Where to for Super Rugby?

[amirite]

Im basing my posts on what is the criteria announced by the ARU, financial sustainability. Snyde remarks, while cute and oh so hilarious, do not address financial sustainability.

So parochial. Can't you see that I, someone who's never been on the ground at a rugby game in Perth, knows more about this than you?

Force should join with the Reds to form the North-Western Reds. It makes perfect sense, it's a quick plane ride, it'd fix the Perth pathway (which is already mostly Queenslanders, right?), and they'd have a much bigger catchment area.

Or, maybe you see the irony I'm trying to tease out. Probably not though, if past behavior is a prediction of future behavior.

 

[amirite]

so this is based on conversations on two separate occasions in 2011 with people from within the Brumbies organisation (one coaching, one administration) at the time. it was in the unlikely scenario that Melbourne wasn't going to be awarded the next Super licence. it formed the basis of the MOU between the VRU and ACTRU/Brumbies, and was to initially play some Brumbies games in Melbourne and eventually move the franchise. Both parties i spoke too were pretty adamant that the Brumbies would have to move at some stage in order to survive. Whether the two men i spoke with were playing to the crowd, i don't know, however the impression i was given was that talks were well advanced.

I am not calling you a liar, but I will say I hear plenty of BS from influential rugby people. Stuff they're optimistic about but likely won't happen. Plus the rule of Chinese whispers.

I think it's very fair to say off of two discussions to say it was "likely" and "all parties wanted it" is a stretch. Unless those two discussions were formal meetings.

 

[Braveheart81]

Having 4 millionaire businessmen willing to underwrite the Force, Own the Force on track to raise $8 million, a 4 year naming rights sponsor worth $6 million and a privately funded academy are all examples of financial sustainability.
Having a private owner willing to underwrite the Rebels for the 20 year duration of his license is another example of financial sustainability.
Selling a piece of real estate and burning through the cash, no naming rights sponsor, 9 straight years of losses and living on past glories does not address financial sustainability.
Moving the Brumbies to a more lucrative market would give the Brumbies financial sustainability.

All of those things may be true but I can't see how this is going to suddenly flip the discussion on its head and put the Brumbies on the chopping block.

Let's hope there is some sort of Christmas miracle and all five teams end up being retained (and the money promised comes to fruition) but it seems highly doubtful at this point and would need SARU to renege on dropping teams.

If the Brumbies were genuinely on notice that they could be cut, I am sure we would see a bunch of similar promises private money and big name supporters coming in to help save the team.

 

[NTT]

So parochial. Can't you see that I, someone who's never been on the ground at a rugby game in Perth, knows more about this than you?

Force should join with the Reds to form the North-Western Reds. It makes perfect sense, it's a quick plane ride, it'd fix the Perth pathway (which is already mostly Queenslanders, right?), and they'd have a much bigger catchment area.

Or, maybe you see the irony I'm trying to tease out. Probably not though, if past behavior is a prediction of future behavior.

Australian rugby could have a real opportunity here to rebuild itself stronger than before. Thats what i am saying. I've always supported the retention of 5 franchises. Trying to divide me along state lines is fine with me as it only serves the purpose of cheap insults and snyde remarks, please continue this, i enjoy the flailing attempt to get under my skin whilst at no point are you establishing a credible argument that addresses the issues facing Australian rugbys future. The future is about financial sustainability. This is what im posting about.

 

[amirite]

Australian rugby could have a real opportunity here to rebuild itself stronger than before. Thats what i am saying. I've always supported the retention of 5 franchises. Trying to divide me along state lines is fine with me as it only serves the purpose of cheap insults and snyde remarks, please continue this, i enjoy the flailing attempt to get under my skin whilst at no point are you establishing a credible argument that addresses the issues facing Australian rugbys future. The future is about financial sustainability. This is what im posting about.

Excellent strategy. Simultaneously tell me I'm making a bad point and nothing I've said is credible whilst not saying why. The Autocrats of the world would be proud.

Sadly, you're on a forum where people discuss stuff and multiple people think your ideas are similarly questionable.

 

[Killer]

imo if the Brumbies are back in the mix? they have already won or lost the battle with the WF. I would say lost because of grassroots, money and what seems a lack of support from Sydney.

They would be best trying to deal with the Rebels whom also seem to have little support from the greater rugby community. Argue along the lines that it would almost be impossible to re estb a team in Canberra in the future, where as Melb this could be done much easier down the track. Also my guess would be that the ARU would like to remove priv ownership in Melb and Mr Cox is approachable bc from here he will be reaching deep into his own pocket. Tho as it stands I think the Rebels still look stronger?

ARU & SANZAR should just keep all 5 with clear financial/handout rules and see what happens by 2020. Tough situation.

 

[swingpass]

i except the caveat Amirite, and may have drawn a long bow, except these were two separate lunches, some time apart and the answers to the question posed, can you see Brumbies franchise moving to Melbourne, was almost identical in both cases. the VRU were certainly in favour if a stand alone Super team in Melbourne was not forthcoming.

 

[Braveheart81]

ARU & SANZAR should just keep all 5 with clear financial/handout rules and see what happens by 2020. Tough situation.

I think we are past this point though.

It would take some pretty dramatic backflips for an 18 team competition for 2018 to be an option again.

 

[NTT]

All of those things may be true but I can't see how this is going to suddenly flip the discussion on its head and put the Brumbies on the chopping block.

Let's hope there is some sort of Christmas miracle and all five teams end up being retained (and the money promised comes to fruition) but it seems highly doubtful at this point and would need SARU to renege on dropping teams.

If the Brumbies were genuinely on notice that they could be cut, I am sure we would see a bunch of similar promises private money and big name supporters coming in to help save the team.

Thats the thing, without a concrete set of criteria in place, speculation will reign. It also opens the situation up to legal challenges. These legal challenges could flip the situation on its head at any moment. That brings an all new spectrum of uncertainty. As i said though, im basing my posts on available information that relate to the only criteria mentioned by the ARU, financial sustainability. Im posting from the viewpoint that there could be the potential windfall to Australian rugby if one of many scenarios plays out. If the future of Australian rugby does not include the Force then that does not guarantee the financial sustainability of the remaining franchises. Whatever happens, Australian rugby must be left better off than it currently is or this situation will repeat itself.There is still much water to flow under the bridge still.

 

[amirite]

i except the caveat Amirite, and may have drawn a long bow, except these were two separate lunches, some time apart and the answers to the question posed, can you see Brumbies franchise moving to Melbourne, was almost identical in both cases. the VRU were certainly in favour if a stand alone Super team in Melbourne was not forthcoming.

Fair enough, obviously I wasn't there.

It would have been an interesting alternate timeline. I certainly think the VRU would've been for it, but I just doubt the Brumbies would've been and the ACTRU even more so.

 

[Killer]

I think we are past this point though.

It would take some pretty dramatic backflips for an 18 team competition for 2018 to be an option again.

depends on SA I guess, they are all happy campers atm until someone feels they are being ganged up on eg the WF scenario

 

[A mutterer]

least the aru has done something positive in supporting and uniting the fan base



by making themselves the common enemy

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

depends on SA I guess, they are all happy campers atm until someone feels they are being ganged up on eg the WF scenario

Yep. I cannot see any of them being terribly willing to be relegated from Super Rugby to this new competition they are suggesting. At present going from performance both on and off the pitch both the Kings and Bulls look vulnerable. The Kings I could see going but the Bulls will fight a bloody war to stay I would imagine.

Frankly, I think the Kings should be cut from SA and the Jaguares moved into their conference. Move the Sunwolves into ours and if the Wild Knights are in fact keen let them enter. Push the JRFU to relax their foreign player rules as a means of building competitiveness of these two squads. The Wild Knoghts could then play in the NZ conference.

 

[Rebels3]

I would be surprised if the WF aren't safe now. Aside from their desperation to stay in the competition and the rugby reasons. It seems they have plenty of money now and massive support both locally and nationally especially in Sydney.
The 2 wildcards in the whole scenario are, for mine, what are Mr Cox's intentions ref personal investment in the Rebels and if there is a Foxtel component we are unaware of.
As The Honey Badger said it's looking more and more like a stalemate?

The dastardly Mr.Cox scheming the demise of a franchise!

No one in their right mind invests in sport, especially in Australia to make money.

If the ARU can see around the Force's injunction it will be the Force that goes. If not then it will be a stalemate. The Brumbies are not going anywhere. Its a shit situation, a sad situation and an unfair situation but that's whats looking most likely.

ARU will be looking to reconfigure the current deal, using specific wording that eliminates either the legal plights of the Force or a portion of the legal plight of the Rebels.

Time for a decision or at least an indication on how things will end up.

 

[daz]

I've read with interest all the posts on the "Rebels/Force/Where to" forums, and along with the info that I've read in the newspapers, I have deduced the following:

1. Super Rugby is going to 15 teams in 2018, end of story.
2. If Mr Cox chooses to sell his Super Rugby licence, the Rebels are gonski.
3. If Mr Cox chooses to keep his Super Rugby licence, the Force are gonski.
4. The Brumbies are clearly no longer part of the "cut or chop" discussions.
5. Everything else is just whispers in the breeze and fan speculation.

I think that about covers it, ladies and gents. Did I miss anything?

 

[Killer]

I've read with interest all the posts on the "Rebels/Force/Where to" forums, and along with the info that I've read in the newspapers, I have deduced the following:

1. Super Rugby is going to 15 teams in 2018, end of story.
2. If Mr Cox chooses to sell his Super Rugby licence, the Rebels are gonski.
3. If Mr Cox chooses to keep his Super Rugby licence, the Force are gonski.
4. The Brumbies are clearly no longer part of the "cut or chop" discussions.
5. Everything else is just whispers in the breeze and fan speculation.

I think that about covers it, ladies and gents. Did I miss anything?

I think you are ignoring the WF alliance conditions, imo every bit as strong as the Rebels contractually until 2020 at least.

 

[daz]

I think you are ignoring the WF alliance conditions, imo every bit as strong as the Rebels contractually until 2020 at least.

Yes, I understand there are all other bits of lawyery words on paper that will need addressing, but I have have heard nothing from the ARU to say anything else is a deal-breaker yet. Regardless of your or anyone else's opinion.

It may well turn out to be a thing, but as of right now, it is just noise.

 

[USARugger]

Now there's a name I haven't seen in a long time.. welcome back Daz :^)

 

[Twoilms]

If the ARU can see around the Force's injunction it will be the Force that goes. If not then it will be a stalemate. The Brumbies are not going anywhere. Its a shit situation, a sad situation and an unfair situation but that's whats looking most likely.

An injunction is a temporary stay on an an administrative process to allow time for another legal issue to be heard by a court and ruled on. The legal issue will presumably be whether or not the ARU are legally allowed to sever their ties with the Force. The injunction itself is not the issue.

In other words, the Force will be cut if the ARU can establish they are contractually within their rights to do so. I'd be blown away if it was ruled that they aren't.

Good money is (tragically) on the Force being cut after a protracted legal battle costing everyone a bunch of money.

The only interesting thing left is whether the Force can eek out another season, depending on the length of their legal battle. The progress of the South African cuts will also affect this. SANZAAR haven't timed this particularly well. Neither SARU nor the ARU have much time to remove a team.

We could conceivably have another entire season of this ridiculous 18 team conference system with three doomed teams still required to field teams.

 

[Rebels3]

I've read with interest all the posts on the "Rebels/Force/Where to" forums, and along with the info that I've read in the newspapers, I have deduced the following:

1. Super Rugby is going to 15 teams in 2018, end of story.
2. If Mr Cox chooses to sell his Super Rugby licence, the Rebels are gonski.
3. If Mr Cox chooses to keep his Super Rugby licence, the Force are gonski.
4. The Brumbies are clearly no longer part of the "cut or chop" discussions.
5. Everything else is just whispers in the breeze and fan speculation.

I think that about covers it, ladies and gents. Did I miss anything?

Perfectly summarized

So far today iv read (in very short)

- Private ownership is terrible, we need to pay Cox out to get rid of the Rebels
- Private ownership is awesome, millionaire businessmen wanting to invest in the Force for the betterment of the game
- Canberra to Melbourne is a short drive away, maybe the players can live in Albury and commute one day to Melbourne, one day to Canberra
- Keeping 5 teams is financially stable (minus $28million)
- Crowds of around 7-9 thousand people is massive support (this goes for all teams)
- It's ok for Canberra to accept a compromise
- It's ok for Melbourne to accept a compromise
- It's not ok for Perth to accept a compromise
- Brumbies catchment area to encompass all areas not within North Korean missile reach

Guys (and ladies) lets all live in the real world. I was a massive fan of 5 teams, then i read the annual report, not the front but the back financial statements.
Our teams have horrendous crowds, Rebels 7500 on Saturday, Force (in an almost do or die situation) 8000, Brumbies have dropped below 10000 a few times this year, and the Reds 11000 on Saturday.............11000.

As shit as it is, we cannot all have cake and eat it. Not saying the situation should of ever got to this, as there is no reason why Australia shouldn't have the money, resources of players to have 5 fully functioning professional teams, but the situation is what it is.

I completely agree, they have all 'correctly' decided a 15 team comp is what it will be. Even tho they built this mess, its the right decision right now. The decision is going to be 2 of the 3

- Australia's best performing team
- A state where we could legitimately be no.2
- A state which could supply resources and players that could make us wealthy/player depth.

There's no wrong answer.

Just pick 2 and the other will suffer. Obviously i am very biased to the Rebels, but i recognise the other teams have strengths in their arguments as well. Generally where one has a strength, it's the others weakness and vise versa, which is what makes this hard. But lets try live in the real world.