Australian rugby/RA

[WorkingClassRugger]

Whilst we are seeing a mini resurgence at the moment, the reality is there are still many of the best athletes in Australia running around in the NRL and AFL.

Their competitions expanding also means the player pools available to rugby will be shrinking. It has been brought up in the threads before how the NRL have no qualms offering 14yr olds significant sums of cash to sign commitment deals. As the NRL and AFL grow, more of those deals will be getting offered particularly with these new teams like Perth and PNG where it's going to take some decent financial incentive to get players to move.

Whilst our competitors have the cash, they can essentially freeze out a fair chunk of talent from committing to rugby.

I think that may be part of the thinking in the elimination of the Giteau Law. Letting playets go north to earn the bigger money would pitentially free up resources to better compete for talent in the junior ranks.

 

[stoff]

One risk the AFL and NRL take with their continued expansion is dilution of talent, you wonder at what point they spread it too thin. Their domination of the week to week, domestic sporting market is pretty absolute at this point though.

But the more they expand, the bigger rugby's point of difference could stand out - as a big event sport with the best against the best on an international stage. That 'revenue in Australian sport' graph illustrating Tennis Australia's success from the Australian Open shows how lucrative it can be as a big event sport. When I've heard Dan Herbert and Phil Waugh speak it's clear to me their aim is to build some more big events into the calendar so that rugby is not as reliant on the Lions tour every 12 years and a home world cup every 20-30.

It’s harder to see the dilution when there is no alternate reference point. The bigger challenge to me is securing uncertainty of outcome across more teams.

 

[Rebel man]

I think that may be part of the thinking in the elimination of the Giteau Law. Letting playets go north to earn the bigger money would pitentially free up resources to better compete for talent in the junior ranks.

If R360 gets up, the amount of money on offer may sway kids to stay in rugby to try and get a deal. Definitely you have seen this effect with kids choosing to stay in cricket over returning to Aussie Rules

Now there is also the potential that 20 of the NRL’s biggest names are going to leave. Plus the prospect of another 3 teams starting up in a short space of time that the standard in the NRL falls away.

While yes it is harder to see the standard drop off when there is no comparison how many here actively watch European rugby?

 

[PhilClinton]

I know it sounds counter-intuitive but I think the NRL may actually be keen to have the competition diluted and level the playing field a bit to bring fans of the shitter teams back into the fold come finals time.

The comp has pretty much been dominated by a handful of clubs over the last decade, notably the Panthers, Storm and Roosters.

Even myself as someone who watches a fair bit of NRL over the weekend will likely not bother with another Panthers and Storm grand final.

 

[Rebel man]

I know it sounds counter-intuitive but I think the NRL may actually be keen to have the competition diluted and level the playing field a bit to bring fans of the shitter teams back into the fold come finals time.

The comp has pretty much been dominated by a handful of clubs over the last decade, notably the Panthers, Storm and Roosters.

Even myself as someone who watches a fair bit of NRL over the weekend will likely not bother with another Panthers and Storm grand final.

But those clubs still are better run businesses even with less talent available

 

[Dctarget]

It’s harder to see the dilution when there is no alternate reference point. The bigger challenge to me is securing uncertainty of outcome across more teams.

Agreed, it's the brilliance of the AFL. Each year there is an all time team and the best ever to pull the jersey on etc etc. In reality the last 5 years could've been the worst cohort of players ever and we'll never know. Add in the draft and in theory most teams should have their time at the top, it's a pretty tidy system.

Not sure why NRL doesn't have a draft.

 

[Wilson]

Not sure why NRL doesn't have a draft.

Terry Hill

 

[PhilClinton]

Agreed, it's the brilliance of the AFL. Each year there is an all time team and the best ever to pull the jersey on etc etc. In reality the last 5 years could've been the worst cohort of players ever and we'll never know. Add in the draft and in theory most teams should have their time at the top, it's a pretty tidy system.

Not sure why NRL doesn't have a draft.

My understanding is the rugby league junior player catchments are much more defined, and clubs are paying large sums of money to ensure their junior players come through that pipeline into their NRL teams.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

I know it sounds counter-intuitive but I think the NRL may actually be keen to have the competition diluted and level the playing field a bit to bring fans of the shitter teams back into the fold come finals time.

The comp has pretty much been dominated by a handful of clubs over the last decade, notably the Panthers, Storm and Roosters.

Even myself as someone who watches a fair bit of NRL over the weekend will likely not bother with another Panthers and Storm grand final.

One of the best results is to have the last 3-4 rounds be extended finals when you have teams 5-12 still alive.

The talents there. It will become less likely to have sides with 4+ Origin players because those guys will have more teams able to pay them big money.

Rugby may face a problem with the NRL wanting to re establish the U20s competition. They will be looking for players everywhere. Super Rugby Aus is a very good comp for Rugby to keep guys in house and playing.

 

[Rebel man]

Terry Hill

The NRL is more even than the AFL the draft is shit

 

[Omar Comin']

Whilst we are seeing a mini resurgence at the moment, the reality is there are still many of the best athletes in Australia running around in the NRL and AFL.

Their competitions expanding also means the player pools available to rugby will be shrinking. It has been brought up in the threads before how the NRL have no qualms offering 14yr olds significant sums of cash to sign commitment deals. As the NRL and AFL grow, more of those deals will be getting offered particularly with these new teams like Perth and PNG where it's going to take some decent financial incentive to get players to move.

Whilst our competitors have the cash, they can essentially freeze out a fair chunk of talent from committing to rugby.

This is true, but if rugby is laser focused on being a concentrated, big event sport with the best against the best then the NRL could become a feeder into top tier rugby. It would only ever be for a small number, like a few Joseph Sua'ali'i's every year, but it could happen because the rugby economy will always be driven by a much smaller number of players, while league and AFL keep cutting their giant pie into more pieces.

This would become more obvious if R360 works out, but could also be true at a smaller scale if test rugby continues to grow commercially around the world, which would lead to the core Wallabies players being significantly higher paid than any NRL or AFL player.

 

[mst]

The transient population is a huge part and you have to be willing to eat the cost for a couple generations before you are the established side for people coming through. GC has had these issues. So many people have re located there and already have sides they support.

Even early days of the Broncos had heaps of fans of other sides and winning early was the game changer for them. I went to a Broncos v Dragons game in the 2000s and was astonished how many people were fans of the Dragons and got told yeah my grandpa followed them when they were winning all the comps in the NSWRL back in the 60s and they passed that fandom down along with a Q Cup side. Broncs are obviously a dominant brand now though.

Side tangent for ACT but have you seen the crowds for the Ice Hockey team? Looks unreal and what a fun night out.

Ice hockey crowd is only about 2000, (illustrates the point of diverse market) but still really impressive.

It will be interesting to see what that crowd numbers settles at in the next season or so.

 

[mst]

It is a challenging market but one the AFL will look to push into. An odd number of teams don’t work.

They can’t put a third WA team in without the approval of the WA football commission. Who oppose a third Perth side

Darwin is the only other city interested and that is a way smaller market with social issues, high rates of crime and poverty and then there is the weather

Outside of that there is Cairns, Norwood and pre Covid Auckland. The SANFL won’t allow Norwood and the Adelaide market is still quite small. Cairns is a small market with no ground and the same tropical climate and Auckland it was briefly mentioned when they wanted to turn Western Springs into the home of NZ cricket

Ok, I have to ask. Do you have any involvement with the AFL at any level or you just doing your social media surfing and banging on and on like the Rebels out west thing in the past, hoping that it might become reality or validate an argument for you?


The thing you seem to ignore is that the AFL may not choose to expend if provides a better financial return then expansion. The ideas from the AFL are ideas. Look at the Tasmanian AFL bid. It not totally the AFL behind it

For transparency, I am inside the AFL tent.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Ice hockey crowd is only about 2000, (illustrates the point of diverse market) but still really impressive.

It will be interesting to see what that crowd numbers settles at in the next season or so.

2900 to the recent games. I reckon Rugby will take that with a grin to Super Rugby Aus. I don’t expect it to become something crazy but it’s cool to see

 

[Dirkgee96]

The NRL is more even than the AFL the draft is shit

How? Penrith has won the last 4 in a row and in the last 10 years 8 different afl teams have won their comp compared to 6 different nrl teams

 

[Happy]

2900 to the recent games. I reckon Rugby will take that with a grin to Super Rugby Aus. I don’t expect it to become something crazy but it’s cool to see

They sold out the approx 3000 seating capacity for 12 games in a row. I went to one of them. It was a great night of sport and entertainment for the $40 ticket, and there are no bad seats.

It was the first time I had been to the AIS since the Canberra Cannons days, and a few people I spoke to at the game were the same. They will have no issues attracting a crowd next season as well.