Brumbies 2019
- Thread starter Brumby Jack
- Start date
Brumby Runner
Jason Little (69)
Thanks Tomikin. Surprisingly (to me), that's a bit of a hiding for the Runners.
Slim 293
Stirling Mortlock (74)
Looking at the team sheet it was a far different team to the one that had spanked other sides earlier in the season............
A very club rugby forward pack with a decent backline.
Tomikin
David Codey (61)
Wasnt that bad of a team, the wolf pack also beat the Force so it's not a surprise
Tomikin
David Codey (61)
So 4 Games to go and I think we have 2 toughies starting with the Bull's this weekend, hopefully knock them off, should beat the Sunwolves and then will have a bit of a tough gig against Tahs in Sydney, but should beat the Reds in Canberra.
Potentially we could win all 4 and I will be going in confident in our recent form to get the job done.
Potentially we could win all 4 and I will be going in confident in our recent form to get the job done.
RoffsChoice
Jim Lenehan (48)
I think that, if we beat the Bulls, we're home and hosed. In fact, I'll just review the whole conference.
Remaining fixtures in Australian Conference finals contenders:
I know it is still mathematically possible for the Sunwolves to make the playoffs, but I will disregard them for this.
Brumbies (6 wins, 6 losses):Average 4.75 wins per opponent. Expected points from final games: 14. Expected points total: 43.
vBulls:
- 7 wins, 5 losses
- 306 points for, 274 points against, +32 PD
- 28 tries for, 37 tries against, -9 TD
Only the Sunwolves and Stormers, last on the overall table and last in South Africa respectively, have scored fewer tries than the Bulls. The Bulls also have the 4th lowest metres carried and the worst breakdown success rate. Despite this, they have the 4th best PD in the competition, and the third best win record, in no small part due to their lineout success rate (93.2%) and their competition-topping advantage line rate. Their win against the Rebels was their first outside of South Africa for three years, and the Bulls will know that now is the time to make an impact, especially given Pollard's impending departure. A win is a good result.
@Sunwolves
- 2 wins, 10 losses
- 240 points for, 407 points against, -167 PD
- 26 tries for, 59 tries against, -33 TD
The Sunwolves, despite their positive start to the season, have collapsed. They have the second-fewest tries in the competition, the most yellow cards, and the worst ruck success rate. Only the Highlanders have a worse tackle success rate, only the Reds and Jaguares are worse in the scrum, only the Hurricanes are worse in the lineout. But whereas those teams have strengths to cover their weaknesses, the Sunwolves do not. Less than five points is a failure.
@Waratahs
- 5 wins, 7 losses
- 296 points for, 293 points against, +3 PD
- 37 tries for, 38 tries against, -1 TD
The Waratahs are probably not a good team this season. Their wins against the Reds were more a factor of poor goal kicking from their opponents than any measure of their own skill, likewise their win against the Sunwolves coming from one of the worst drop goal attempts in Super Rugby history. Their win against the Crusaders is doubtlessly covered by the cloud of the Christchurch shooting, while their win against the Rebels is almost unexplainable, with the Rebels putting on one of the worst second half performances from a non-Brumbies team this season. The Tahs have the fewest tries of any Australian team despite the most clean breaks and carries, and an amazing ruck success rate (97%, the best in the competition) to go along with the third-worst scrum sucess and the worst lineout success rate in Australia. That said, they still have a lot of backline quality, and that has the potential to get them across the line. A win is expected and five points is not unreasonable.
vReds
- 5 wins, 7 losses
- 293 points for, 317 points against, -24 PD
- 40 tries for, 41 tries against, -1 TD
The Reds are probably better than their position, as they would probably be top of the Australian conference and equal-third overall if they had a goalkicker. They've scored as many tries as the Jaguares, who have the second-best try differential in the competition, but have made some signigicant mistakes defensively. Their scoring record is even more impressive when you consider that they have the fifth-least carries and the least offloads, which they have translated into the sixth-most metres made, the fifth-most clean breaks, and the second-most defenders beaten; a significant part of this is their incredibly low number of handling errors, as they make the least in the competition. They may have the third-best lineout success rate (90.8%), but they have the second-worst scrum success rate (86%), so the set piece is not necessarily their friend. This team is performing below their ability, and their great defensive coach is sure to work out the kinks as time goes on. A win is a good result.
Rebels(6 wins, 6 losses): Average 5 wins, 1.25 draws per opponent. Expected points from final games: 10. Expected points total: 38.
@Sunwolves
See Brumbies for team review.
Less than five points is a failure.
vWaratahs
See Brumbies for team review.
A win is expected and five points is not unreasonable.
@Crusaders
- 9 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss
- 385 points for, 206 points against, +179 PD
- 58 tries for, 24 tries against, +34 PD
The Crusaders have scored the most tries in Super Rugby, and conceded the fewest, despite having the third most yellow cards this season, the 5th worst scrum, and the 6th worst lineout. They have made up for these problems with the best tackle completion rate (86.8%) and the second most metres made (5,831m). They are double-defending champions and will likely go into next season as triple-defending champions, winning as many titles in three years as any other team has won since the competition begun. They are very, very good. A losing bonus point would be a fantastic showing.
vChiefs
- 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses
- 333 points for, 417 points against, -84 PD
- 45 tries for, 53 tries against, -8 TD
The Cheifs are a big disappointment (suddenly a lot happier that the Brumbies failed to sign Colin Cooper). Despite having the fourth-most tries in the competition, the second-most clean breaks, the fifth-most defenders beaten, the most offloads, and the second-fewest yellow cards conceded, they are second last in the competition. This is in no small part due to their poor lineout and tackle success rates. However, this team can still punish: they join the Crusaders and the Jaguares (1st and =3rd overall respectively) as the only teams to beat the Bulls in Pretoria this year, though with a bigger winning margin than the other two teams combined; likewise, they join the Lions as the only team to beat the Jaguares in Argentina. This team can beat anyone, and will want to prove a point with what will almost certainly be their final game of the season. A losing bonus point would be a good showing.
Waratahs(5 wins, 7 losses): Average 6 wins, 0.5 draws per opponent. Expected points from final games: 7. Expected points total: 33.
vJaguares
- 7 wins, 5 losses
- 318 points for, 297 points against, +32 PD
- 40 tries for, 31 tries against, +9 TD
The Jaguares know that they should be 11 and 1, and they can only blame themselves for the fact that they are not. The Stormers game aside, there is not a game that they have played where you can say that they should have lost, and they will take great pride in that. Despite scoring the eighth-most tries, they have the second-highest TD thanks to their great defence; they have conceded the third-fewest tries this season. They may not make many chances, but they are particularly good at finishing them, as they have the third-fewest clean breaks, carries, and offloads, and the second-fewest defenders beaten and metres made. Regardless, they have the fifth-best tackle success rate, accompanied by the sixth-fewest points conceded. A losing bonus-point is expected.
@Rebels
- 6 wins, 6 losses
- 318 points for, 313 points against, +5 PD
- 45 tries for, 39 tries against, +6 TD
The Rebels are an interesting case this season. They probably have the most outright talent of all the Australian Super Rugby squads, and the best head coach, though their teambuilding and squad management strategies are restricting their ability to perform. Teambuilding goes beyond simply signing good players, and helping players to find their role within the squad is hampered by chopping and changing on a weekly basis. The only two stats in which they are remarkable are their second-most yellow cards conceded, and second-best lineout success rate; in all else, they are incredibly average. Two of their six wins come from games against a Brumbies side which should have been able to control the game for a win, and their only win against a non-Australian conference team was the controversial win over the Highlanders, which relied heavily on taking men out beyond the ball (a strategy which has subsequently been neutralised by quality opposition). Their second half collapse against the Waratahs in Sydney is perhaps the worst second half performance in the Super Rugby season. However, they have so much quality that you have to imagine them beating their conference rivals to end the season with a wildcard finals position. A win is achievable, but a losing bonus point is expected.
vBrumbies
- 6 wins, 6 losses
- 291 points for, 286 points against +5 PD
- 44 tries for, 39 tries against, +5 TD
The Brumbies, much like last year, had a terrible start to the season and will be regretting the fact that they could be eleven points better off this season than they are. However, while it took until the fifth-last game of 2018 for the Brumbies to kick into gear, they've managed to put it together halfway through this season. The remarkable thing about this Brumbies team is their high number of tries despite having the fewest carries, metres made, clean breaks, defenders beaten, offloads made, and number of 7+ phases. While their defence has played a big part in their wins, they have a very mediocre 85.2% tackle success rate. While the lazier journalists out there would suggest that this is a "reversion" to "boring Brumbies", this team has scored the fewest penalty goals in the competition, have kicked the ball away the third-fewest number of times, is one of the leading tryscorers in the competition, and have the third-most individual tryscorers in Super Rugby (18). However, 10 of those 18 are forwards, making up 24 of the 44 tries, though, again, a significant number of these tries have been that journalist wet-dream of "exciting running rugby". They succeed because they are fit enough to make a lot of tackles (the second-most in the competition, they hit back suddenly, and make the second-least handling errors. If last season is any indicator, the Brumbies will continue to improve as the season goes on, and will be a tough team to beat. A win is achievable, but a losing bonus point is expected.
@Highlanders
- 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses
- 346 points for, 322 points against, +24 PD
- 46 tries for, 44 tries against, +2 TD
This Highlanders team, like the Brumbies, know that they only have themselves to blame for not being higher in the NZ conference. Their five-game losing streak from round 3 really drove the nail into the coffin of their top-of-the-conference hopes, particularly their two losses to the Hurricanes, both as a result of poor game management. That said, they have scored the third-most tries this season, the least yellow cards conceded, and very good numbers across the board on carries, linebreaks, offloads, and defenders beaten. However, they aren't making their tackles, and have the worst tackle completion rate in the competition. They have conceded the third-most linebreaks (93), only one fewer than the second-most. This is a team with serious defensive issues, which you'd think would be great for good attacking teams to run at, but they've hurt opponents on the counter so many times that reckless abandon will not be enough. This team is beaten by clever kicks in behind and through tackle busts, and they are neutralised by having defenders to cover the counter. A win is achievable, but a losing bonus point is expected.
Reds (5 wins, 7 losses): Average 5 wins, 0.5 draws per opponent. Expected points from final games: 7. Expected points total: 30.
@Chiefs
- 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses
- 333 points for, 417 points against, -84 PD
- 45 tries for, 53 tries against, -8 TD
See Rebels for team review.
A losing bonus point would be a good showing.
vJaguares
- 7 wins, 5 losses
- 318 points for, 297 points against, +32 PD
- 40 tries for, 31 tries against, +9 TD
See Waratahs for team review.
A losing bonus point would be a good showing.
vBlues
- 5 wins, 7 losses
- 262 points for, 270 points against, -8 PD
- 34 tries for, 35 tries against, -1 TD
This team will run at you. They have the most carries in the competition, and the defenders beaten and metres made to show for it. They share the equal-best advantage line rate with the Bulls, they have gone 7+ phases 61 times this season (12 more than the next best team), have kicked the least of all teams, and their control of possession has let them concede the third-least points this season despite making the least tackles. However, despite this, they have a negative PD, as they struggle to convert their possession into points. If the Reds make their tackles, and hold onto the ball, they will win this game.
A win is to be expected.
@Brumbies
- 6 wins, 6 losses
- 291 points for, 286 points against +5 PD
- 44 tries for, 39 tries against, +5 TD
See Waratahs for team review.
A losing bonus point would be a good showing.
Review
Going into the final quarter of the season, I predict we will go to the finals with the Australian conference in the following shape:
- Brumbies - 9 wins, 7 losses, 43 points.
- Rebels - 8 wins, 8 losses, 38 points.
- Waratahs - 6 wins, 10 losses, 33 points.
- Reds - 6 wins, 10 losses, 30 points.
- Sunwolves - 2 wins, 14 losses, 12 points.
Strewthcobber
Simon Poidevin (60)
The Tahs/Brumbies/Rebels games are obviously the key games, and whoever does best out of those 2 games probably makes the finals.
RoffsChoice
Jim Lenehan (48)
I think that, if we win the Bulls game, it's probably settled. The Rebels have already taken all they can from us and are still behind. The Tahs and Reds will probably lose at least two games, so are unlikely to make it up.
MarkJ
Bob Loudon (25)
So does anyone know anything about Maile Ngauamo? Seems he's the 3rd hooker now that Bongo's out.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6132334/bongos-knee-repaired-to-aid-recovery/?cs=14280
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6132334/bongos-knee-repaired-to-aid-recovery/?cs=14280
RoffsChoice
Jim Lenehan (48)
I am resigned to Pocock only playing two more home games for the Brumbies: Reds, and whoever we play in a QF (god willing).
Rugbynutter39
Michael Lynagh (62)
Can't help but continue to be impressed how the Brumbies are a magnet for any decent aussie rugby player wanting to play pro rugby in Australia. For sure as not it can't be the joy of living in Canberra with its crappy winter weather.
Brumbies just deserve a better competition to play in as certainly a professional quality organisation.
Brumbies just deserve a better competition to play in as certainly a professional quality organisation.
Brumby Jack
Steve Williams (59)
This is not pleasant reading..
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/st...injury-concern-puts-season-in-doubt/?cs=14280
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/st...injury-concern-puts-season-in-doubt/?cs=14280
RoffsChoice
Jim Lenehan (48)
But it gives us one of the best home field advantages in the competition! Must feel good as a player knowing that other teams are really uncomfortable coming to the purpose-built wind tunnel that is Canberra Stadium in the middle of winter. Also makes us one of the few teams that can probably tolerate a Highlanders game in Invercargill.
Rugbynutter39
Michael Lynagh (62)
Longer term canberra government does need to invest in a closed stadium.
RoffsChoice
Jim Lenehan (48)
Booooo. Compare the House of Pain Highlanders to the Forysth Barr Highlanders.
The 98-02 Highlanders were good, but beating any team that stepped foot in their stadium because of how awful the conditions were was a wonderful advantage. Only lost three games at home out of twenty-eight in five years, with a PD of +421, or an average winning margin of fifteen.
When they moved to Forysth Barr, they actually had to become legitimate title contenders. In part, because they no longer had much home field advantage: compared to losing only three of those twenty-eight games from 98-02, they lost eleven of their first twenty-eight in Forsyth Barr, with a PD of only +110, or an average winning margin of four points. That's the same home-field margin the betting community gives to evenly matched teams.
Slightly tongue-in-cheek, of course. But a quadrupled home field advantage is pretty sweet.
The 98-02 Highlanders were good, but beating any team that stepped foot in their stadium because of how awful the conditions were was a wonderful advantage. Only lost three games at home out of twenty-eight in five years, with a PD of +421, or an average winning margin of fifteen.
When they moved to Forysth Barr, they actually had to become legitimate title contenders. In part, because they no longer had much home field advantage: compared to losing only three of those twenty-eight games from 98-02, they lost eleven of their first twenty-eight in Forsyth Barr, with a PD of only +110, or an average winning margin of four points. That's the same home-field margin the betting community gives to evenly matched teams.
Slightly tongue-in-cheek, of course. But a quadrupled home field advantage is pretty sweet.