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raying:
RedsHappy
Tony Shaw (54)
Agree with all above. Wallabies general record at Suncorp is excellent and perfect w-l v SA there in particular. + SA teams last game in Oz before return home is often a down performance for them. Brisbane is the Wallabies best chance overall. But, against that, unlike last year when there was so much talk of 'building something special with Robbie' and 'self-belief in the team', this year is way different as they come into the July 24 match. No steel platform was built from Ireland, instead we have rickety cardboard.
I also think it's likely Oz will lose both NZ games in Oz. SA will have superb confidence coming out of June games and S14 triumphs.
SA to win the Tris.
Btw, if Oz go down very badly in Tris (a la 2009), I think it's likely to very likely RD will then be going home. The pressure at this point on the ARU will be enormous (let alone that from GAGR) with the RWC on the horizon. And, further, quite likely Link will be offered.
MajorlyRagerly
Trevor Allan (34)
No worse than they are on here!
Gotta remember after all the heated debate over Deans/Henry there are some people who are overjoyed to see Robbie struggling. Although, if you look deep down, I think you'll find all are pretty a careful eye on the Wobs 2011.
PB - kiwis' calling boks arrogant about rugby and vice versa are both massive pot kettle black situations. One look over the Boks squad, then another over the Blacks squad, shows where the bragging rights belong right about now tho.
RedsHappy
Tony Shaw (54)
Though perhaps wise to remember that amongst all the bile, back in 2007/8 there were some more thoughtful, calmer critiques re Deans in NZ:
One, the line went, that he had done a poor job whilst assisting Mitchell with the ABs, too much selection experimentation, new player flops, games plans that didn't work etc;
Two, that the stars in the Crusaders, and general depth underpinning that team/region etc, were as much a part of Deans' success there as was Deans' innate coaching ability. No one was saying that Deans did other than a good/very good job with the Crusaders, but there were these cautions about directly extrapolating that to the intn Test arena where there may not be those underlying strengths.
D
daz
Guest
I just can't see that happening RH. For a start, it will mean that JON has to admit his hand-picked candidate was a failure, and therefore, his selection was wrong. Snowballs in hell and flying pigs leap to mind.
Secondly, we are a year out from the RWC. While I appreciate Link turned things around in QLD within a year, doing the same for the Wobs is far more problematic. Say Link comes in in December. The Wobs will have disbanded back to thier regional camps for S15 pre-season. S15 runs to end May. This leaves Link June - September to completely overhaul not only the squad, but the methodology that RD has embeded over 3 seasons. Don't forget, Link has nil national head coaching experience. RD now has 3 years worth. RD's pedigree is better to date, simple as that.
End result with Link? The Wobs will probably do very poorly at the RWC.
Keep RD, and we may still do poorly at the RWC, but then again, we may not. The odds are better maintaining the status quo.
The other point you make is that there will be enormous pressure on the ARU. Pressure from who? The journos are toothless and prone to tow the line; the fans will still turn up to games because we are hopeful the turnaround will strat to show signs of life; ex-Wallabies will bleat a bit but who listens to ex-players anyway? And who within the ARU will go toe to toe with JON to demand change? QLD? NSW? That's a laugh; they are a bigger boys club than the Hitler Youth.
RedsHappy
Tony Shaw (54)
Intriguing speculation, is it not?
With a shocker of a 2010 3N behind us and, say, loss also of the BC, JO'N's rationale for holding RD through to the RWC (or anything else) is then hanging by a tiny thread. The 'long-term development and youth' line will be hugely worn down. RD will have nearly completed 3 full seasons. The up-to-now docile rugby media will at last be questioning Deans (how could they not?). The ex-player brigade will likely then be on the bandwagon. (And even Gagger might be writing to the Prime Minister noting a change of mind (;-)). Remember, just this week JO'N stated that we wanted to see 3N silverware this year and a 70% w-l ratio (he dusted that goal off from last year).
JO'N is a business pragmatist above all else (and a good one). IF RD was to be saved for the RWC and things went badly there, scaling from the RWC 2007 loss, this 2008-11 period under RD would be a genuine disaster for the ARU. There would surely be calls for top heads to roll at the ARU in that final, awful eventuality.
But a new coach in say September/October 2010 (which is when the change would happen, if it did) could refresh everything, immediately change elements of the team, and perhaps rebuild much more credible hope for 2011-13. JO'N would have to admit an error, but there would also be gilded excuses re injuries, need to improve Australian player depth, great new talent arriving, etc. And JO'N will (rightly) be betting that the 2011 S15 year could be a very good one for Australian rugby and our S15 teams with some timely good glow for him/ARU coming from that.
So, IMO daz, the overall calculus is complicated. Your points are valid too. But I stand by my assessment above (for now).
D
daz
Guest
I still think RD should be given a full RWC cycle to prove himself.
Anyway, does Link have a get out clause in his contract should a national position be offered? I suppose he does (as standard these days), but let's see what a full strength Wobs squad can do first.
Ash
Michael Lynagh (62)
Alexander and TPN are definately back? I understood that TPN is very unlikely, and Alexander is definately out. Has there been confirmation somewhere on either?
Let's look at the second England test - Robinson, Moore/TPN, Alexander, Horwill, Palu. The difference these guys could have made to the performance of the forwards is huge.
Reddy!
Bob Davidson (42)
At the end of the day, whilst I have been critical, I will still be cheering on the Wallabies and it is possible that anything can happen. If there is anything sport has taught me, it is to expect the unexpected. I support the Wallabies, not the Robbie Deans Wallabies, not the Qantas Wallabies or the JO'N Wallabies. Coaches and sponsors and administrators come and go.
PaarlBok
Rod McCall (65)
Sport works in cycles. In modern international rugby it works with the WC tournaments. Problem with Deans (and I have huge respect for him) is that he keep on chopping and changing maybe to do with player depth? dunno but he should strive to consistency within his picks to get on track. Snor was excellent in this regard, he made sure he kept the core of 2007 on the one hand but he also reward form newbies like Aplon and F Louw now. He do have some favourates but he is pretty much a old school coach and have a excellent relationship of trust within his squad.
You can expect the unexpected as much as you like but the big tests is all about BMT and experience. Thats something you cant buy at your local shop, have to be consistant in selection to get the rewards.
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