There's a storm brewing in world rugby
Sometimes when a storm approaches, it doesn’t approach with thunder and glory, but rather as a whisper, moving slowly until it opens the heavens for a shower of rain that catches you unawares.
Similarly in the game of rugby, sometimes game changes approach at such a whisper that we hardly realise it until it is too late, and we pay the price for not being prepared. Forewarned is forearmed as they say.
So some may call me paranoid when on Tuesday two incidents brought on a mild case of alarm, but knowing how rugby runs its course, I can see some deeply worrying roads lying ahead for the sport.
As I finished watching the Newcastle ambush of the Wallabies, a defeat built on administrators' belief that the modern rugby player is a machine that needs no preparation, a press release from the International Rugby Board flittered its way into my inbox announcing that Ted – World Cup winning coach Graham Henry – had replaced Jake White on the IRB’s Rugby Committee.
Now at first glance these two would seem as normal day-to-day happenings in the modern game, but if you delve deeper, you would have to worry a bit more at some of the trends that are starting to appear.
We all know by now the problems with a long and drawn-out Super Rugby season, and we will only see the effects of a seven-month season in the next year or so. The draw, made for television appetites, has favoured Australia in so many ways, giving them a conference, a guaranteed spot in the playoffs and more rugby than they have ever had before.
But in contrast it has lengthened the season, played havoc with player injuries, and has all but devalued the domestic competitions in both New Zealand and South Africa.
For the Aussies though, it has been a goldrush, as they finally have a system to try and increase their depth and strengthen the product in markets they never had before.
Now back to the ambush. There is no rugby brain in world rugby that would have approved a test match three days after the conclusion of a round of derbies in Super Rugby. It was short-sighted, it was stupid and it set the Wallabies up to fail.
While it may have been about commerce, the decision had no rationale. As is the decision to play Six Nations champions Wales four days after the Newcastle debacle.
But it would have made financial sense. It was a revenue builder. It was another test for the public to buy into, and John O’Neill, the ultimate commercial spin-doctor, has spun the web so well that team success and player welfare are a secondary consideration.
O’Neill ironically is someone who comes up whenever the game is being “modernised”, and whenever changes are made to a product that seems perfectly good as it is.
While the seemingly unrelated bit about the IRB Rugby Committee might seem far from the point, the worry is not so much about Ted’s elevation as the fact that as a prominent rugby nation, South Africa no longer has a voice in the way the game is shaped.
The Rugby Committee is the soul of the game, I was once told. It is its heartbeat, its conscience and the movement whereby rugby men keep the game on its course.
New Zealand now have two voices there, with Kiwi convenor Graham Mourie, while the rest of those making up the committee are Bill Beaumont (England), Giancarlo Dondi (Italy), Michael Hawker (Australia), John Jeffrey (Scotland), David Pickering (Wales), Agustin Pichot (Argentina), Koji Tokumasu (Japan), Pat Whelan (Ireland) and Raul Martins (FIRA-AER), player Fabien Pelous (France) and coach Graham Henry (New Zealand). A further announcement detailing the appointment of a leading former women's international player will be made in the coming days.
While South Africa’s physical strengths have always been a problem abroad, the Aussie blueprint for making the game more like Rugby League is something that has to a large extent, dominated changes in the way rugby has been played over the past few years.
Scrums have been tinkered with so much that they are now simply an eyesore, and we don’t even need to mention the breakdown.
The one light at the end of the tunnel has always been a rugby debate by opposing views so that physicality is not taken out of the game forever. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for improvements, but the way the breakdown has changed over the past few years makes it quite possible to see us heading towards a rugby league tackle-and-place situation.
With competitions getting longer, and tours now being squeezed between domestic competitions, the only logical way to level the playing field is to come back to a global season, an idea killed off by the Northern Hemisphere.
Until then we will continue to see midweek tests, little time for preparation, and teams’ physical resources being stretched beyond the limit. These will have their own consequences, which are likely to impact on how the game is being played, and in essence the work of the IRB’s Rugby Committee in future.
And despite winning two World Cups and consistently being in the top three in World Rugby we won’t have a voice as a leading rugby nation. When even Japan and Italy can decide how the game is played, and there is no South African say, I get worried.
There are danger signs in world rugby at the moment, not least a Wallaby team losing on a Tuesday in horrendous conditions. I may be worried for nothing, but how far away are we from an altered game which produces tries and negates the setpiece, which produces high scores and forgets the soul of the game?
Rugby has its share of problems at the moment, but more games will only see more players seek the peaceful and well-paying shores of Japan and France. More changes will only see the game head towards being a League hybrid.
As I feel here for Robbie Deans licking his wounds after defeat, and hope for Heyneke Meyer’s first test to be more merciful, I am hoping that this game doesn’t head that way.
If I’m wrong I’ll be only too happy to admit it.