Where to for Super Rugby?

[BLR]

Possibly a dumb question, but are we rebuilding relevance within the market in the ugliest way possible? I have never seen so much media coverage of the game, despite how shit the content being covered is.

I kind of have a suspicion about this actually, the West already has a siege mentality, this is just bringing it to fever pitch.

 

[Twoilms]

Possibly a dumb question, but are we rebuilding relevance within the market in the ugliest way possible? I have never seen so much media coverage of the game, despite how shit the content being covered is.

Except half the people are screaming that they will never support Rugby again because the team they've grown to love will be cut, or because the ARU are fucking up the game regardless.

No i don't think so.

 

[RedsHappy]

I've stayed out of this until I've calmed down but that's just not happening. I've never believed the bullshit line that we don't have the players. That's simply not true, what we do have is a skilled coaching shortage.
I'm angry at the ARU for rolling over but I'm angrier with SANZAAR for going into a second year with a format that was obviously not working. It would have been a couple of hours work to re-gig 2017 into a three conference system but like a bunch of ego-maniacal fucktards they stayed on course towards the predictable result.

But I'm angriest at the SARU because this was their idea! They were the ones who threatened to walk if they didn't get their sixth team. Then threatened again until they got two conferences.

So while I feel for the fans of the teams they cut I have no sympathy for the body who I believe fucked Super Rugby.

At any time in that S18 formulation process, whatever SARU said or banged the table over, the ARU could have said 'this will kill rugby in Australia if it proceeds, we categorically veto it until a proposal is found that meaningfully equates to the survival and prosperity of rugby in Australia'.

History shows they did no such thing.

History shows the ARU was entranced by the extra short-term media income then on offer, and, yet again in a long history of serious strategic mistakes, neglected to consider how the new S18 format would likely denude and damage the quality of games and teams playing the game in Australia. They were in their corporate psyche short-term money oriented, not strategically oriented at all in terms of the one thing that really matters: the consistent quality of professional rugby presented to fans, and not in any way the quantity of it.

When the S18 was announced, the ARU revelled in both self- and SANZAAR-related praise over what a wonderful deal it all was, great for fans, global rugby, $ income etc. They portrayed a cadence of being thrilled over the whole 'S18 breakthrough'.

Laying the blame on SARU is the soft option which does not get to the heart of the matter, namely the entire episode is proof-point #116, if more were needed, that Australian rugby is extraordinarily poorly run and governed.

 

[Dave Beat]

Is the ARU paying for the Forces legal expenses in their fight against the ARU?
i think it is unfair any team is dropped because of the ARU failings.

 

[Slim 293]

I have no doubt, but an anecdote does not make for a happy supporter base.

You'll find most of those supporters (and the Fitzroy ones) have moved on.

Nah, there's still a healty Bloods fan base down south........

In fact, I believe that roughly a third of their members are based in Melbourne with the largest grouping still in South Melbourne.

 

[The Honey Badger]

Here is the thing.

The nub of the issue is falling revenue from TV and attendance.

If revenue was growing, there would be none of this talk. It would already be a Super 20 or Super 24. No one would care most of these new sides will ever see a trophy. (Did anyone say Cronulla should get the chop from NRL?). It's only because the games ceases to be profitable that causes change.

The Jewel in the Southern hemisphere sporting crown is the Melbourne market.

This is why the axe will fall on the force.

So what ever they do should be about getting a product that will grow the game profitably. To me Melbourne is central to that.

But I remain in the Stronger as five camp.

 

[TOCC]

At any time in that S18 formulation process, whatever SARU said or banged the table over, the ARU could have said 'this will kill rugby in Australia if it proceeds, we categorically veto it until a proposal is found that meaningfully equates to the survival and prosperity of rugby in Australia'.

History shows they did no such thing.

History shows the ARU was entranced by the extra short-term media income then on offer, and, yet again in a long history of serious strategic mistakes, neglected to consider how the new S18 format would likely denude and damage the quality of games and teams playing the game in Australia. They were in their corporate psyche short-term money oriented, not strategically oriented at all in terms of the one thing that really matters: the consistent quality of professional rugby presented to fans, and not in any way the quantity of it.

When the S18 was announced, the ARU revelled in both self- and SANZAAR-related praise over what a wonderful deal it all was, great for fans, global rugby, $ income etc. They portrayed a cadence of being thrilled over the whole 'S18 breakthrough'.

Laying the blame on SARU is the soft option which does not get to the heart of the matter, namely the entire episode is proof-point #116, if more were needed, that Australian rugby is extraordinarily poorly run and governed.

And... SANZAAR require unanimous voting from its members, so the ARU shave agreed to all the changes and decisions which have lead to this absolute debacle of a situation. ARU are the custodians of rugby union in this country, and they've failed the fans, players and stakeholders.

 

[RedsHappy]

Just btw: a neglected fact that arises from a possible decision to cull the Force is that the ARU will totally kiss goodbye to the c.$4,000,000 it has only very recently spent baling them out. Up in smoke, all of it.

No one seems to notice or care about that, after all, it's only a fraction of the ARU's annual corporate overhead.

Let's assume a reasonable specialist middle-level competent rugby coach from NZ or maybe UK would cost, what, c. $150,000 pa.

$4m totally wasted within just the space of 12-15 months equates to say about 13 full-time rugby coaches on 2 year contracts applied to any number of levels of rugby organisations/teams within the Australian rugby system.

And that, or something like it and even more of it, is what our rugby skills base in this country desperately needs.

 

[RedsHappy]

Here is the thing.

The nub of the issue is falling revenue from TV and attendance.

........

Nope, the real issue is - why has that occurred, and why does it continue to occur, and what has brought that condition about.

 

[Quick Hands]

Just btw: a neglected fact that arises from a possible decision to cull the Force is that the ARU will totally kiss goodbye to the c.$4,000,000 it has only very recently spent baling them out. Up in smoke, all of it.

No one seems to notice or care about that, after all, it's only a fraction of the ARU's annual corporate overhead.

Let's assume a reasonable specialist middle-level competent rugby coach from NZ or maybe UK would cost, what, c. $150,000 pa.

$4m totally wasted within just the space of 12-15 months equates to say about 13 full-time rugby coaches on 2 year contracts applied to any number of levels of rugby organisations/teams within the Australian rugby system.

And that, or something like it and even more of it, is what our rugby skills base in this country desperately needs.

It simply blows the mind that apparently the ARU knew as far back as 2011 that running 5 teams was unsustainable (their opinions, not necessarily mine) and yet we have seen them plough millions into both the Force and the Rebels "knowing" that the money was being thrown away. This is their spin.

If they truly thought this, it beggars belief that an organisation so short of money can spend money on this scale when they believe it to be unsustainable.

 

[Teh Other Dave]

Just btw: a neglected fact that arises from a possible decision to cull the Force is that the ARU will totally kiss goodbye to the c.$4,000,000 it has only very recently spent baling them out. Up in smoke, all of it.

As I've made quite clear, I think axing one of the teams is a short sighted decision. But that money is what an economist would call a sunk cost.

 

[RedsHappy]

As I've made quite clear, I think axing one of the teams is a short sighted decision. But that money is what an economist would call a sunk cost.

That improves the 'look and feel' of 'pissing $4m bucks up against the wall' does it?

 

[Teh Other Dave]

No, the word 'sunk' has a fairly negative connotation. It means the money is already gone, it cannot be reclaimed; it shouldn't be taken into consideration of any future decision.

 

[Twoilms]

Here is the thing.

The nub of the issue is falling revenue from TV and attendance.

If revenue was growing, there would be none of this talk. It would already be a Super 20 or Super 24. No one would care most of these new sides will ever see a trophy. (Did anyone say Cronulla should get the chop from NRL?). It's only because the games ceases to be profitable that causes change.

The Jewel in the Southern hemisphere sporting crown is the Melbourne market.

This is why the axe will fall on the force.

So what ever they do should be about getting a product that will grow the game profitably. To me Melbourne is central to that.

But I remain in the Stronger as five camp.

Why is it the Jewel when it's so inaccessible. I'm sure market analysis would comfortably establish the realistic market share available in the next 10-20 years would be negligible, which has already been demonstrated over the past 7.

It's like opening a Butchers in India. Hindu's don't eat meat.

 

[Gnostic]

The ARU make mistakes. Arguably a lot of them. But, plenty of sporting codes have governing bodies with serious corruption issues.



Perspective is a good thing.

You've never seen real institutional corruption have you? Many things look much like "mistakes" but were intentional steps.

At the very least an extremely strong case can be made for incompetence, if not neglect of their duties.

 

[Rebels3]

Why is it the Jewel when it's so inaccessible. I'm sure market analysis would comfortably establish the realistic market share available in the next 10-20 years would be negligible, which has already been demonstrated over the past 7.

It's like opening a Butchers in India. Hindu's don't eat meat.

You do realize Victorian participation numbers in rugby has gone up 38%. As for afl, it's as fanatically supported in the west as it is down here in Mexico.

 

[Slim 293]

But rugby currently sits a distant fourth in the battle of the codes in Melbourne........

If the Rebels remain they're going to have to do a lot of work to gain some public interest.

 

[Melchior]

This is baseless. There'll be a new broadcast deal and if it follows the trend of every other broadcast deal, it will be worth more than the one before.

What else can Foxtel do to beat Netflix outside of purchasing sporting content?

Why would it automatically follow that there would be an increase in revenue from broadcast rights? particularly in Australia?

Pay tv has reached market saturation. Everyone who wants it has it. Now there will be one less aussie team and less interest from Australians in general re rugby, which means declining incomes from rugby for the broadcaster and presumably a flow on effect to the ARU coffers. Argentina and Japan are already part of the current deal, are the ARU taking to the bank some sort of exponential growth in those markets to offset the loss in domestic demand?

The ARU's cash cow the wallabies are also in a mess, the ARU for years have ignored the grassroots and done nothing to correct the slide in both junior numbers and development, betting the farm on ex-league mercenaries to keep the wallabies winning. Their silly graphs they handed out at the presser as their justification for boning an aussie super rugby team shows this to be wrong. As usual the ARU has everything arse about.

 

[Forcefield]

God. If I wasn't already resigned to the fact that the Force are goners and anything but is a bonus, I would be tearing my hair out about the numbskullery of the situation.

Pulver is going full Trump on this one.

 

[RedsHappy]

The below is an extract (my emphasis added in bold) from a GeoRob article in the SMH Online tonight.

If all or most of it is even vaguely true, it beggars belief as to how the ARU has gotten itself into such a ridiculously exposed situation with the Rebels/Vic Govt, a team that was deemed to be 'fully privatised and thus with removed risks to the ARU' as was declared publicly to the rugby community back in 2015.

I mean, exposures in 2025 FFS to Bled events and such like that, on the way things are going for Aus rugby at present, are likely to be attended by a highly diminished number of patrons at best.

Again, if true, this article confirms that the central reason the Rebels will be preserved has little to do with genuine strategic and commercial risk-reward assessment and objective business merit, but rather centres upon exceedingly poor contractual and guarantee arrangements that (a) the ARU has hitherto hidden from public view and (b) are so large and financially damaging that they cannot be cash afforded if triggered.

.............."In contrast to what ARU chairman Cameron Clyne said during Monday's hour-long media explainer in Sydney about the decision between the Force and Rebels being an open race, RugbyWA representatives described being presented with a fait accompli at a meeting with ARU chief operating officer Rob Clarke and chief financial officer Todd Day that ran to three-and-a-half hours in Perth on Monday. ​

​

Geoff Stooke, the Perth-based independent director on the ARU board who offered the only resistance to the four-team decision on Sunday, hinted at the problem on Monday morning, stopping short of calling into question the integrity of the process but saying he was "uncomfortable" with how it was playing out. ​

​

RugbyWA sources said Clarke and Day arrived in Perth armed with a detailed breakdown of why the Force - their alliance partner - should be axed ahead of the Rebels, much of it centring around the risk of cutting the Melbourne club posed to a heads of agreement the ARU had entered into with the Victorian Government to host a suite of Bledisloe Cup Tests and a British and Irish Lions Test in 2025.​

​

"What they wanted to present was that the ARU is not in a position to retain the Force, they must retain the Rebels, because the threat offered by the departure of the Rebels was overwhelming," the source said. ​

​

"They didn't come over to talk about the alliance agreement, they came over to talk about their evaluation of their own balance sheet and how much trouble they're in." ​