@amiright
Mate, in my mind the timetable of who outlasts who is not a big swinging schwang contest between IPRU and ARU.
Clyne put forward evidence of the need to cut Super Rugby in the form of a graph. That graph did not justify 4 teams, it justified 3. All clearly tabled for detail with our "partners" in NZRU adn SARU. Who thinks they didnt notice?
We have temporary measures in place, sorted out mid-stream and the broadcast deal coming to an end in roughly two years. SARU has it's own problems, which by the way value Kiwi input but not Australian input. Australia is widely reputed to not be interested in South Africa either.
There is a sorting out coming one way or another and the broadcast deal renegotiation would seem to be a likely stress test.
I cant see Super Rugby continuing in anything like it's current form from that point. ARU in the shrink to greatness strategy have carefully lopped down our negotiating power, in the same way they have reduced our viewer numbers. Maybe all WA rugby fans wont discontinue watching Super Rugby but the number sure as hell goes down. And any supposed improvements have to overcome a general down trend, now with the stepped increase that is the shrinking to greatness strategy.
With a reasonable view of the situation, NOW assess which is likely to last longer?
IPRU or Super? I cant for the life of me see Super continuing, other than keeping the brand name within some revised scenario. And the concept that such a revised programme would commence negotiation withOUT the southern hemisphere's only obvious interested billionaire at the table - seems to me to be laughable.
Here is a bold prediction - presuming the the Twig actually gets the IPRU going, and yes that continues to be a stretch, whatever is happening in Australian professional rugby from, say, 2020, will include a team called the Western Force.
I am no way near so confident that it will also include all of Rebels, Brumbies, Waratahs, Reds.
The ARU entirely and solely holds the can for this. In the mean time better hope Twig is successful as it doesnt look gook in the medium term otherwise.