Australian Rugby / RA

[qwerty51]

Deans was good no doubt about it but I believe he benefitted (from what I consider at least)
the best group of players from any of the recent coaches. Prime Quade, Pocock, Smith, Horwill, Vickerman, Ioane, JOC (James O'Connor), Mitchell, Palu, TPN, Kepu, Robinson, Elsom etc. Reds won a title, Tahs were pretty good (final and semi? during this tenure).

Rennie has probably had the worst. He's had to deal with a pretty significant turnover, changing of the guard etc. lots of youth whilst not really being the generational talent that Deans had as young players.

 

[Derpus]

Deans was good no doubt about it but I believe he benefitted (from what I consider at least)
the best group of players from any of the recent coaches. Prime Quade, Pocock, Smith, Horwill, Vickerman, Ioane, JOC (James O'Connor) (James O'Connor), Mitchell, Palu, TPN (Tatafu Polota-Nau), Kepu, Robinson, Elsom etc. Reds won a title, Tahs were pretty good (final and semi? during this tenure).

Rennie has probably had the worst. He's had to deal with a pretty significant turnover, changing of the guard etc. lots of youth whilst not really being a generational talent as Deans' young players.

But isnt that the point of assessing them based on their expected wins? Rennie wont have had many expected wins in his tenure.

 

[Dave Beat]

Tour finished - none of the teams we played based on their performance would concern me for next year's RWC.
We stayed in each of those games for the full 80 and one more scoring chance in each of those games could have resulted in a Grand Slam.
I rate Rennie as a coach, really looking forward to next year's RWC.
Will be keen to see how they manage injuries and player workload.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Will be keen to see how they manage injuries and player workload.

I take this as the big issue next year.

When I think about it though I'm hopeful that the Super teams will cooperate with national interest. I think 4/5 Franchises coaches are safe for next year with only Thorn potentially on the nose. I hope with that they may not push a player when they have a niggle for the sake of it.

 

[Wilson]

I take this as the big issue next year.

When I think about it though I'm hopeful that the Super teams will cooperate with national interest. I think 4/5 Franchises coaches are safe for next year with only Thorn potentially on the nose. I hope with that they may not push a player when they have a niggle for the sake of it.

Not sure you can declare Kevin Foote as safe, particularly in world cup year when coaching movements start to accelerate.

 

[Pfitzy]

Great data @RugbyReg - the rankings are often decried as pointless (ha ha) but are a decent general guide.

I wonder what the percentage of first tests fall into each category. Usually a coach is taking over at the start of a new year and so the effect of a new coach would be interesting to know

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Not sure you can declare Kevin Foote as safe, particularly in world cup year when coaching movements start to accelerate.

Not gonna lie. I thought he was already sacked, and a new coach was in hence thinking the new guy was safe.

 

[RugbyReg]

Great data @RugbyReg - the rankings are often decried as pointless (ha ha) but are a decent general guide.

I wonder what the percentage of first tests fall into each category. Usually a coach is taking over at the start of a new year and so the effect of a new coach would be interesting to know

I can get that readily. Do you mean how each coach went in their first test? First games of the season are usually 'gimmes' though. Worth noting that both Link and Cheika took over 'mid-season'.

Connolly got an expected win over England
Deans got an expected win over Ireland
Link had an expected loss v NZL
Cheika had an expected win over Wales
Rennie had the only first game 'upset', a draw v NZL we were expected to lose.

 

[Pfitzy]

Cheers.

First games of the season are usually 'gimmes' though.

That will be interesting to watch as time goes on - in the old days we'd have dirt trackers turning up in June while the superstars took a rest, but I get the feeling that has changed e.g. England and Ireland the last time they toured were no mugs. Ireland in NZ this year.

 

[stoff]

Something that interests me from your analysis @RugbyReg is how the each of the coaches may have made their own fortune over time. For example Robbie Deans has a high upset rate, but a low favourites win rate. Dave Rennie has the same. Have they had early losses as favourites that inflates their upset win rate? There also seems to be the inverse correlation for Link and Knuckles - the superior win rate gives a higher ranking, thus less room for upset wins. Does your data give you visibilty on how this evolves over their time as coach?

 

[Highlander35]

Something that interests me from your analysis @RugbyReg is how the each of the coaches may have made their own fortune over time. For example Robbie Deans has a high upset rate, but a low favourites win rate. Dave Rennie has the same. Have they had early losses as favourites that inflates their upset win rate? There also seems to be the inverse correlation for Link and Knuckles - the superior win rate gives a higher ranking, thus less room for upset wins. Does your data give you visibilty on how this evolves over their time as coach?

Similarly, would there be a way to filter out the 50/50 games alone? say within the 3 ranking points in line with how World Rugby assigns the home ground advantage?

 

[Braveheart81]

There also seems to be the inverse correlation for Link and Knuckles - the superior win rate gives a higher ranking, thus less room for upset wins. Does your data give you visibilty on how this evolves over their time as coach?

McKenzie was 11.1% in upsets per Reg's stats which means he won 1 out of 9 games as underdog (which per Reg's methodology was a draw against the All Blacks).

He coached the Wallabies 22 times so he won 11 out of 13 as favourite, drew once and lost 8 times as underdog.

Except for maybe Knuckles, Deans would have consistently had the highest ranked Wallabies team so presumably his number of matches as favourite as a proportion of total matches was higher than the others.

 

[RugbyReg]

Something that interests me from your analysis @RugbyReg is how the each of the coaches may have made their own fortune over time. For example Robbie Deans has a high upset rate, but a low favourites win rate. Dave Rennie has the same. Have they had early losses as favourites that inflates their upset win rate? There also seems to be the inverse correlation for Link and Knuckles - the superior win rate gives a higher ranking, thus less room for upset wins. Does your data give you visibilty on how this evolves over their time as coach?

Deans' figures are somewhat sullied by the Lions series. According to World Rugby as a made up team, they get the ranking of the highest ranked team (England at the time) so Australia was expected to beat them each test. Obviously the Lions were better than that but the 2-1 series ends as two unexpected losses and an expected win

 

[stillmissit]

Deans was good no doubt about it but I believe he benefitted (from what I consider at least)
the best group of players from any of the recent coaches. Prime Quade, Pocock, Smith, Horwill, Vickerman, Ioane, JOC (James O'Connor) (James O'Connor), Mitchell, Palu, TPN (Tatafu Polota-Nau), Kepu, Robinson, Elsom etc. Reds won a title, Tahs were pretty good (final and semi? during this tenure).

Rennie has probably had the worst. He's had to deal with a pretty significant turnover, changing of the guard etc. lots of youth whilst not really being the generational talent that Deans had as young players.

Deans also had the 3 amigo's and the brumbies politics to deal with and picking Pocock over G.Smith was a decision that has been talked about over a longish period. Great guy with an excellent rugby brain but put too much faith in some of the players.

 

[Members Section]

Deans also had the 3 amigo's and the brumbies politics to deal with and picking Pocock over G.Smith was a decision that has been talked about over a longish period. Great guy with an excellent rugby brain but put too much faith in some of the players.

He just didn't suit our system, tried to make a wider squad without ever nailing a XV, looking back its a bit bizarre he has never coached at international level anywhere else.

 

[Dan54]

He just didn't suit our system, tried to make a wider squad without ever nailing a XV, looking back its a bit bizarre he has never coached at international level anywhere else.

Always felt Deans weakness was selecting. Thought he more suited to coaching clubs/provinces as a more settled team and less selecting.

 

[rodha]

McKenzie is still the best Wallabies coach since Rod Macqueen. Deans only did great for 2010 & 2011 seasons (mainly thanks to Nuicifora's influence) but had taken the team backwards by the end of his tenure and McKenzie didn't get enough time to implement his vision, but if stayed on Link would've taken the team to incredible heights.

My ranking of Wallaby coaches post Macqueen:

Link
Eddie
Deans/Rennie (review after 2023 season)
Cheika

Best assistant coaches:

Link (2000-2003) forwards.

Muggleton (1999-2007) defense.

Nuicifora (2010-2011) breakdown/forwards.

Blades (2004-2005 & 2012-2014) forwards.

Link wins on both accounts - the biggest & most tragic loss of coaching IP in Australian rugby history!

 

[Viking]

Yeah that tour where McKenzie shifted To'omua to 12 and Cooper at 10 we looked really slick. I was thinking this was the start of a long-term combination.

He was really the only coach who was able to get the best out of Quade, which I think was a big contributor in his success.

 

[rodha]

Yeah that tour where McKenzie shifted To'omua to 12 and Cooper at 10 we looked really slick.

Hell yes! 2013 autumn tour Wallabies were slick af, see this backline McKenzie selected tore apart Joe Schmidt's Ireland 32-15:

​

FB	15	Israel Folau
RW	14	Adam Ashley-Cooper		57'
OC	13	Tevita Kuridrani	72'
IC	12	Matt To'omua
LW	11	Nick Cummins
FH	10	Quade Cooper		68'
SH	9	Will Genia		65'

​

SH	21	Nic White		65'
CE	22	Christian Lealiifano		68'
WG	23	Joe Tomane		57'

Beat Ireland, Wales, Scotland comfortably, & only poor officiating versus England denied Link's Wallabies an historic grand slam:

2013 end-of-year rugby union internationals - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Dan54]

Yeah that tour where McKenzie shifted To'omua to 12 and Cooper at 10 we looked really slick. I was thinking this was the start of a long-term combination.

He was really the only coach who was able to get the best out of Quade, which I think was a big contributor in his success.

Wasn't that the tour where a few of the boys got on the piss,(with one of player's father who they had delight introducing to people as Link) and Link had to punish a few. I really believe that Link was never forgiven by some players and why Hooper seemed to turn on him at end of his time.