Bledisloe #2 - AUS v NZL, Eden Park, Auckland, August 15th

[emuarse]

USA, Fiji and Wales will be easy games, even though the last two are in the RWC, and are ones to experiment with "combinations" if TGC actually doesn't know what are his best combinations by now.

Against the undisputed #1 ranked team in the World is not a time to experiment, particularly when we handed then their arses in the last meeting.

Many keyboard selectors haven't settled on their combinations for RWC, but I reckon TGC has. The various changes we are seeing are part of the "marketing" campaign to sell those combinations, and the strategy to manage the game time of his #1 squad as well as a strategy to keep the opposition coaches and analysts guessing.

HJ, can't totally agree with your synopsis.
Whilst Cheika would most dearly love to put the Bledisloe cup into the trophy cabinet, he would still be wanting to fully determine his best on field side.
For instance the halves situation is far from firmed up. If anything, the opposite.
He might also want to investigate further the full potential of his winger stocks, especially Speight, and possibly Horne.
His objective, I believe, is to have a team that is on the same score sheet, and that includes some players who didn't participate last weekend. And a game against Wales or Fiji should not be classed as easy. That's like saying Ireland were going to be easy before we played them in the last RWC, and we all know what happened there. that game probably cost us the Webb Ellis trophy as we had to play in the tougher finals against Springbok (which exhausted us) & Mordar.

 

[Viking]

Even though it is tantalizing to make changes to the lineup, Cheiks need to stick with the same team (barring any injury enforced changes). Provide an opportunity for the guys who didn't play so well (who have been highlighted ad nauseum) to rectify their mistakes in the pressure-cooker of an AB Eden Park test.
.

I disagree. I actually have a feeling it was always Cheika's intention to play Cooper in NZ whether Foley played poorly or not. Foley having a shocker just re-enforces that idea.

But To'omua and Gits having outstanding games has really thrown a spanner into the mix, and I'd bet Cheika will start with those 2.

 

[emuarse]

I disagree. I actually have a feeling it was always Cheika's intention to play Cooper in NZ whether Foley played poorly or not. Foley having a shocker just re-enforces that idea.

But To'omua and Gits having outstanding games has really thrown a spanner into the mix, and I'd bet Cheika will start with those 2.

Or Cheika might start with Cooper & To'omua at 12, and later bring in To'omua at 10 replacing Cooper & Beale/Gitau at 12.
Makes selection day almost as exciting as game day

 

[Viking]

Or Cheika might start with Cooper & To'omua at 12, and later bring in To'omua at 10 replacing Cooper & Beale/Gitau at 12.
Makes selection day almost as exciting as game day

Its a tough call isn't it. I'd think he couldn't drop Gits after that performance (his goal kicking helps too), and likewise To'omua would be in line to start by now.

If Cheika does go with 10. Cooper 12 To'omua it is a clear indication he is still in the experimenting stage - which I'm not sure is a good idea at this stage, I have a feeling he has to start picking on form now.

Either way I'd be happy to see Cooper To'omua or To'omua Gits. I think Foley has played himself out of contention.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Not sure if I like the idea so much about introducing higgers or palu. Higgers will be found wanting in the eastern or western stands and palu will be lagging far behind the action in the northern or southern stands.

I think Dave Dennis has had a standout year for the Tahs, and it did look like Cliff Palu was suffering some sort of leg injury for the Marlins on the weekend, but he nevertheless outpaced Dennis (and others) over almost 50m to score his try. I also thought it was totally unnecessary for Dennis to flop on Cliff after the try had been scored.

Don't think it will be the end of the world if Cheika decides to give Palu a bit of game time. But for mine, Pocock is now pretty much a lock-in for the No 8 spot. Between Hooper and Pocock, it was like having an extra man on the ground last weekend, (except for the second Milner-Skudder try).

 

[Brumby Runner]

My team for Saturday:-

1.Sio
2.Moore
3.Kepu
4.Horwill
5.Mumm
6.Fardy
7.Hooper
8.Pocock
9.Phippps
10.To'omua
11.AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
12.Giteau
13.Kuridrani
14.Speight
15.Folau

16.TPN
17.Slipper
18.Holmes
19.Skelton
20.McCalman
21.White
22.Cooper
23.Mitchell

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this is the starting side. Just can't see Quade being on the bench. Probably Beale.

 

[Pfitzy]

Don't be surprised if, after Read's performance and the ongoing concerns about his post-confidence discussion, Hansen rolls out

6 McCaw
7 Cane
8 Kaino

 

[jollyswagman]

Or Cheika might start with Cooper & To'omua at 12, and later bring in To'omua at 10 replacing Cooper & Beale/Gitau at 12.
Makes selection day almost as exciting as game day

Yep, I like this option a lot. I make no apologies for being a big fan of QC (Quade Cooper) but that being said I am aware he does have his faults and wouldn't support his inclusion on blind faith. I don't believe he is the right option off the bench even if he is playing well. He needs time on the park to do what he does best which is control a game and organize the attack and patterns of play. Trotting him out with 15-20 minutes to go if we are 10 points down is only going to bring out the worst in him as he is going to push the pass or chance his hand. Given more time he will be able to pick & choose when to push it and I think he is more likely the play the game we would all like to see from him. I like the idea Emuarse described above as it would be the ultimate test for QC (Quade Cooper) to see if he can put a complete performance together under pressure but if not we can quickly switch it up and get our next best option of To'omua / Gits running.

 

[Langthorne]

I would have no issue with Chieka playing the same 23 this week, but if he is about rewarding form and bench impact, it would seem obvious to start with White and finish with Phipps at 9.

If he was always planning on playing Cooper over Foley, again, no issue here (it is not like Foley has been tearing it up. I'd say he has been mostly.... ok).

No other changes are needed to the starters or the bench (apart from everyone doing everything better - the Kiwis surely will).

Speight (excellent though he could be) and other likely squad members short of a match or coming back from injury may just have to get back to speed through training and against the USA. This is a Bledisloe decider, end of discussion.

 

[jollyswagman]

I think Gits is Cheika's #12 for the RWC and rightly so IMO. With the game this weekend there may be some validity to the argument to start To'omua at 12 for his aggressive / dominant defense and to keep Gits in cotton wool. We all know the buggers are going to be coming with all guns blazing so we may want to rest him up and keep his old bones out of the line of fire. Maybe this means resting him completely or putting him on the bench to cover #12 if To'omua needs to shift in to take over from QC (Quade Cooper) - who knows.

 

[Braveheart81]

I would have no issue with Chieka playing the same 23 this week, but if he is about rewarding form and bench impact, it would seem obvious to start with White and finish with Phipps at 9.

I'd be somewhat surprised if he does this.

He's looking to get a big impact out of his bench and at this point they're delivering. I don't think Cheika will be overly keen to keep switching his bench and starting players based on them having good impact.

If Phipps and Foley again struggle then I think we're likely to see something change but I'll be surprised if Phipps misses out after one bad game.

 

[Ignoto]

Whilst Cheika would most dearly love to put the Bledisloe cup into the trophy cabinet, he would still be wanting to fully determine his best on field side.

I'd dare say the former would be the main objective rather than the later right now. If we lost on the weekend then I'd agree that's what Chieka would now be focussing on. But, because we got the W, we now have a greater chance to grab back the bledisloe. There's no way you can pass up that opportunity in the chance of maybe doing a little better on the WC!

 

[Braveheart81]

Are you sure that Horne's suspension and injuries haven't been ata similarly bad time for him? How many tests has Rob played this year and how many Joe? Seems to have been pretty similar to me, but I could be wrong.

Edit : I have perhaps again misread your post. Certainly, Rob has played at least one test more than Henry Speight, though I do think his time out recently has been just as awkward as Henry's.

I definitely think Horne's injury could have come at a really bad time. He's now relying on Cheika having faith that he's still an integral part of his squad because he won't play again before the squad is announced. He's relying on his versatility being valued because it is a tight race with the other wingers, particularly with Mitchell getting more game time.

I tend to think only three out of Genia, Leali'ifano, Horne, Mitchell, Speight and Tomane will make the final squad.

The wingers will be hoping that Giteau is picked as the third halfback so Genia misses out and there is space for one more of them.

I definitely find it hard to see both Speight and Tomane both making the squad as they are the most like for like wingers in the group. Mitchell has his left foot kicking game and Horne has his versatility of being a good option in either centre position.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Isn't it fantastic that we're in a position where a couple of very, very good players will likely miss the squad.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I am starting to think that Cheika pulled a three card trick on the ABs last weekend. The combination of Foley and Giteau at 10/12 looked for the world to be defensively the weak link in the Wallabies' side. The ABs threw just about everything including the kitchen sink at the 10/12 channel (especially Retallick who attacked close to the ruck all night long) expecting the Red Sea to open up, and in the process seemed to ignore their most usual approach of skirting the backline defense on the outside. There were two problems they (the ABs) hadn't counted on. Hooper and Pocock together effectively shut down the 10/12 channel (while Matt Giteau wasn't all that dusty either), and by focussing on the mid field, they failed to take advantage of quite a few opportunities that opened up out wide. Most unlike the ABs.

I believe the ABs will have learnt from these mistakes, and expect them to again challenge the defensive line out wide at Eden Park. I am just as sure that Cheika will have sussed this, and will go with a different game plan, and some team changes, to counteract. The most obvious in my opinion is the play Matt To'omua at 10. That one change frees up the Pooper (or half of it) to play a bit wider in defense when the need arises. To'omua bringing the defensive line up quickly will either cut off the ABs' backline moves or force them to get the ball wider to the wings quicker than they might like. I can see in this scenario that Phipps could well get to start again, but I cannot see any way Foley will survive.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I think it will be important to not be too cute with tactics or selections this week. Firstly, we have a chance to win the Bled, which we haven't been able to for a long time. Secondly, this is the last big test match before the RWC and you'd want the combinations to be reasonably settled before we depart.

I'd bring Cooper in at 10 and have either Gits or To'omua at 12. If QC (Quade Cooper) has a great game then we probably win. If he has a shocker in the first 40-50 minutes, then shift To'omua to 10 and try to salvage something. The pack should remain as it was last week. The only other contentious spot is one of the wings. Do we play Mitchell or not is the question. I dunno, pick someone and go with it.

 

[jollyswagman]

Have been lurking around on the Silver Fern forum and enjoying our Kiwi brethren tear into things. Here's one post I thoroughly enjoyed reading...

"I literally have no idea re the side this weekend because not only did we lose, we fucked up our "locked in" places for the cup.

NMS was obviously getting a shot at disloding Dagg. And he did a pretty fucking good job of it, maybe not quite as good as folk are implying - the one handed no look pass to McCaw 1st half looked so cool, but it killed that move when a proper delivery was easier. Ditto the make a break, roll over on your back & present the ball to Poccock bit, super rugby you might get a pop pass away, test rugby you get turned over ... But he def showed enough & was the one bright spot. The problem is Ben Smith was poor at fullback, and we badly missed Dagg coming into the line thru the centres & acting as a 2nd distributor (something people totally ignore when calling him just a kicker). That obviously wasn't helped by having a 2nd five with zero passing game, but still, would you rule Dagg out now?

So an area that should have been very clear cut - NMS for Dagg is now fucked.

Same in the centres, where SBW just had to not be shit to cement the (already cemented) Nonu-Smith-Fekitoa-SBW unit. Only he was shit. Really really shit. Not only was his core game bad, but it meant we had no passing or kicking game in the centres. Before the game there was a discussion re how good a passer Nonu is. Well, this underlined it. So now are you locked with that unit? Do you look at Crotty? Do you decide to risk Piatau & Carter covering a 3 man centre unit & go with Dagg AND NMS? What exactly is the point of SBW - to smash the minnows & look good outside Cruden?

And then the loosies.

No question that was our 1st choice loosie unit - and ditto the bench, with a lock & Cane.

And they got fucking owned.

Not just outplayed, but bitchslapped all round the park. Worse, Read is our locked on 8. To the extent that we are barley covering 8 - Messam is odds on to go (as a specialist 6, who can half arse cover 8) as opposed to Vito (a specialist 8 who can half arse cover 6). But what now? The worst bit of Read was not his missed tackles, it was the sight of our scrum being destroyed as Read stood there arms on the locks wide apart, not locking them in, not providing any drive at all. Franks gets a lot of shit re our scrum, but Read was awful at scrum time, it was a 7 man scrum (at best) on occasion. The 8 is not an optional bit, its the bit that channels half the fucking drive.

On Carter, he was shit, but he was playing with no 2nd five outside him and no second pivot coming in from the back. Stick Nonu & Dagg in & he looks a whole lot better. But with NMS playing like that where do you fit Dagg into the squad? In place of SBW? For me the centres covered by by Piatau & Cater is a lot stronger than the wings covered by SBW. At least Piatau & Carter are worth their places in their first choice spots.

We went into that game with 3 spots open, now we have about 6 open...

And say what you like about Elllis I reckon he'll actually look at the ball as he goes to pick it up. ..."

 

[Hugh Jarse]

I reckon the NZ team have to be careful with making too many changes for this game as a knee jerk reaction.

They have usually backed themselves to play their way back into form, and now is a good time for steady as she goes.

Can lightning strike twice?

 

[Viking]

You'd imagine the Smiths, Read, Rettallick coming good. Nonu will make a huge difference in SBW's place.

Not sure if Carter is still up to it.
Although many of the rest are dangerous players I think they can be outplayed by their counter-parts depending on how we apply ourselves.

 

[Troy]

With rain predicted for Fri & Sat I can't see us going with Speight when we'd need a good kicking game.

Also just saw Giteau is on the side not training today and Izzy is training alone with his calf strapped?