Where to for Super Rugby?

[cyclopath]

Either way, they all fold under pressure.

Touche

 

[John S]

We've got one. It's called the NRC. How are the ratings for it going?

Could be better if it was on FTA, but that's another argument for another thread.

 

[kickedmyheight]

Firstly, I would note that there is a strategic change that will impact all sports over the next 10 years with a massive reduction in money from television. This will have some benefits for Rugby as they are currently not getting that much from it compared to the NRL and Rugby in Europe. The next 10 years are going to be tough no matter what but by being proactive, we can put ourselves in a better position to rebuild. Otherwise, we will just be waiting for things to get worse.

Secondly, I would do a complete review of expenses. We need to be skinny.

Thirdly, announce 2 new mini competitions.
- A Championship club competition between the winners of the various club competitions.
- A direct copy of the FFA cup - knockout, open to any club around Australia

Fourthly, make a decision on what the point of Super Rugby/NRC is for Australia. Is it a feeder for the Wallabies, is it a club competition like the NRL or is it a provincial "state of origin" type competition. At the moment, I am not sure that the ARU have a clear view on this and I am sure that the various unions around Australia have different views. If it is to be a feeder for the Wallabies, then control needs to be centralised. If it is to be a club competition, then the salary cap / top up process needs to be equalised.

Finally, make a decision on whether Super Rugby has run its course. I have historically been a fan of the concept, but this has been a massive disaster. There are a number of big issues which include timing of games - the games in South Africa for the Rebels basically don't exist for me -, the availability of viewing - having it on Foxtel sucks and also the fact that we play a NZ team every bloody week (we would have the same problem with the A league if the teams happened to be playing Brazilian teams every week). I think that we need to stick out the rest of the contract. Tell SANZAAR that we are having 5 teams (and go for a full round robin rather than these dumb conferences). Take the opportunity to pull funding from some of the governments offering it. And then plan for a new and improved NRC to be the top competition for Australia from 2021. I'd be going for a streaming option for broadcasting (as per the NBA in the US) - say $100 per year (in line with the NBA). Hopefully with an aim to hit 200,000 subscribers a year. 1 game a week on FTA (someone must want it for free (at least initially)). Wallabies games still on FTA.

The alternative to the final option, is to pull a team; Watch the immediate decline of rugby in one state; Wait until 2020 and realise that removing a team hasn't helped; The broadcast deal collapses and we receive materially less money and are back to being reactive.

I agree with pretty much all of this. The devil will be in the details but as a starting point/overarching strategy it is ages ahead of anything we have seen coming out the ARU so far.

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[wamberal]

Time may prove me wrong, but my thoughts around Cox have always been he is a wealthy guy with a hobby. He understands he is going to need to throw some cash at it. He has also continued to mitigate his potential loss by getting the ARU to throw wads of cash at him. Right now he has a chance for his hobby to be funded by others for a bit longer by milking the ARUs saving on folding a team out of them, as well as maybe picking up some state government cash along the way. If he could extract an extra million a year from the ARU as a settlement, and a million a year from the government, things probably start to look pretty viable as a business as well. If there are four teams he can get a few more Wallabies meaning the ARU picks up a bit more of the tab.


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And as an outsider, this kind of sums up the attitude that seems to prevail south of the border towards the game of rugby.


If it does, you deserve to fail, and you will fail. Rugby in Australia is not a business. It is, at heart, an amateur game, with a little bit of professional icing.


Amateurism is primarily about love of a game. You people do not seem to love the game. You seem to want to exploit it.

 

[wamberal]

I agree with pretty much all of this. The devil will be in the details but as a starting point/overarching strategy it is ages ahead of anything we have seen coming out the ARU so far.

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The details are actually very important. A strategy is only worth supporting if the details - boring stuff like proper market research, and reliable forecasts - are credible.


Without those, it is not a strategy, it is a scenario.

 

[stoff]

stoff, even if you are right, hasn't the whole Rebels' business look-forward calculus darkened considerably with (a) the very poor 2017 levels of Rebels' crowds and (b) the matching poor Rebels w-l ratio, etc, etc?

The economic, cash flow and general risk impact of these negatives must be significant for the Rebels' owners not only via 2017's P&L position but equally 2018's (recalling that the ARU's cash subsidy to the Rebels reduces every year).

In the same context surely Cox knows that if the Rebels survive the ARU culling process, major changes in coaches and playing roster will be needed to revive the Rebels to economically and commercially viable levels. This all costs incremental cash flow and impacts business risk profile.

And it's not just money, it's a dauntingly big management and board task in both time and effort to have to re-transform a grossly underperforming rugby franchise especially when the code is in serious national trouble as well.

Cox has boldly told the players he will not sell his rugby licence. Despite no doubt realising that his valiant Rebels project is now definitely going to be harder and take longer and require much more cash than he budgeted for or knew back in 2015.

The meaning of all the above supports a theory - as you have outlined it above - that if Cox is sincere re 'no sale' he simply has to, no alternative, extract from this process both higher and longer cash subsidies from ARU and/or more State government support.

If he can't so extract he'll know that likely means: 'I have to put more personal cash in in the serious $s millions, or fold the Rebels business this year'.

History says he can extract. The ARU's conduct in this matter also makes it highly likely he can.

The crowds and the w-l have direct correlation. Fix the S&C and coaching and as the Force showed earlier in the year, on field can turn around quickly.




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[kickedmyheight]

The details are actually very important. A strategy is only worth supporting if the details - boring stuff like proper market research, and reliable forecasts - are credible.

Of course the details are important, which is why I mentioned them as being so. However from our current position of not having that information available I see this strategy as being as credible as any other suggested. The research would need to be done and there would obviously be many bridges to cross to achieve these outcomes, but it would be difficult to put Aus rugby into a worse position atm!

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[blues recovery]

And as an outsider, this kind of sums up the attitude that seems to prevail south of the border towards the game of rugby.


If it does, you deserve to fail, and you will fail. Rugby in Australia is not a business. It is, at heart, an amateur game, with a little bit of professional icing.


Amateurism is primarily about love of a game. You people do not seem to love the game. You seem to want to exploit it.

I made a decision a while ago to ignore your ridiculous comments
But I can't let this one pass
It is in an insult to the scores of volunteers that I know personally , who have dedicated their time and efforts into growing the game in Victoria at both amateur and professional level for just the love of it . No different to those people right around the country who are neglected by the fools in charge of the game at HO
Shame on you for your ill informed and frankly outright rude comments
You really just have no frigging idea
Now I'll get back to me position of ignoring every post from you

 

[dru]

So if the ARU are potentially at war with the two franchises and positions are now entrenched on all sides, what are their options? It seems to be risk of legal action from one or more of the Force, Rebels or SANZAAR. It seems they're now buggered whichever option they choose.

I like to think I know a bit about strategy, but I honestly don't know what I'd do if I were them now. What do others think?

Veto SANZAAR
Keep Rebels and force to 2020
No bail outs for those two, they liquidate if not financial.
Pull out at 2020 to something better. Domestic format probably with end of season SOO. Three teams good.

That SOO could be Super if they want it. They won't so it's domestic

Then roll on the internationals.

 

[Dave Beat]

I made a decision a while ago to ignore your ridiculous comments
But I can't let this one pass
It is in an insult to the scores of volunteers that I know personally , who have dedicated their time and efforts into growing the game in Victoria at both amateur and professional level for just the love of it . No different to those people right around the country who are neglected by the fools in charge of the game at HO
Shame on you for your ill informed and frankly outright rude comments
You really just have no frigging idea
Now I'll get back to me position of ignoring every post from you

Wamberal was merley passing reference to a comment of stoff, who passed comment on someone else.

You are shooting the wrong person.

Many of Wamberal's posts have been about ensuring the good of the game - saying he has no frigging idea, dude I have no idea what you've been reading.

And FYI;
I like the Rebels,
I like Rugby,
I'd like to see all 5 stay.

 

[Dave Beat]

Veto SANZAAR
Keep Rebels and force to 2020
No bail outs for those two, they liquidate if not financial.
Pull out at 2020 to something better. Domestic format probably with end of season SOO. Three teams good.

That SOO could be Super if they want it. They won't so it's domestic

Then roll on the internationals.

Interesting / Fair / Can it happen?
My biggest concern here would be - could the players suffer by none payment?

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Sadly, with the fact the Rebels are 3 months + behind on staff and player recruitment because of this shamozzle, which means that if they get to stick around next year it'll likely be a tough one too.

its not just the Rebels - all the franchises have been forbidden from signing non-wallabies: and the ARU take their own sweet time "deciding" who is to go.
These guys are nothing but clowns

 

[stoff]

I made a decision a while ago to ignore your ridiculous comments
But I can't let this one pass
It is in an insult to the scores of volunteers that I know personally , who have dedicated their time and efforts into growing the game in Victoria at both amateur and professional level for just the love of it . No different to those people right around the country who are neglected by the fools in charge of the game at HO
Shame on you for your ill informed and frankly outright rude comments
You really just have no frigging idea
Now I'll get back to me position of ignoring every post from you

I think people forget that up until 6 years ago all we had was amateur rugby. Despite that we pumped our money into Wallabies tests, super rugby trials, Foxtel subscriptions, etc supporting the professional game. I personally have attended more amateur games than pro over the last two years and I am talking division 2 VRU, not premier rugby. I have coached as a volunteer to help my high school maintain an under 16s program that was and probably still is at risk of folding on an annual basis.

What has been achieved in this state by volunteers and professionals since pro rugby came to town is immense. I have no problem with people working the system to protect this.


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[Dave Beat]

1. I have coached as a volunteer to help my high school maintain an under 16s program that was and probably still is at risk of folding on an annual basis.
2. What has been achieved in this state by volunteers and professionals since pro rugby came to town is immense.

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1. Great work, there is often allot of enjoyment and achievement in this.
2. Whilst up in NSW i don't get to see it or support it - but hear on good authority the pathway and systems with VRU are good.

Working the system - neither do i so long as it's in the best interest of Australian Rugby.

 

[amirite]

I think people forget that up until 6 years ago all we had was amateur rugby. Despite that we pumped our money into Wallabies tests, super rugby trials, Foxtel subscriptions, etc supporting the professional game. I personally have attended more amateur games than pro over the last two years and I am talking division 2 VRU, not premier rugby. I have coached as a volunteer to help my high school maintain an under 16s program that was and probably still is at risk of folding on an annual basis.

What has been achieved in this state by volunteers and professionals since pro rugby came to town is immense. I have no problem with people working the system to protect this.


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Being a local volunteer you would have noticed the complete difference in quality and numbers in amateur rugby pre/post local professionalism.

Victorian amateur rugby needs professional rugby, especially because local rugby league have gotten their shit together in the last 5 years since the Rebels started.

And as an outsider, this kind of sums up the attitude that seems to prevail south of the border towards the game of rugby.


If it does, you deserve to fail, and you will fail. Rugby in Australia is not a business. It is, at heart, an amateur game, with a little bit of professional icing.



Amateurism is primarily about love of a game. You people do not seem to love the game. You seem to want to exploit it.

Honestly mate, this post is drivel. A silly rant at an incorrect target.

Would've expected better.

 

[Quick Hands]

Stiles and Gibson, subtly or otherwise, are leading the pack already with various references to 'the Australian malaise'.

Which they have both played their part in creating.

 

[Dave Beat]

Honestly mate, this post is drivel. A silly rant at an incorrect target.

Would've expected better.

I've done it before, no doubt you have, we've all got caught up in a rant - and moving right along.

 

[RedsHappy]

The details are actually very important. A strategy is only worth supporting if the details - boring stuff like proper market research, and reliable forecasts - are credible.

Without those, it is not a strategy, it is a scenario.

Please despatch the above to the ARU's 'Corporate Strategy' department.

It's yearning for knowledge, and is 'trying to learn from experience'.

It's evidently still at the 'scenario' stage of evolution.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Firstly, I would note that there is a strategic change that will impact all sports over the next 10 years with a massive reduction in money from television. This will have some benefits for Rugby as they are currently not getting that much from it compared to the NRL and Rugby in Europe. The next 10 years are going to be tough no matter what but by being proactive, we can put ourselves in a better position to rebuild. Otherwise, we will just be waiting for things to get worse.

Secondly, I would do a complete review of expenses. We need to be skinny.

Thirdly, announce 2 new mini competitions.
- A Championship club competition between the winners of the various club competitions.
- A direct copy of the FFA cup - knockout, open to any club around Australia

Fourthly, make a decision on what the point of Super Rugby/NRC is for Australia. Is it a feeder for the Wallabies, is it a club competition like the NRL or is it a provincial "state of origin" type competition. At the moment, I am not sure that the ARU have a clear view on this and I am sure that the various unions around Australia have different views. If it is to be a feeder for the Wallabies, then control needs to be centralised. If it is to be a club competition, then the salary cap / top up process needs to be equalised.

Finally, make a decision on whether Super Rugby has run its course. I have historically been a fan of the concept, but this has been a massive disaster. There are a number of big issues which include timing of games - the games in South Africa for the Rebels basically don't exist for me -, the availability of viewing - having it on Foxtel sucks and also the fact that we play a NZ team every bloody week (we would have the same problem with the A league if the teams happened to be playing Brazilian teams every week). I think that we need to stick out the rest of the contract. Tell SANZAAR that we are having 5 teams (and go for a full round robin rather than these dumb conferences). Take the opportunity to pull funding from some of the governments offering it. And then plan for a new and improved NRC to be the top competition for Australia from 2021. I'd be going for a streaming option for broadcasting (as per the NBA in the US) - say $100 per year (in line with the NBA). Hopefully with an aim to hit 200,000 subscribers a year. 1 game a week on FTA (someone must want it for free (at least initially)). Wallabies games still on FTA.

The alternative to the final option, is to pull a team; Watch the immediate decline of rugby in one state; Wait until 2020 and realise that removing a team hasn't helped; The broadcast deal collapses and we receive materially less money and are back to being reactive.

Thanks for the considered and serious reply. I actually agree with much of it. The mini-competitions would be tough to get off the ground initially because of the money factor, but I like the idea of club sides being able to play across comps against each other.

In terms of priority, I would see the NRC/Super rugby acting primarily as a feeder to the Wallabies, our premier rugby product. If the Wallabies are successful, it drives interest in the game, just like our other international sports. IMHO the pathway for elite rugby must have that in mind.

 

[Dave Beat]

If the Wallabies are successful, it drives interest in the game, just like our other international sports. IMHO the pathway for elite rugby must have that in mind.

• Is there a pathway?
• What is the pathway?
• Is there a way to hop on the path?

These questions relate to a wrath of threads I've posted on / in.

As if the pathway is grand, our Wallabies can be to. But I feel because the pathway has been neglected rugby at the varying levels down from the Wallabies is now feeling the pinch BIG TIME.

I honestly believe the 2 best pathways in Australia at present relate to the Force & the Rebels - and cudos to both of them.

Here is a question and I'm guessing the answer.
Q. In the starting 13 of all NRL teams what % of players went through the public high school system?
A. I'm guessing greater than 70%.
So I ask the questions - is public high school on the radar because the talent is there.