Betting tips: AKA I'm crazy and think this team is undervalued

[meatsack]

The Highlanders are at $2.90 vs the Chiefs.

Yes the Chiefs picked up Cruden and SBW, but the Highlanders started well last year and this year they picked up Hore, Gear and Haskell. I think the Chiefs have a better backline, but I think the 'landers have a way better pack and can keep this game in the forwards. So I'm not guaranteeing a win, but saying they're undervalued this round. Am I crazy?

 

[Sully]

Highlanders may be a chance. But the pick ups don't seem enough to turn the tide.


Sent using Tapatalk on a very old phone

 

[Gagger]

Chiefs have a great propensity to disappoint

 

[Dam0]

I noticed that one too. They might be a good bet at 2.90, maybe. The Chiefs have a history of starting pretty well though.

 

[Scarfman]

I love this thread. I'm often in the same situation. My method of betting is to actually try to GUESS the odds before I go online. Sometimes, my version of reality is very different to the bookies.

I'm with you meatsask, I'd probably tip the Landers FTW.

 

[barbarian]

Landers have a Tah-esque injury list though, missing Piutau, Lynn, Poki, Hoeata and Treeby.

The Chiefs can be sketchy though, and the Highlanders started very well last season. I just can't see them having enough class in the backs, but you never know.

.

 

[Gagger]

Went Landers. Liked their style last year. Chiefs flaky as fuck

DONT LIKE IT UP EM

who does?

 

[tranquility]

Could be good for a multi, cheers for the heads up

 

[Elfster]

I made my tips before I read this. I fear a bad start for me in the tipping this system.

My tipping style is a mixture of heart over head, idealism vs reality, hope versus the darkness, and outrageous stupidity just doesn't have the legs...

 

[Riptide]

Can't see the Highlanders doing much with their 10 on out. They have some real hard working men upfront though.

If the Chiefs sort out their scrum, they'll have an arsenal with Dave Rennie better equipped than Foster to provide some focus and ensure execution.

 

[meatsack]

I made my tips before I read this. I fear a bad start for me in the tipping this system.

My tipping style is a mixture of heart over head, idealism vs reality, hope versus the darkness, and outrageous stupidity just doesn't have the legs...

In a tipping comp I'd still probably pick the Chiefs, I just think the bookies have the landers too long. Like if they were playing 10 times I think the Highlanders would win 4 of the times where the bookies are kind of saying they'd only win 2-3 times.

 

[Happy]

Okay, Meatsack. You are a genius.

 

[meatsack]

Ended up getting them at $3.50!

 

[meatsack]

Not feeling good about betting on this, (I'm only superstitious about one thing, and that is betting against my team), but the Force at $5.50 seems weird. Guess I could bet on it as a kind of 'heartbreak insurance'.

Reds 2 games last year against the Force were close. Reds had a late try to win it last year at home and I do believe in bogey teams. Again, Reds deserve to be favorites, I just think $5.50 is too long and worth $20 on (I expected the force to be $3-$4). I expect to lose, just putting this here as a kind of record for my weird betting strategy.

 

[No4918]

Yes last year was close, but before you put your money down maybe have a look at the score from the year in 2010.
Paying $5.50 is high so you may even get a good price on Force +12.5;-) your welcome.

 

[liquor box]

I am taking not of all of the odss for every game in Super Rugby and the NRL this year. I am really curious how the odds actually stack up against the results and at what point a favourite is close to a certainty.
I want to know if a team is paying $1.30 as a favourite, how often do they have to win over the long term to make you $0.01 or more (not lose)? Does this actually occur in reality? If 8/10 $1.30 teams win then you come out 4% up but if only 7/10 win you lose 9%
It will be interesting how it turns out. You never know in 50 years using this method I may be in front by $100

 

[meatsack]

I am taking not of all of the odss for every game in Super Rugby and the NRL this year. I am really curious how the odds actually stack up against the results and at what point a favourite is close to a certainty.
I want to know if a team is paying $1.30 as a favourite, how often do they have to win over the long term to make you $0.01 or more (not lose)? Does this actually occur in reality? If 8/10 $1.30 teams win then you come out 4% up but if only 7/10 win you lose 9%
It will be interesting how it turns out. You never know in 50 years using this method I may be in front by $100

I know guys who love the multibets, and they'll chain 5-6 (or more, cross sports) favorites together to get odds of $4+ and then bet large amounts on it coming off. I figure when too many of these multi bets get put on with one result in common, the odds blow out, not because the team is actually that bad, just that too many punters are betting the other way. So the betting agency itself has to make the one off bet more attractive to cover their bases.

I'm just having fun by betting $20 a week on the kind of bets that get 'over hyped' by these crazy multi betters. I know the house always wins overall, just wondering if given a season of betting against what I consider 'over hyped' will pay off.

Yes last year was close, but before you put your money down maybe have a look at the score from the year in 2010.
Paying $5.50 is high so you may even get a good price on Force +12.5;-) your welcome.

I haven't figured out the proper quote controls, but No4918 the actual line is 11.5 and paying the usual 1.90. While I think taking the line is probably better if you're putting a multi down, betting $20 outright, it's not really worth it for me.

 

[liquor box]

I know guys who love the multibets, and they'll chain 5-6 (or more, cross sports) favorites together to get odds of $4+ and then bet large amounts on it coming off. I figure when too many of these multi bets get put on with one result in common, the odds blow out, not because the team is actually that bad, just that too many punters are betting the other way. So the betting agency itself has to make the one off bet more attractive to cover their bases.

I'm just having fun by betting $20 a week on the kind of bets that get 'over hyped' by these crazy multi betters. I know the house always wins overall, just wondering if given a season of betting against what I consider 'over hyped' will pay off.



I haven't figured out the proper quote controls, but No4918 the actual line is 11.5 and paying the usual 1.90. While I think taking the line is probably better if you're putting a multi down, betting $20 outright, it's not really worth it for me.

I always put on a multi of every game in the NRL and also one on every game in the Super Rugby, but only a dollar on each, in the last 2 years I have won over $100 3 times doing this.

 

[mudskipper]

Super Rugby Betting Tips...

• Never bet on a team without its key playmaker
• Never bet on a team without their Captain playing
• Never bet on a game with a Rookie Ref
• Avoid betting against starting points greater than a converted try 7points
• Always check the weather before placing the bet
• Always check the latest team list before placing a bet
• Always bet on game day for current team information
• Avoid betting on a loosing form team even at home
• Avoid betting on a team on its 3rd straight away game
• Select the dominate home team between 1-12 margin if teams are evenly matched
• In wet weather choose the home team when possible

 

[daz]

Super Rugby Betting Tips...

• Never bet on a team without its key playmaker
• Never bet on a team without their Captain playing
• Never bet on a game with a Rookie Ref
• Avoid betting against starting points greater than a converted try 7points
• Always check the weather before placing the bet
• Always check the latest team list before placing a bet
• Always bet on game day for current team information
• Avoid betting on a loosing form team even at home
• Select the dominate team between 1-12 margin if teams are evenly matched
• In wet weather choose the home team when possible

• Bet on the team that wins.