RoffsChoice
Jim Lenehan (48)
QF clash between two of the three teams to have lost four finals.
Brumbies (10 wins, 6 losses):
The Brumbies have a 90% win rate in their last ten games at home, their last five on the bounce, and have won 75% of all their finals at home.
The Brumbies have scored the second-most tries this season despite having the second-fewest clean breaks, the least carries, the fewest metres made, the fewest defenders beaten, the fewest 7+ phases, and the fewest offloads thrown. Because they have only kicked three penalties this year, they are only sixth in overall points despite their number of tries scored.
You might think their low possession means they're kicking the ball away a lot, but they have kicked the ball the second-fewest number of times. They have made the third-most tackles, though only the Waratahs have made as many tackles with a higher tackle success rate.
So how do the Brumbies succeed? Because they've made the third-fewest handling errors in the competition, they have conceded the second-fewest turnovers, and have conceded the third-fewest penalty goals despite giving away the fourth-most penalties. Their set piece is one of the (if not the) best in the competition, they make their tackles, they don't drop the ball. That's a tough set of skills to beat.
Sharks (7 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses):
The Sharks have a 60% win rate outside South Africa this season, which is higher than their in-nation win rate of 44%. This team has won as many finals games on the road as they have at home, which sounds impressive until you realise that they have played fourteen finals games away and only four at home, for only six wins.
This Sharks team is hard to understand. They have scored the second-fewest points in the competition and the third-fewest tries, only better than the abysmal Sunwolves and Stormers. They're middle of the pack for run metres despite having the third-most 7+ phases, in no small part due to having the fourth-fewest defenders beaten and linebreaks. They're middle of the pack for kicking metres despite kicking more than 60% of all other teams.
They miss one in every seven tackles they attempt, and yet they have conceded the fewest linebreaks and have the best success rate of keeping the opposition behind the advantage line.
This team has no style, per se. They use a rush defence which can often be successful, but teams getting through or around them can blow them away. They never threaten the opposition set piece, and they concede quite a few set pieces.
Prediction:
This will likely be a game for the purists, with the first defensive system to break being the team to lose. Brumbies by more than a score.
Brumbies (10 wins, 6 losses):
The Brumbies have a 90% win rate in their last ten games at home, their last five on the bounce, and have won 75% of all their finals at home.
The Brumbies have scored the second-most tries this season despite having the second-fewest clean breaks, the least carries, the fewest metres made, the fewest defenders beaten, the fewest 7+ phases, and the fewest offloads thrown. Because they have only kicked three penalties this year, they are only sixth in overall points despite their number of tries scored.
You might think their low possession means they're kicking the ball away a lot, but they have kicked the ball the second-fewest number of times. They have made the third-most tackles, though only the Waratahs have made as many tackles with a higher tackle success rate.
So how do the Brumbies succeed? Because they've made the third-fewest handling errors in the competition, they have conceded the second-fewest turnovers, and have conceded the third-fewest penalty goals despite giving away the fourth-most penalties. Their set piece is one of the (if not the) best in the competition, they make their tackles, they don't drop the ball. That's a tough set of skills to beat.
Sharks (7 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses):
The Sharks have a 60% win rate outside South Africa this season, which is higher than their in-nation win rate of 44%. This team has won as many finals games on the road as they have at home, which sounds impressive until you realise that they have played fourteen finals games away and only four at home, for only six wins.
This Sharks team is hard to understand. They have scored the second-fewest points in the competition and the third-fewest tries, only better than the abysmal Sunwolves and Stormers. They're middle of the pack for run metres despite having the third-most 7+ phases, in no small part due to having the fourth-fewest defenders beaten and linebreaks. They're middle of the pack for kicking metres despite kicking more than 60% of all other teams.
They miss one in every seven tackles they attempt, and yet they have conceded the fewest linebreaks and have the best success rate of keeping the opposition behind the advantage line.
This team has no style, per se. They use a rush defence which can often be successful, but teams getting through or around them can blow them away. They never threaten the opposition set piece, and they concede quite a few set pieces.
Prediction:
This will likely be a game for the purists, with the first defensive system to break being the team to lose. Brumbies by more than a score.
