Australia v British & Irish Lions, 3rd Test (Sydney)

[cyclopath]

Personally, the team i'd like to see start:

1. Robinson
2. Moore
3. Alexander
4. Douglas
5. Horwill (c)/ Simmons
6. Smith
7. Hooper
8. Mowen
9. Genia
10. O'Connor
11. Tomane
12. Leali'ifano
13. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14. Folau
15. Beale/Mogg

16. Fainga'a
17. Slipper
18. Kepu
19. Simmons/Kimlin
20. Gill
21. Phipps
22. Horne
23. Mogg/Beale

- Our front row have been solid over the past 2 tests, should stick it to them again in the decider. Douglas and Horwill get through a mountain of work, which is no surprise. If Horwill, thanks to the IRB, doesn't get to play this coming weekend, then Deans will obviously move Simmons in.

- A back row containing Smith, Hooper and Mowen would be one of the best we can field. Having two pilferers at the breakdown will bring more concern to the Lions, ESPECIALLY if Warburton cannot play. I don't think I can put it any other way but GEORGE SMITH HAS TO BE BROUGHT INTO THE SIDE! That much experience cannot just go to waste, plus him vs someone like Lydiate will be very exciting. Hooper does a lot, but I reckon play Hooper for half and Gill for half. If only we had Pocock. Mowen has been one of the standouts over the last two games, particularly against Phillips in the first. I'm sorry, but Palu really does nothing. He's arguably been out of form for the whole of the super rugby series and is not our best choice for 8.

- Genia: Best halfback in the world, by a country mile. O'Connor has to stay at 10 now, no point in changing the positions to much before the third test. I don't understand why Deans didn't select a specialist 10 for the tour. Barnes is not, Beale is not, O'Connor is not. The option I suppose is that bring Leali'ifano into 10 and perhaps move O'Connor to 12, but they alternate positions anyway. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), excellent as always. Folau brilliant and Tomane didn't play too badly. Beale realistically just needs to be there.

- On a side note, thankyou Leali'ifano for having the ability to kick penalties.

Based on what? The vibe?
RugbyStats had him with 13 runs (most), 48m (most by a forward), 12 ruck / maul involvements (most), 1 penalty conceded (compared to Horwill and Mowen with 2 each, for example). Moore, a generally well-regarded ball runner had 11 runs for half the metres, in comparison. Their tackle stats were all missing, so can't comment there.
This oft repeated "he does nothing" is seldom supported by any statistical data, or if it is, the stats are dismissed as rubbish.
I really don't get it.

 

[Froggy]

Regardless of the stats, Palu just doesn't bend the line like he used to. He did have plenty of carries, but I wouldn't mind betting most of the quoted meters were from where he received the ball behind the gain line to where he met the defence (usually on or just short of the gain line). He had one good run in the second half, reminiscent of the way he mostly hit it up years ago.

The guy is 30, a big guy and has had a lot of injuries. Sometimes, time is up, I believe that is the case with Cliffy.

 

[cyclopath]

OK, so it is the vibe.

 

[Froggy]

I guess you can disagree, or make a snide comment!
I probably would have made a different choice!

 

[It is what it is]

Genia is captain if Horwill is out, Deans will not look elsewhere.

 

[Dai bando]

this about who's going or the test in general?

if test in general, what will the weather be like, what about the state of the ground?

Moans about the reffing as usual, how did they go and (AFAIK) this time we will have a NH ref as opposed to SH for the last two. What if anything will be different when it comes to scrums or breakdowns etc. Does this ref have form? if so for what and how could it manifest given what we've seen already.

This ref will let every thing go at scrum tyime then penalise you for doing something right, but he does it for both teams penalties are usually equal

 

[cyclopath]

I guess you can disagree, or make a snide comment!
I probably would have made a different choice!

Snide? Apologies for the upset.
Well, I find it genuinely puzzling that, regardless of his involvements, they are so easily dismissed. The other "big guys" are not making the same number of runs, nor distance. I don't seem to notice commentary on where their runs commenced, and how many metres are "real" or just starting behind the advantage line, i.e. "inflated". The fact is, he is involved a lot.

 

[Dai bando]

Can't wait for this game, my liver is still in recovery mode from Melbourne but expecting top form from it next weekend

Changes for the Lions, Vunipola, Lydiate, Warburton, Youngs, Davies out Grant, SOB, Tipuric, Murray and Manu in.

How can you say Lydiate and warbs out were you looking at warbs and lydiates contribution, BOD and Davies doesn't work, but Roberts not Tuilagi, Heaslip needs to be looked at too, contribution is mostly coming from the midfield Corbisero will/should be fit, Parling should be gone with either Evans or Gray coming in with the other on the bench Hibbard to replace youngs in the front row.
I thought Warbs had an exceptionally good game BOD was mediocre and showed his age the last 10min Phillips will be back next test, murry on the bench.

 

[Froggy]

Snide? Apologies for the upset.
Well, I find it genuinely puzzling that, regardless of his involvements, they are so easily dismissed. The other "big guys" are not making the same number of runs, nor distance. I don't seem to notice commentary on where their runs commenced, and how many metres are "real" or just starting behind the advantage line, i.e. "inflated". The fact is, he is involved a lot.

I guess I am looking at what his role is, ie the big bopper bending the defensive line a la Willie O, Kefu etc. Now, there was a time when every second time Cliffy took the ball up he made 5/15 meters, running over guys and generally playing havoc. Now he seems to be readily contained, much the same as they contain Timani. The other big guys, I assume you mean Horwill & Douglas, have a different role, being the tight stuff, the scrum, the lineout, more a workhorse. That's not why we select Palu.

My comment on where runs were taken from is really only to answer the stats you quoted, as you would well be aware often stats have to be examined more closely to really take some meaning out of them. I will certainly concede, however, he was involved (it wasn't me who said he wasn't).

 

[cyclopath]

I guess I am looking at what his role is, ie the big bopper bending the defensive line a la Willie O, Kefu etc. Now, there was a time when every second time Cliffy took the ball up he made 5/15 meters, running over guys and generally playing havoc. Now he seems to be readily contained, much the same as they contain Timani. The other big guys, I assume you mean Horwill & Douglas, have a different role, being the tight stuff, the scrum, the lineout, more a workhorse. That's not why we select Palu.

My comment on where runs were taken from is really only to answer the stats you quoted, as you would well be aware often stats have to be examined more closely to really take some meaning out of them. I will certainly concede, however, he was involved (it wasn't me who said he wasn't).

I know it wasn't you, but you picked up the ball!
I doubt anyone would make easy metres against this Lions defensive line. It is very well organised. And guys like Horwill and Moore are used as ball runners, maybe not as much, but they are.
I'm not sure playing two 7s, suggested in the team above, would work any better than it has in the past (poorly), so I would definitely keep Palu for next week, especially as I expect Horwill will be out, unfortunately.
IF Higginbotham and Mowen were available at the same time, I could see those two at 6 and 8 respectively.

 

[Sully]

Looking at the stats it looks like Palu was very involved and made good metres. I really can't understand the problem people have with him. He is a great tight playing #8 and the only one of his kind playing in this country. And sure if he played looser he'd have more run metres but we have other players to do that and not enough playing tight.
http://www.rugbystats.com.au/matches/rugby/match22231.html

 

[Froggy]

I know it wasn't you, but you picked up the ball!
I doubt anyone would make easy metres against this Lions defensive line. It is very well organised. And guys like Horwill and Moore are used as ball runners, maybe not as much, but they are.
I'm not sure playing two 7s, suggested in the team above, would work any better than it has in the past (poorly), so I would definitely keep Palu for next week, especially as I expect Horwill will be out, unfortunately.
IF Higginbotham and Mowen were available at the same time, I could see those two at 6 and 8 respectively.

Totally agree re the two 7's, and also Higgers & Mowen. Hopefully Horwill will be cleared, I see the argument as very similar to Vunipolo on AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper). Both were what appeared a nasty cheap shot, but in neither case does the perpetrator seem to be looking at the 'victim'.

 

[JSRF10]

I thought Warbs had an exceptionally good game\

He had his best game on tour, but he has done his hamstring I'd be shocked if he was fit. He still looks off his best, made some good pilfers though however his mythical ref whispering didn't make an appearance. Lydiate needs to go out because the Lions lack ball carriers, he is a great tackler and his discipline is superb but the Lions need to win the game. SOB would do the defensive work but he is an attacking option as is St Tom. The Lions can't get sucked into trying to hold on as they did yesterday they have to attack and SOB and Croft are the best options. I'd agree that BOD wasn't great but he is going to captain the side.

Simply the Lions are done if Phillips play he has been nothing short of woeful this tour, Murray offers most of Phillips physicality except he can actually pass. Although Phillips is anywhere near fit Wazza will pick him.

 

[It is what it is]

This ref will let every thing go at scrum tyime then penalise you for doing something right, but he does it for both teams penalties are usually equal

Agree, the key thing though is where on the rugby field he gives those penalties. There 'penalties' and there are "penalties"

 

[JSRF10]

Agree, the key thing though is where on the rugby field he gives those penalties. There 'penalties' and there are "penalties"

Roman Poite doesn't care about technique at scrum time he only cares about who is going forward, whichever team realises this first will benefit from his style of referring.

 

[Intruder]

. The Lions can't get sucked into trying to hold on as they did yesterday they have to attack and SOB and Croft are the best options.

Toby Faletau ? He would have to be one of the best ball carrying back rowers in the squad.

 

[JSRF10]

Toby Faletau ? He would have to be one of the best ball carrying back rowers in the squad.

He would definitely be an option but I think with SOB and Croft you'd need to keep Heaslip for his breakdown work given the Wobs will have Hooper and Gill/Smith on for 30 minutes together, plus he is still a decent carrier. However I won't worry which one played so long as the two blokes I've mentioned are there

 

[Dai bando]

He had his best game on tour, but he has done his hamstring I'd be shocked if he was fit. He still looks off his best, made some good pilfers though however his mythical ref whispering didn't make an appearance. Lydiate needs to go out because the Lions lack ball carriers, he is a great tackler and his discipline is superb but the Lions need to win the game. SOB would do the defensive work but he is an attacking option as is St Tom. The Lions can't get sucked into trying to hold on as they did yesterday they have to attack and SOB and Croft are the best options. I'd agree that BOD wasn't great but he is going to captain the side.

Simply the Lions are done if Phillips play he has been nothing short of woeful this tour, Murray offers most of Phillips physicality except he can actually pass. Although Phillips is anywhere near fit Wazza will pick him.

I have no problem with SOB but Croft, as for ball carriers Felatau is a first class Ball carrier, you give me stats on Heaslip who stands in midfield, then Felatau who works around the ruck area no comparison, drop heaslip bring in someone with a little grunt and who's not afraid to do the dirty work either,
As for tips he looks good in broken play against lesser sides but the sort of game the Aussies and the lions will play wont suit him. gatland selection has completely mystified not just me but every one on the codgers corner. I would semis gats will pick the same team, which some of the selections being baffling .

 

[JSRF10]

I have no problem with SOB but Croft, as for ball carriers Felatau is a first class Ball carrier, you give me stats on Heaslip who stands in midfield, then Felatau who works around the ruck area no comparison, drop heaslip bring in someone with a little grunt and who's not afraid to do the dirty work either,
As for tips he looks good in broken play against lesser sides but the sort of game the Aussies and the lions will play wont suit him. gatland selection has completely mystified not just me but every one on the codgers corner. I would semis gats will pick the same team, which some of the selections being baffling .

Heaslip is superb around the ruck, his counter rucking and breakdown work is superb. Faletau is a better ball carrier but if we have Croft (or Lydiate) and SOB in there we need someone who can attack the Wallabies at their own breakdowns and IMO Heaslip is just better than Toby at that. As I said though I wouldn't be too bothered either way.

I think we can argue all day about the team selections but the real issue that the Lions have is our game plan, specifically its crap and the players that are available aren't suited to it. Gatland needs to come up with something better than we've seen so far and he needs to have a plan B and C. We still look clueless with ball in hand in comparsion to the Wobs yesterday in the last 20 when they held possession. I really hope that Gatland throws off the shackles and lets the Lions go for broke, but I think he'll go for a similar plan to try and choke the Aussies in defence and hope Halfpenny gets more kicks at goal than Lilo

 

[Dai bando]

Heaslip is superb around the ruck, his counter rucking and breakdown work is superb. Faletau is a better ball carrier but if we have Croft (or Lydiate) and SOB in there we need someone who can attack the Wallabies at their own breakdowns and IMO Heaslip is just better than Toby at that. As I said though I wouldn't be too bothered either way.

I think we can argue all day about the team selections but the real issue that the Lions have is our game plan, specifically its crap and the players that are available aren't suited to it. Gatland needs to come up with something better than we've seen so far and he needs to have a plan B and C. We still look clueless with ball in hand in comparsion to the Wobs yesterday in the last 20 when they held possession. I really hope that Gatland throws off the shackles and lets the Lions go for broke, but I think he'll go for a similar plan to try and choke the Aussies in defence and hope Halfpenny gets more kicks at goal than Lilo

Perhaps Heaslip should work the ruck area I certainly haven't seen much of him there, As for the bold I agree gatland has never had a plan B and the players coming in have not adapted to this.
Will go for the same players hope for a win and say I told you so, have not been impressed with gats this tour.