AB successors

[undercoverkiwi]

This is an interesting thread because the danger is the curse of being the titleholders. We have seen it time and again ( Australia England and SA) where winning the RWC made coaches and players unsackable(?) You can take the adulation too far and think that you're the World Champions no need to change things. From the outside the All Blacks always seem to endeavour to bring young players on and have a reasonable mix in their squad. The alternative is what has just happened to SA and now they almost have to build a team from scratch. The secret surely is trying to maintain a balance between retaining experience and promoting of fresh talent. The RWC cycle has a strong distorting influence on achieving this. Clearly it's easier said then done!! The WBs certainly struggle with this. Good luck! We'll see how you went with it in four years!

Spot on. England post 2003 and SA post 2007 were guilty of not making the big calls soon enough. I expect by next November we’ll start seeing some big decisions with players being shunted aside. Expect a lot of retirements at the end of 2012 and 2013.

Key positions we need to think about are, umm, pretty much all of them. Experience wins RWCs but it leaves us with an old team. I expect our starting XV in 2015 to be very different to what it is now, although it’s surprising how many of 2011’s side weren’t involved in 2007, so four years is a long time to build.

Hika Eliot seems the logical guy at hooker, and Ben Franks to replace Woodcock. I’d like to see Donnelly brought back in now Thorn is gone – I’m just not convinced Hoeata’s got the grunt although they say he’s a bit of an animal. Matt Todd will get his debut next year, and Vito will get the first shot at taking over from Kaino.

Ellis has the box seat at 9, Cuden and Slade at 10. Perhaps Savea (although not convinced) on one wing, and I’m guessing (hoping) someone we haven’t yet heard of will take the other wing. Kahui will be the 13, 12 is anyone’s guess, Toeava? And Dagg has 15 covered.

I’m pretty sure that at the end of 2007 names like Franks, Franks, Elliot, Whitelock, Boric, Read, Kaino, Weepu, Cowan, Cruden, Slade, Guildford, Dagg, Nonu and Kahui were either unheard of, very raw, or just not considered good enough. And now those guys are all World Champions. So there’s time, but it needs to start ASAP.

EDIT: forgot Rene Ranger.

 

[undercoverkiwi]

My worry about Read is this:

I think one of the most commonly confronted hurdles in captaincy is when there are doubts about the captain retaining their position in the side. The most fiercely contested position in the All Blacks is the back-row (or maybe the wing) and we have this habit of picking back-rowers as captain then being surprised when their playing merits get called into question (see: Randell, Blackadder, Thorne...).

McCaw never had to worry about this because he was such a freak, but Read is merely very very good. So I worry that, although Read is undeniably the best number 8 we have now, some young gun will come up in a couple of years and place further stress on an already-fledgling captaincy.

Having said that, I have no better ideas. Unless Cruden really comes on over the next year or two, in which case he could be a good/interesting option.

I don't see anyone within a million miles of Read at 8. Do you have anyone else in mind?

 

[WhoDaresWin]

Hika Eliot seems the logical guy at hooker, ....

who do you see as his backup - long term??

With Cruden at 10 for the Chiefs next season, I'd like to see Kahui move a bit closer to 12 to get them to play a little bit more together. The two could be our next great hope in the midfield with probably Fruean at 13.

as for the wingers, it will be at the Coach's discretion as we have so many capable ones.

 

[cnealefx]

Great thread. The time to start preparing for 2015 starts next year and whoever the coaching group is (another thread topic?) needs to start taking opportunities to building towards retaining the cup and gettingn the right players ready. That damn thing was way too hard to get back so it should be a lesson to us to never let it go again.
Ben Afreaki featured in the tri-nations squad and is likely to feature in the future
Hika Elliot has to be the front runner to replace Mealamu & Hore who both haven't got many more years.
Owen Franks is still young and getting better
Hoeata, Whitelock, Boric & Donnelly mean locks are well covered
Vito to step up when Kaino moves on
Todd to 7
Read to captain at 8
Likely halfbacks are Mathewson & Kerr-Barlow
Anscombe at flyhalf
12 is the glaring gap for mine. Nonu will be finished soon and SBW long gone by 2015
Kahui or Fruen to take over Smith at 13
Guilford & Maitland as future wingers
and Dagg at 15
McCaw needs to transition to player-coach close to 2015 and operate as super sub covering loose positions on the bench

 

[undercoverkiwi]

who do you see as his backup - long term??

With Cruden at 10 for the Chiefs next season, I'd like to see Kahui move a bit closer to 12 to get them to play a little bit more together. The two could be our next great hope in the midfield with probably Fruean at 13.

as for the wingers, it will be at the Coach's discretion as we have so many capable ones.

Dane Coles? All our hookers are pretty old.

Not convinced by Fruean but hope he has a big S15 next year.

 

[numbertwo]

Again I'm an outsider so not really qualified to make any comments on specific people. But what kind of proportion of the 2015 ABs be from the 2011? I said earlier that I think the RWC has a distorting influence. What I meant by that is that I think a country should always pick its best squad at that time. I don't mean that you should ignore the future, but I would have thought that a responsible selection policy always has an eye on both the present and the future. You should pick teams to win tests. The rest will look after itself if you are a competent selector. This is where I think NZ has it over Oz because of the pressure for selection, the truth will out. This is not always the case with the WBs. So what we are left with is shouldn't it be that about at least 10 of the ABs at the next RWC are who knows?

 

[Jay]

Dane Coles? All our hookers are pretty old.

Not convinced by Fruean but hope he has a big S15 next year.

Dane Coles has almost no physical presence for a hooker. The only way he's Elliott's backup is if Hika moves back to the Canes.

 

[WhoDaresWin]

Dane Coles has almost no physical presence for a hooker. The only way he's Elliott's backup is if Hika moves back to the Canes.

I thought Coles has signed with the Rebels??

 

[Jay]

I thought Coles has signed with the Rebels??

Haven't heard anything about that. He's in a position to be the first choice hooker now Hore has gone, so it'd be a strange time to leave.

 

[WhoDaresWin]

Haven't heard anything about that. He's in a position to be the first choice hooker now Hore has gone, so it'd be a strange time to leave.

damn, I had him confused with Ged Robinson....

Anyways, for him to be in real contention for ABs duty, he needs to bulk up and play a bit more tight.

 

[Antony]

He's 103 kegs according to the hurricanes website, so hopefully it won't be too hard for him to bulk up a bit, mealamu-style.

 

[Jay]

He's 103 kegs according to the hurricanes website, so hopefully it won't be too hard for him to bulk up a bit, mealamu-style.

I just dunno if he's gonna be able to physically impose himself on the bigger tight forwards, even if he puts on a few pounds.

 

[BrumbiesPolynesian]

Ill put it out there, but Jack Lam from the Hurricanes...I think if he produces another big S15 like he did this season, he will be on the radar...he was the most consistant player for the Canes this year, probably the most destructive in Defense...(watch game V Bulls)....but there is talk that he could be a bolter if he produces again next year.

 

[Bullrush]

Ill put it out there, but Jack Lam from the Hurricanes...I think if he produces another big S15 like he did this season, he will be on the radar...he was the most consistant player for the Canes this year, probably the most destructive in Defense...(watch game V Bulls)....but there is talk that he could be a bolter if he produces again next year.

Isn't he Canberra boy? Or an Aussie anyway....

 

[Jay]

Isn't he Canberra boy? Or an Aussie anyway....

He's Sekope Kepu in reverse, I think. Born in NZ raised in Aus and come back to play rugby.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

So who is in line to replace Zac Guilford:

Witnesses said the winger turned up wet, naked and bleeding at Trader Jacks on the main island of Rarotonga on Thursday night local time - about 10pm Friday NZT.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10765764

Are you blokes gonna keep this up for 4 years?

 

[Dan54]

Good point IS, I seriously think ZG is going to have to be turfed for a couple of years at least, so he can get his shit together, though with him starting to get a rep for drinking not sure how much leeway you can afford to give him. I know he did it hard when his dad died, but .......

 

[Inside Shoulder]

I reckon:
(a) he's a bloody good footballer
(b) he is in danger of not realising his potential
(c) he needs to be kept on a short leash by AB management

....hold on (a) why am I telling NZ what to do and (b) what if they listen?

 

[Inside Shoulder]

I like the sound of the cops: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10766104

He's bloody lucky they took such a lenient view.
Man he must have been well sauced and still no hint how he came to be nude.

He's a good looking bloke so I'm not surprised 5 women escorted him......