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Brumbies 2019

RoffsChoice

RoffsChoice

Jim Lenehan (48)
Brumby Runner said:
I am wondering if his overall stats for defense are skewed by his early season form.
Click to expand...

We can check pretty easily, thanks in part to him not starting for the Brumbies for a month in the middle of the season.
  • He started six games from round 1 to round 8, where he completed 45 of his 60 attempted tackles, for a success rate of 75%.
  • He then started a further six games in the regular season from round 12 to round 18, where he completed 34 of his 50 atttempted tackles, for a success rate of 68%.
  • In the playoffs, he made 24 of his 27 attempted tackles, for a success rate of 89%.
So you could argue that he came good for the playoffs? But his early season defending was better than his end-of-season defending (not including playoffs). If you lump the playoffs stats together with the round 12 to round 18 stats, his tackle success rate is only just as good as at the start of the season, and I only separate them out to show how good he was in those playoff games.
Slim 293 said:
I would’ve had Ala'alatoa or Arnold as player of the season..........

Two of the most influential, and consistently best players throughout the year.
Click to expand...

I can understand wanting a better reward for AAA or Arnold (I ummed and ahhed about AAA as an honourable mention), but Kuridrani is just that good. We seriously have a player on our hands who would improve any team he played for. It is not possible to have an improvement on Kuridrani in the current worldwide player pool, though I have dreams of Petaia and Ikitau one day pushing him for a gold jersey.

Arnold is the best lock in Australia, maybe the best forward at the moment, but he's not on Kuridrani's level. At least, in my view.
 
Slim 293

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
RoffsChoice said:
I can understand wanting a better reward for AAA or Arnold (I ummed and ahhed about AAA as an honourable mention), but Kuridrani is just that good. We seriously have a player on our hands who would improve any team he played for. It is not possible to have an improvement on Kuridrani in the current worldwide player pool, though I have dreams of Petaia and Ikitau one day pushing him for a gold jersey.

Arnold is the best lock in Australia, maybe the best forward at the moment, but he's not on Kuridrani's level. At least, in my view.
Click to expand...


I'm not sure I would've rated Kuridrani that highly this year..........

He was generally pretty good to excellent, and while he finished the year as the best performing outside centre in the country, he wasn't the best in the competition, whereas AAA and Arnold have been the few Aussies (including Kerevi) consistently featured in the Super Rugby teams of the season, and deservedly so.

AAA finished the year as the dominant TH in the southern hemisphere, unbeaten at scrum time, massive workrate and ran strongly with the ball.

Arnold too also fairly dominant at the set pieces, a one man maul killer, physical around the ground and showing great skills in the meantime.
 
RoffsChoice

RoffsChoice

Jim Lenehan (48)
I'm not disputing how good Arnold and AAA have been, we agree there.

On Kuridrani and outside centres: the following scores are based on the extent to which they excel compared to their peers, minus the categories in which they are sub-par. The scoring tiers are as follows:
  • Less than 0: You are a sub-par player, Super Rugby probably isn't for you;
  • (0-3]: You are a decent player, but probably still a level above where you should be;
  • (3-8]: You are a good player, and Super Rugby is probably your level;
  • (8-13]: You are a great player, good enough for test rugby; and,
  • Over 13: You are a great player, playing at a test level in a provincial team.
The outside centres in Super Rugby who have played at least 800 minutes this season scored as follows:
  • Tevita Kuridrani: 17.4
  • Lukhanyo Am: 13.0
  • Rob Thompson: 12.7
  • Jack Goodhue: 11.0
  • Matias Orlando: 6.8
  • Tumua Manu: 5.6
  • Lionel Mapoe: 5.5
  • Tom English: 3.5
  • Chris Feauai-Sautia: 3.2
  • TJ Faiane: 0.5
  • Adam Ashley-Cooper: 0.3
  • Matt Proctor: -1.1
  • Jason Emery: -1.7
So, before this season, the over 13 scoring tier didn't exist, because nobody had ever gotten there. Exceptional players had crossed into the high 12s before, but nobody had really gotten close. In any other year, Lukhanyo Am (who only gets to 13 by rounding up to one decimal place) and Rob Thompson would be the best 13s in Super Rugby.
But then Tevita Kuridrani had to come along and put together a season of such quality that you'd think his numbers came from the All Blacks playing Easts in the JID cup. In sporting terms, his performance this season is best compared to Lionel Messi scoring 73 goals in a season, you will be lucky if you ever see a player perform at this level again.

But maybe you don't like that scoring method, despite its success in predicting players who will move from Super to Test, and those who won't remain in Super. Okay, fair enough, you don't have the relationship with it as a model that I do. I've invented a different one for you to help you see how well Kuridrani measures against the other outside centres.

Statistical deviation in Super Rugby is less extreme because of small population, but you can generally fit deviation into these categories:
  • (0-0.67]: Good;
  • (0.67-1.5]: Great; and,
  • >1.5: Excellent.
If we score it like the Olympics, where you always rank by golds before silvers, etc., Kuridrani stands out yet again. Indeed, he is so exceptional in so many categories that you could drop him a ranking in half of his best stats and he would still be, far and away, the best 13 in the competition:
  • Tevita Kuridrani: Excellent: 8, Great: 3, Good: 5.
  • Rob Thompson: Excellent: 4, Great: 4, Good: 7.
  • Lukhanyo Am: Excellent: 3, Great: 7, Good: 7.
  • Matias Orlando: Excellent: 2, Great: 2, Good: 5.
  • Jason Emery: Excellent: 2, Great: 4, Good: 0.
  • Jack Goodhue: Excellent: 1, Great: 10, Good: 7.
  • Lionel Mapoe: Excellent: 1, Great: 6, Good: 5.
  • Tom English: Excellent: 1, Great: 6, Good: 5.
  • Tumua Manu: Excellent: 1, Great: 5, Good: 7.
  • Adam Ashley-Cooper: Excellent: 1, Great: 3, Good: 2.
  • Chris Feauai-Sautia: Excellent: 0, Great: 8, Good: 5.
  • TJ Faiane: Excellent: 0, Great: 5, Good: 4.
  • Matt Proctor: Excellent: 0, Great: 4, Good: 4.
Like I say in the season review itself:
RoffsChoice said:
Stats aren't everything. The eye test shows just how amazing Kuridrani is. We all have a memory of him shepherding opposition towards the touchline to shut down a three man overlap, or making a big tackle after coming out of the line at the perfect time, or hitting a defensive line after drawing three defenders and making space out wide, and this season we can all remember a time he hit a perfect angle and broke a few tackles to make twenty metres.
Click to expand...

But damn, damn, those stats. He's a god among men at 13. I fully stand by my statement that he is the best 13 in the world, that he would improve any backline in the world, and that he was the best Brumby this season.
 
TSR

TSR

Andrew Slack (58)
Good player, no doubt and I’m genuinely excited to see him & Kerevi together. Whereas last time they played together they were too similar Kerevi’s game is now more rounded and TK is in very good form.

I’d just like to see him get better at setting up his outside man and not dying with the ball with a free man in support.
 
Up the Guts

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
Not the right thread I know but I thought Goodhue played the worst I had ever seen him towards the end of the season. In the quarter against the Highlanders he missed a pretty soft tackle on Te Walden to let in a try. We’d have crucified Kerevi or TK for missing the same sort of tackle. TK was definitely up there with the best of them.
 
eastman

eastman

John Solomon (38)
RoffsChoice said:
I'm not disputing how good Arnold and AAA have been, we agree there.

On Kuridrani and outside centres: the following scores are based on the extent to which they excel compared to their peers, minus the categories in which they are sub-par. The scoring tiers are as follows:
  • Less than 0: You are a sub-par player, Super Rugby probably isn't for you;
  • (0-3]: You are a decent player, but probably still a level above where you should be;
  • (3-8]: You are a good player, and Super Rugby is probably your level;
  • (8-13]: You are a great player, good enough for test rugby; and,
  • Over 13: You are a great player, playing at a test level in a provincial team.
The outside centres in Super Rugby who have played at least 800 minutes this season scored as follows:

  • Tevita Kuridrani: 17.4
  • Lukhanyo Am: 13.0
  • Rob Thompson: 12.7
  • Jack Goodhue: 11.0
  • Matias Orlando: 6.8
  • Tumua Manu: 5.6
  • Lionel Mapoe: 5.5
  • Tom English: 3.5
  • Chris Feauai-Sautia: 3.2
  • TJ Faiane: 0.5
  • Adam Ashley-Cooper: 0.3
  • Matt Proctor: -1.1
  • Jason Emery: -1.7
So, before this season, the over 13 scoring tier didn't exist, because nobody had ever gotten there. Exceptional players had crossed into the high 12s before, but nobody had really gotten close. In any other year, Lukhanyo Am (who only gets to 13 by rounding up to one decimal place) and Rob Thompson would be the best 13s in Super Rugby.

But then Tevita Kuridrani had to come along and put together a season of such quality that you'd think his numbers came from the All Blacks playing Easts in the JID cup. In sporting terms, his performance this season is best compared to Lionel Messi scoring 73 goals in a season, you will be lucky if you ever see a player perform at this level again.

But maybe you don't like that scoring method, despite its success in predicting players who will move from Super to Test, and those who won't remain in Super. Okay, fair enough, you don't have the relationship with it as a model that I do. I've invented a different one for you to help you see how well Kuridrani measures against the other outside centres.

Statistical deviation in Super Rugby is less extreme because of small population, but you can generally fit deviation into these categories:
  • (0-0.67]: Good;
  • (0.67-1.5]: Great; and,
  • >1.5: Excellent.
If we score it like the Olympics, where you always rank by golds before silvers, etc., Kuridrani stands out yet again. Indeed, he is so exceptional in so many categories that you could drop him a ranking in half of his best stats and he would still be, far and away, the best 13 in the competition:

  • Tevita Kuridrani: Excellent: 8, Great: 3, Good: 5.
  • Rob Thompson: Excellent: 4, Great: 4, Good: 7.
  • Lukhanyo Am: Excellent: 3, Great: 7, Good: 7.
  • Matias Orlando: Excellent: 2, Great: 2, Good: 5.
  • Jason Emery: Excellent: 2, Great: 4, Good: 0.
  • Jack Goodhue: Excellent: 1, Great: 10, Good: 7.
  • Lionel Mapoe: Excellent: 1, Great: 6, Good: 5.
  • Tom English: Excellent: 1, Great: 6, Good: 5.
  • Tumua Manu: Excellent: 1, Great: 5, Good: 7.
  • Adam Ashley-Cooper: Excellent: 1, Great: 3, Good: 2.
  • Chris Feauai-Sautia: Excellent: 0, Great: 8, Good: 5.
  • TJ Faiane: Excellent: 0, Great: 5, Good: 4.
  • Matt Proctor: Excellent: 0, Great: 4, Good: 4.
Like I say in the season review itself:



But damn, damn, those stats. He's a god among men at 13. I fully stand by my statement that he is the best 13 in the world, that he would improve any backline in the world, and that he was the best Brumby this season.
Click to expand...

This is largely rubbish - ask most rugby fans around the world who the best outside centre is and TK won't be the response. He is a strong reliable player but still largely limited in what he does.
 
fatprop

fatprop

George Gregan (70)
Staff member
RoffsChoice said:
We can check pretty easily, thanks in part to him not starting for the Brumbies for a month in the middle of the season.
  • He started six games from round 1 to round 8, where he completed 45 of his 60 attempted tackles, for a success rate of 75%.
  • He then started a further six games in the regular season from round 12 to round 18, where he completed 34 of his 50 atttempted tackles, for a success rate of 68%.
  • In the playoffs, he made 24 of his 27 attempted tackles, for a success rate of 89%.
So you could argue that he came good for the playoffs? But his early season defending was better than his end-of-season defending (not including playoffs). If you lump the playoffs stats together with the round 12 to round 18 stats, his tackle success rate is only just as good as at the start of the season, and I only separate them out to show how good he was in those playoff games.



I can understand wanting a better reward for AAA or Arnold (I ummed and ahhed about AAA as an honourable mention), but Kuridrani is just that good. We seriously have a player on our hands who would improve any team he played for. It is not possible to have an improvement on Kuridrani in the current worldwide player pool, though I have dreams of Petaia and Ikitau one day pushing him for a gold jersey.

Arnold is the best lock in Australia, maybe the best forward at the moment, but he's not on Kuridrani's level. At least, in my view.
Click to expand...


Any ranking of players that doesn't devalue the value of form in the first say 7 odd games will never be accurate, we all know Super Rugby gets hard at the back end of the season.

The Test players all come back from light preseasons, players are being rotated and sides are still working stuff out, shit the Tahs beat the saders in round 6
 
RugbyReg

RugbyReg

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
RoffsChoice said:
I'm not disputing how good Arnold and AAA have been, we agree there.

On Kuridrani and outside centres: the following scores are based on the extent to which they excel compared to their peers, minus the categories in which they are sub-par. The scoring tiers are as follows:
  • Less than 0: You are a sub-par player, Super Rugby probably isn't for you;
  • (0-3]: You are a decent player, but probably still a level above where you should be;
  • (3-8]: You are a good player, and Super Rugby is probably your level;
  • (8-13]: You are a great player, good enough for test rugby; and,
  • Over 13: You are a great player, playing at a test level in a provincial team.
The outside centres in Super Rugby who have played at least 800 minutes this season scored as follows:

  • Tevita Kuridrani: 17.4
  • Lukhanyo Am: 13.0
  • Rob Thompson: 12.7
  • Jack Goodhue: 11.0
  • Matias Orlando: 6.8
  • Tumua Manu: 5.6
  • Lionel Mapoe: 5.5
  • Tom English: 3.5
  • Chris Feauai-Sautia: 3.2
  • TJ Faiane: 0.5
  • Adam Ashley-Cooper: 0.3
  • Matt Proctor: -1.1
  • Jason Emery: -1.7
So, before this season, the over 13 scoring tier didn't exist, because nobody had ever gotten there. Exceptional players had crossed into the high 12s before, but nobody had really gotten close. In any other year, Lukhanyo Am (who only gets to 13 by rounding up to one decimal place) and Rob Thompson would be the best 13s in Super Rugby.

But then Tevita Kuridrani had to come along and put together a season of such quality that you'd think his numbers came from the All Blacks playing Easts in the JID cup. In sporting terms, his performance this season is best compared to Lionel Messi scoring 73 goals in a season, you will be lucky if you ever see a player perform at this level again.

But maybe you don't like that scoring method, despite its success in predicting players who will move from Super to Test, and those who won't remain in Super. Okay, fair enough, you don't have the relationship with it as a model that I do. I've invented a different one for you to help you see how well Kuridrani measures against the other outside centres.

Statistical deviation in Super Rugby is less extreme because of small population, but you can generally fit deviation into these categories:
  • (0-0.67]: Good;
  • (0.67-1.5]: Great; and,
  • >1.5: Excellent.
If we score it like the Olympics, where you always rank by golds before silvers, etc., Kuridrani stands out yet again. Indeed, he is so exceptional in so many categories that you could drop him a ranking in half of his best stats and he would still be, far and away, the best 13 in the competition:

  • Tevita Kuridrani: Excellent: 8, Great: 3, Good: 5.
  • Rob Thompson: Excellent: 4, Great: 4, Good: 7.
  • Lukhanyo Am: Excellent: 3, Great: 7, Good: 7.
  • Matias Orlando: Excellent: 2, Great: 2, Good: 5.
  • Jason Emery: Excellent: 2, Great: 4, Good: 0.
  • Jack Goodhue: Excellent: 1, Great: 10, Good: 7.
  • Lionel Mapoe: Excellent: 1, Great: 6, Good: 5.
  • Tom English: Excellent: 1, Great: 6, Good: 5.
  • Tumua Manu: Excellent: 1, Great: 5, Good: 7.
  • Adam Ashley-Cooper: Excellent: 1, Great: 3, Good: 2.
  • Chris Feauai-Sautia: Excellent: 0, Great: 8, Good: 5.
  • TJ Faiane: Excellent: 0, Great: 5, Good: 4.
  • Matt Proctor: Excellent: 0, Great: 4, Good: 4.
Like I say in the season review itself:



But damn, damn, those stats. He's a god among men at 13. I fully stand by my statement that he is the best 13 in the world, that he would improve any backline in the world, and that he was the best Brumby this season.
Click to expand...

sorry, who came up with this system? And how is it measured?
 
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