I like to think that the pathway is dairy based.
Cream will rise to the top. Always has done, always will.
We are getting better at identifying cream in its' raw form but .... ... ... ... Some naturally talented athletes, who have had all development showered upon them, can and do get passed by less naturally prodigiously talented kids who haven't had all the "pathway development" opportunities. Application and attitude become rather important in Colts and Grade Footy.
The previous Schoolboy and Junior rep rugby scrapbook is of limited importance in Colts and of zero relevance in Grade. The Player is either in form and applying themselves or they are not. If the former, they get selected for Grade 1, if the latter they will be in Thirds or lower. Simple.
How some players deal with the "rejection" of not making State reps, Colts 1, First XV, First Grade, NRC or whatever they have set their mind on will often establish the genuine character of the fellow. If they give up, then they will never make it. If they put the rejection/non-selection in the "Past History - Time to move on" Tray, and keep on trying to make their next level next time around, then there is still a chance that they can achieve their aspirations.
The stats don't lie.