Australian rugby/RA

[Adam84]

ACT Govt won’t be anymore forthcoming then they already have with supporting an AFL matches in Canberra, that’s the issue AFL would face and why Canberra is so unlikely. They’ll demand enormous govt support for training facilities, stadium upgrades and ongoing financial support and you’re not getting that from the ACT Govt

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

The AFLW can’t get a crowd in Melbourne

No they are currently tendering for the upgrade the eastern grandstand.

Tasmania has had so many stipulations as it is a small market with no growth and a 19th team on its own adds no value. Yet a 20th side sees an extra game per round plus allows a 10 team final system

They aren’t going to Darwin as that would require as much government funding as PNG and the West Australian football commission has ruled out a third WA side. Laugh all you want but it is a serious threat.

The ACT is a smaller market than Tasmania. Even with projected growth over the next 20 years. It's more centralised but that's about.

 

[Rebel man]

The ACT is a smaller market than Tasmania. Even with projected growth over the next 20 years. It's more centralised but that's about.

480k for the ACT to 570k for Tas, yet population projections has the ACT has them at 700k by 2050 to 650k for Tasmania. That is also not including the population of Queanbeyan.

There will be a 20th team as they need the increase in the TV revenue to support the game.

NT is not viable and Perth won’t happen when the WA football commission rejects it.

2035 is the likely start for team 20

 

[Slim 293]

The AFLW can’t get a crowd in Melbourne

Super Rugby says hi...

 

[Rebel man]

Super Rugby says hi...

AFLW loses 50m a year and is projected to lose 200m plus if the women get a full length season like they want. It is a fully subsidised competition and the lack of financial viability of the AFLW is not a relevant comparison to the AFL

 

[Giulia]

The ACT is a smaller market than Tasmania. Even with projected growth over the next 20 years. It's more centralised but that's about.

Quite a bit more centralised. When the novelty wears off in Tasmania people won't be driving across the state to watch the club when they're in the bottom half of the ladder.

 

[Slim 293]

AFLW loses 50m a year and is projected to lose 200m plus if the women get a full length season like they want. It is a fully subsidised competition and the lack of financial viability of the AFLW is not a relevant comparison to the AFL

Yes, it's a long term investment from the AFL blah blah blah etc...

But I was just responding to the comment of the AFLW struggling to pull a crowd in Melbourne, which on one hand is true when compared to AFL crowds in Melbourne (although they're also down recently), but kind of funny when compared to Super Rugby crowds in Melbourne.

 

[Rob42]

ACT Govt won’t be anymore forthcoming then they already have with supporting an AFL matches in Canberra, that’s the issue AFL would face and why Canberra is so unlikely. They’ll demand enormous govt support for training facilities, stadium upgrades and ongoing financial support and you’re not getting that from the ACT Govt

Surely the big challenge for any new stadium in the ACT is that it will rely on pulling crowds from Queanbeyan and regional NSW, but the NSW govt sure isn't going to fund a Canberra stadium.

 

[mst]

The AFLW can’t get a crowd in Melbourne

Most loctions have the same issue. It's a AFLW issue. Likey the timing being late in the season. It's a challenge a lot of womens sports is battling with.

No they are currently tendering for the upgrade the eastern grandstand.

Ah, lets try keep this simple: https://region.com.au/see-whats-in-store-for-manuka-oval-redevelopment/789032/

The ACT Government is seeking a contractor to undertake technical due diligence and site analysis for the proposed redevelopment that would also improve the experience of patrons with better amenities and make it easier, safer and more accessible to get to and move throughout the ground.

The ACT Budget allocated funding for the due diligence work as part of a $1.7 million package of progress work on key entertainment, events, sports and tourism events infrastructure projects.

Nearly $1.3 million was set aside for amenity upgrades at Manuka Oval, where fans have long complained about long queues and sub-standard facilities.

It is not known how much the redevelopment project will cost.

Tasmania has had so many stipulations as it is a small market with no growth and a 19th team on its own adds no value. Yet a 20th side sees an extra game per round plus allows a 10 team final system

ACT will have more stipulations as its an even smaller market with GWS and the Swans on the doorstep. I don’t see the all the 6000 Canberra based GWS members jumping ship quickly. GWS at the junior level is already well entrenched so the AFL wont want to move them out in a rush.

Laugh all you want but it is a serious threat

Oh, I am laughing as it's is really not a threat. Certainally not for the forseeable future. ACT is broke so there is a major funidng issue. Stupidly, Barr knocked back a private investment offer a few years back, so good luck to him finding more private funding support.

Manuka is not even the home of AFL in Canberra. AFL Canberra has its own ground (AFL Park) to distance itself from Manuka and Barr's political silliness.

Like is I said, this is sounding more and more like another Rebels out west story line.

 

[mst]

480k for the ACT to 570k for Tas, yet population projections has the ACT has them at 700k by 2050 to 650k for Tasmania. That is also not including the population of Queanbeyan.

There will be a 20th team as they need the increase in the TV revenue to support the game.

NT is not viable and Perth won’t happen when the WA football commission rejects it.

2035 is the likely start for team 20

Tasmania is 100% AFL., so it is a good market for AFL to invest in.

It's well known the ACT has a high transient population, so people come to Canberra with set alliances to teams and sports. The ACT is also smaller and more diverse when it comes to sports. So being super, super generous, its a 70/30 split with Rugby (all forms) being the main sports. Looking at the ACT right now, they are trying to keep a Women’s soccer team alive, the fantasy of a A League team continues which suggest that funding is a real issue. The ACT has one of the highest sports participation rates and a diverse range of sports which makes it a competative market for local sponsorships which are very limited. So it’s not just simply an Rugby v AFL market arguement.

So, at best, the 480K ACT peoples you are using to base your AFL argument on is in reality is more like less than 200K on a really good day.

Probably one of the best indicators where sports, sports sponsorship and the ACT are heading is the Vikings Group. Beyond their rugby they also have many other sporting teams. They appear to be powerhouse with their own grounds etc. But they are desperately trying to move operations out of the ACT as they are struggling financially, and the ACT government is slowly cutting off their revenue streams (yes, the pokies!). That means less funding for community sports which the ACT Government will need to pick up. The ACT doesn’t have the revenue like the Tasmanian market and its already a crowded market. Ask the Raiders and Brumbies.

The only reason the GWS are in Canberra is the approximately $700k+ they get paid, per game, from the ACT Government as part of the 10year $28.5mil deal.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

The transient population is a huge part and you have to be willing to eat the cost for a couple generations before you are the established side for people coming through. GC has had these issues. So many people have re located there and already have sides they support.

Even early days of the Broncos had heaps of fans of other sides and winning early was the game changer for them. I went to a Broncos v Dragons game in the 2000s and was astonished how many people were fans of the Dragons and got told yeah my grandpa followed them when they were winning all the comps in the NSWRL back in the 60s and they passed that fandom down along with a Q Cup side. Broncs are obviously a dominant brand now though.

Side tangent for ACT but have you seen the crowds for the Ice Hockey team? Looks unreal and what a fun night out.

 

[Rebel man]

The transient population is a huge part and you have to be willing to eat the cost for a couple generations before you are the established side for people coming through. GC has had these issues. So many people have re located there and already have sides they support.

Even early days of the Broncos had heaps of fans of other sides and winning early was the game changer for them. I went to a Broncos v Dragons game in the 2000s and was astonished how many people were fans of the Dragons and got told yeah my grandpa followed them when they were winning all the comps in the NSWRL back in the 60s and they passed that fandom down along with a Q Cup side. Broncs are obviously a dominant brand now though.

Side tangent for ACT but have you seen the crowds for the Ice Hockey team? Looks unreal and what a fun night out.

It is a challenging market but one the AFL will look to push into. An odd number of teams don’t work.

They can’t put a third WA team in without the approval of the WA football commission. Who oppose a third Perth side

Darwin is the only other city interested and that is a way smaller market with social issues, high rates of crime and poverty and then there is the weather

Outside of that there is Cairns, Norwood and pre Covid Auckland. The SANFL won’t allow Norwood and the Adelaide market is still quite small. Cairns is a small market with no ground and the same tropical climate and Auckland it was briefly mentioned when they wanted to turn Western Springs into the home of NZ cricket

 

[Rebel man]

Tasmania is 100% AFL., so it is a good market for AFL to invest in.

It's well known the ACT has a high transient population, so people come to Canberra with set alliances to teams and sports. The ACT is also smaller and more diverse when it comes to sports. So being super, super generous, its a 70/30 split with Rugby (all forms) being the main sports. Looking at the ACT right now, they are trying to keep a Women’s soccer team alive, the fantasy of a A League team continues which suggest that funding is a real issue. The ACT has one of the highest sports participation rates and a diverse range of sports which makes it a competative market for local sponsorships which are very limited. So it’s not just simply an Rugby v AFL market arguement.

So, at best, the 480K ACT peoples you are using to base your AFL argument on is in reality is more like less than 200K on a really good day.

Probably one of the best indicators where sports, sports sponsorship and the ACT are heading is the Vikings Group. Beyond their rugby they also have many other sporting teams. They appear to be powerhouse with their own grounds etc. But they are desperately trying to move operations out of the ACT as they are struggling financially, and the ACT government is slowly cutting off their revenue streams (yes, the pokies!). That means less funding for community sports which the ACT Government will need to pick up. The ACT doesn’t have the revenue like the Tasmanian market and its already a crowded market. Ask the Raiders and Brumbies.

The only reason the GWS are in Canberra is the approximately $700k+ they get paid, per game, from the ACT Government as part of the 10year $28.5mil deal.

Tasmania is not a good market to invest in. As most of the population already consume the game and they have the slowest growth rate in the nation. There is a reason why there are so many conditions on the Tasmanian license as the AFL doesn’t want them they want the AFL.

The AFL as shown with Brisbane, Sydney, Gold Coast, GWS and the AFLW are prepared to lose money on a team in the short to medium term to grow the game and make it more profitable.

They will not stop at 19 teams and I accept the ACT is not without its challenges but it is where the AFL will look to launch team 20 in about 2035

 

[Major Tom]

It is a challenging market but one the AFL will look to push into. An odd number of teams don’t work.

They can’t put a third WA team in without the approval of the WA football commission. Who oppose a third Perth side

Darwin is the only other city interested and that is a way smaller market with social issues, high rates of crime and poverty and then there is the weather

Outside of that there is Cairns, Norwood and pre Covid Auckland. The SANFL won’t allow Norwood and the Adelaide market is still quite small. Cairns is a small market with no ground and the same tropical climate and Auckland it was briefly mentioned when they wanted to turn Western Springs into the home of NZ cricket

Sunshine Coast / north Brisbane should have the population.

 

[Rebel man]

Sunshine Coast / north Brisbane should have the population.

There has been no interest in Queensland for a third side down south. You put them at the Gabba and they will be no hope with the Lions already there

Even so the original point was team 20 will be in rugby territory and is a threat that the game will have to face

 

[Omar Comin']

One risk the AFL and NRL take with their continued expansion is dilution of talent, you wonder at what point they spread it too thin. Their domination of the week to week, domestic sporting market is pretty absolute at this point though.

But the more they expand, the bigger rugby's point of difference could stand out - as a big event sport with the best against the best on an international stage. That 'revenue in Australian sport' graph illustrating Tennis Australia's success from the Australian Open shows how lucrative it can be as a big event sport. When I've heard Dan Herbert and Phil Waugh speak it's clear to me their aim is to build some more big events into the calendar so that rugby is not as reliant on the Lions tour every 12 years and a home world cup every 20-30.

 

[PhilClinton]

One risk the AFL and NRL take with their continued expansion is dilution of talent, you wonder at what point they spread it too thin. Their domination of the week to week, domestic sporting market is pretty absolute at this point though.

But the more they expand, the bigger rugby's point of difference could stand out - as a big event sport with the best against the best on an international stage. That 'revenue in Australian sport' graph illustrating Tennis Australia's success from the Australian Open shows how lucrative it can be as a big event sport. When I've heard Dan Herbert and Phil Waugh speak it's clear to me their aim is to build some more big events into the calendar so that rugby is not as reliant on the Lions tour every 12 years and a home world cup every 20-30.

Whilst we are seeing a mini resurgence at the moment, the reality is there are still many of the best athletes in Australia running around in the NRL and AFL.

Their competitions expanding also means the player pools available to rugby will be shrinking. It has been brought up in the threads before how the NRL have no qualms offering 14yr olds significant sums of cash to sign commitment deals. As the NRL and AFL grow, more of those deals will be getting offered particularly with these new teams like Perth and PNG where it's going to take some decent financial incentive to get players to move.

Whilst our competitors have the cash, they can essentially freeze out a fair chunk of talent from committing to rugby.

 

[Major Tom]

There has been no interest in Queensland for a third side down south. You put them at the Gabba and they will be no hope with the Lions already there

Even so the original point was team 20 will be in rugby territory and is a threat that the game will have to face

Sunny coast won’t be that far from Vic park when that’s done. Probably an hour away.

 

[Red Runner]

Sunny coast won’t be that far from Vic park when that’s done. Probably an hour away.

but no Gabba

 

[PhilClinton]

Sunny coast won’t be that far from Vic park when that’s done. Probably an hour away.

A Sunny Coast fanbase will not commute into Brisbane regularly for games