The Sharks picked up the third wildcard spot last season with a total of 57 points. If we are to use history as a yardstick then the Reds and Waratahs would both fall short of securing a wildcard this season, even if they picked up six bonus point wins from their six remaining matches. At first glance it is a bit of a stretch to imagine that either the Reds or the Waratahs could make the finals unless they manage to knock off the Brumbies and win the Australian conference.
But when you have a bit of a closer look at the credentials of the other finals contenders the outlook does not look quite so grim. Let us presuppose that the Brumbies retain their position at the helm of the Australian conference and the Bull, Stormers, Chiefs and Crusaders all fight it out for the top honours in their respective conferences with the losers picking up wildcards -- not an entirely unreasonable proposition, no?
That would leave the Highlanders (34), Sharks (31), Hurricanes (30), Reds (26), Waratahs (26) and the dark horse Cheetahs (26) to fight it out for the remaining wildcard spot. The Cheetahs (26) have the toughest run home (Stormers, Sharks, Waratahs, Bye, Bulls, Stormers, Sharks) and with a base of 26 competition points it is hard to see them picking up enough points to earn a place in the finals. I do not have the gall to completely write them off though because they have been the competition's most improved team and have played some very enterprising rugby.
The Hurricanes (30) came out firing this season and caught a few teams off guard. They have looked pretty slick in attack and I have particularly enjoyed watching Beauden Barrett and Andre Taylor slice through defensive lines time after time. However, they have been exposed against quality opposition like the Crusaders (14-42) and Chiefs (14-33), been less than impressive at the breakdown and have conceded more points (289) than any team in the competition. Remembering that they have to play the Crusaders and Chiefs again as well as the Highlander, Brumbies and Waratahs, it is hard to imagine that they will accrue enough points to pick up the final wildcard.
The Highlanders (34) have looked pretty pedestrian on tour but will play out the remainder of the minor premiership in New Zealand which definitely does not hurt their chances. You would think they are going to pick up wins against the Hurricanes and Blues and have a red hot crack at the Reds, Bull, Chiefs and Crusaders but that all depends on whether they can find that form they showed at the start of the season. I would think the Highlanders would need to pick up at least four wins, plus a few bonus points to post the points tally in the mid-fifties they would need to hold out the Reds, Sharks and Waratahs. This seems like a pretty big ask for the Highlanders, given their current form, but if they can return to form a finals birth is definitely not beyond them.
The Sharks are the main contender for the final wildcard from my point of view. They are on 31 points and have, relatively speaking, an easy run home (Force, Cheetahs, Stormers, Lions, Bye, Bulls, Cheetahs). I have not seen much from the Sharks this season because I think they are boring to watch but they looked like they had it together against the Highlanders. They will probably need to upset either the Bulls or Stormers and cannot afford to lose any matches if they want to post a competitive competition points total.
I think it is reasonable to say that the biggest threat to the Reds and Waratahs wildcard ambitions are the Sharks and the Highlanders. If the Reds and Waratahs pick up five or six wins plus a few bonus points and other results fall their way I think they are in with a good chance. The other option is to take luck out of the equation and knock off the Brumbies who are currently nine points clear of them.
