special. His scrummaging needs to improve, but if he can get there then he is a future Wallaby.
.

Agree with all of this - particularly the difference between the teams being 9-10-12. It shows what some good decision making and field position can do towards winning and dare I say it something that was sorely missing from the Wallabies (in either performance, tactics or both).

The one observation I'd add is that Kerevi is clearly a better player than Kuridrani. Stronger runner, better distributor, more creative, more offloads and equal on defender. Apart from experience I can't see any areas that Kurindrani has it over Kerevi. I'm disappointed that Cheika didn't try him at 13 vs England as he will now be unlikely to do it vs the All Blacks.

We know what we get from Kuridrani - but the potential upside with Kerevi is a whole new level.

 

[swingpass]

TBH the officiating reminded me of the Reds-Force game in Perth last year with Matt O'Brien reffing. Good lord there were some shocking decisions in that game.

Andrew Lees = Matt O'brien lite, no one is as appallingly incompetent as Matt O'b

 

[swingpass]

thought that Teafu (?) was also quite constructive, he and Kerevi should make a good combination going forward. and he actually looks like he is going to kick a goal EVERY time he takes a shot.

 

[Simon.]

Yeah I thought Taefu looked good at 12, and Paia'aua looked much better at 10 than McIntyre, even though he is really a 12 as well.

Agree about Taefu's kicking too.

The Reds just ran out of gas at 60 minutes, like they have all season. The Stormers game was a prime example, the Blues game that they drew, the Highlanders game that they managed to hold onto by a single point. From memory the two games against the Kiwis blew out in the last 20 also.

I would be really interested to see a comparison of points scored for and against the Reds this season per quarter since RG left. In fact I might try and do that if I can find the match stats.

I originally thought it was just that we had a weak bench, which has been true for much of the season. But we can't claim that this game. We had Douglas, Houston, Tupou and Paia'aua come off the bench and all were solid.

So that is why I'm coming back to fitness. Probably in combination with a usually fairly weak bench.

 

[Ash]

Reds defensive structure throughout the game was still too passive. I don't know if it's a fitness thing or not, but plenty of time they stood behind the advantage line and waited for the Brumbies to run the ball to them. All too easy for the Brumbies to walk down the field so often.

The backline for the Reds is mostly the Kerevi show, nearly all of the threatening play in the back came from Kerevi. The Reds first receiver, particularly McIntyre but Taefu and Paia'ua at times too, standing 15m back just to instantly turn their shoulders outwards and shovel on the ball is woeful play. You have to blame MOC for this as much as McIntyre as it's been a hallmark all season.

 

[Ash]

Glad we have H. Tui though, he carries strongly.

A bit disappointed with Browning last night, he needs to use his size more and drive his legs in contact instead of simply stopping.

 

[Simon.]

Yes, it's been the same ongoing themes all season.

Morale and effort have definitely improved since RG has gone but the same weaknesses are there - poor and passive defence, committing too many men to attacking rucks, resulting in slow ball and the receivers standing too deep.

I crunched the numbers and as I suspected, the Reds are basically scoring almost no points in the final quarter while conceding by far the most points in that period. I'll plot it up into some graphs later.

 

[Lee Grant]

I haven't been following the fringe players of the Reds so I was amused that the TV captions had Tuttle in the starting side and the reserves.

Everybody makes mistakes, I thought, then bloody hell - I realised Jack was starting at fullback. I didn't even know he was back from the NRL.

Jack was an outstanding schools player - better than younger brother James was at scrumhalf later. He was not a fullback but a natural 12 who could play 10, though he is not now of the size that Super Rugby teams use at inside centre.

Jack played well in Canberra - watch this space on the older brother: he will be a handy utility player.
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[liquor box]

Yeah I thought Taefu looked good at 12, and Paia'aua looked much better at 10 than McIntyre, even though he is really a 12 as well.

Agree about Taefu's kicking too.

The Reds just ran out of gas at 60 minutes, like they have all season. The Stormers game was a prime example, the Blues game that they drew, the Highlanders game that they managed to hold onto by a single point. From memory the two games against the Kiwis blew out in the last 20 also.

I would be really interested to see a comparison of points scored for and against the Reds this season per quarter since RG left. In fact I might try and do that if I can find the match stats.

I originally thought it was just that we had a weak bench, which has been true for much of the season. But we can't claim that this game. We had Douglas, Houston, Tupou and Paia'aua come off the bench and all were solid.

So that is why I'm coming back to fitness. Probably in combination with a usually fairly weak bench.

I think in the broadcast they said the reds had not scored a point in the last 20 minutes of the previous 4 games (may have been tries?)

 

[RugbyReg]

Thanks Lee. I was waiting on your historical input. I was more than impressed with his debut. Thought he acquitted himself very capably. Probably the most assured looking fullback we've had since perhaps Hynes or Lance.

 

[tragic]

Missed the game so reading the comments with interest.
Not much written about Leroy.
How'd he look. Promising or underdone?

 

[Viking]

Missed the game so reading the comments with interest.
Not much written about Leroy.
How'd he look. Promising or underdone?

Not that much game-time to make a real assessment. Had a couple of average runs, not the bullocking damaging runner I think people believe him to be, he really likes to wriggle around in contact though, which seems pretty effective but not exactly running over the top of people.

From that short run I will say he'd easily be a solid super xv player, will have to wait and see about the rest.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I actually thought he showed good signs in his carries, but probably a bit underdone atm. I won't be surprised to see him playing at a higher level at year's end.

 

[Scoey]

Not that much game-time to make a real assessment. Had a couple of average runs, not the bullocking damaging runner I think people believe him to be, he really likes to wriggle around in contact though, which seems pretty effective but not exactly running over the top of people.

From that short run I will say he'd easily be a solid super xv player, will have to wait and see about the rest.

"Not that much time to make an assessment, so I'll just make this assessment - he was average."

 

[Scrubber2050]

Curtis was much better eh Scoey

 

[Scoey]

No, my reply was a tongue in cheek reference to Seb above saying he couldn't make an assessment on Leroy but then went ahead and made an assessment anyway.

But on the two, since you asked, Curtis had one of his poorer games for mine. He really needed to come out and make a big statement that the no 8 was his jersey but I don't think he did. In Leroy's limited time, I don't think he really put his hand up either but showed perhaps more promise than Browning did looking at that game in isolation. On that game alone I would start Browning again next week, but wouldn't complain (much) if they started Leroy.

 

[Scrubber2050]

No, my reply was a tongue in cheek reference to Seb above saying he couldn't make an assessment on Leroy but then went ahead and made an assessment anyway.

But on the two, since you asked, Curtis had one of his poorer games for mine. He really needed to come out and make a big statement that the no 8 was his jersey but I don't think he did. In Leroy's limited time, I don't think he really put his hand up either but showed perhaps more promise than Browning did looking at that game in isolation. On that game alone I would start Browning again next week, but wouldn't complain (much) if they started Leroy.

We'll make it a tie for last week.

CB is the incumbent, Leroy has to take the spot with superior play

Simple really

 

[ForceFan]

For those who may be interested in which Forwards did the work at the breakdown in this match.


Remember:
1. Early means 1st or 2nd of player’s team AFTER the ball carrier has been tackled and brought to ground.
2. Impact means active engagement: strong physical contact, changed shape of ruck, clean-out, protecting ball etc. (more than hand on someone’s bum or arriving after the hard work has been done). Yes it’s subjective - but as I collect all data at least it’s consistent.
3. Impact DOES NOT equate to Effectiveness. I’ve concluded that coming up with an effectiveness measure is just too hard in the time that I have available – but open to suggestions.

Ruck Involvements over time

Comments:

1. Impressive effort by Gill who was credited with 5 Turn Overs Won from his 8 Defence Ruck Involvements (DRIs). He was very selective in his involvement and was a bit slower than normal in getting to rucks.
2. Impressive work rate by the Brumbies Back Row. Fardy (3TOW) and Butler (2TOW) matched Gill's effort but from a combined 18 DRIs.
3. Both teams showed a very similar distribution of Total Ruck Involvements between the main player groups.
4. Brumbies Back Row very busy supporting their own ball carriers and putting pressure on the Brumbies ball carriers..
5. Reds Front Row very active on putting pressure on the Reds ball carriers.
6. Brumbies bench were more involved in rucks than the Reds bench.
7. The difference in TRIs reflect the Brumbies 60% possession.
8. Best rucking efforts by Backs:

• • Brumbies: Kuridrani - 19T (16A/3D); To'omua - 17T (16A/1D); Ah Wong - 14A (13A/1D).
  • Reds: Taefu - 18T (14A/4D); Nabuli - 16T (13A/3D)

 

[Simon.]

Thanks FF (Folau Fainga'a). Looks like Gill has finally rediscovered his breakdown mojo from last year. Unfortunately with only two more games to go as a Red... Hopefully it continues, because by God we are going to need it against the Chiefs!

 

[dru]

Love your work FF (Folau Fainga'a).

Buddy I was wondering at the difference in ruck involvements. Eg

Brumbies attack rucks = 234 : Reds defence rucks = 68 [ratio of 3.4:1]
Reds attack rucks = 161 : Brumbies defence rucks = 60 [ of 2.7:1]

Does this simply mean Reds commit less in the defending rucks? Or is there a bigger picture?