You'd assume Fox would have done some sort of cost/benefit modelling on rugby though.
 
I see the arguments raised above but there has to be some data that suggests the loss of subscribers wouldn't be greater than the $$$ outlay to pay for the rights.
		
		
	 
 
That's exactly the calculus they'd now make, and much more ruthlessly than in the past (ie, 2015 and prior). They have exited the hubris and extravagance phase, and entered the survival one.
 
Plus Barb: Foxtel's cost base just 
begins with the raw rights' costs paid to RA. Then they have all-of-season production (management and on-field), commentariat, transmission, insurances, costs etc. There are bandwidth costs for Foxtel Now and Kayo.
 
Finally, their goal in the 2020 Foxtel realities has to be: make a profit on rugby, not just cover costs. Otherwise, why bother.
 
My guess is today they would want this: (1) Foxtel's total advertising-on-rugby $ income (that would not simply move to other Foxtel broadcasted codes if Foxtel lost rugby) + (2) imputed subscriber $ income directly related to rugby and that'd leave if no rugby (hard to estimate but they'd have a view on this for sure) = (3) TOTAL RUGBY INCOME minus (4) all costs noted above incl RA rights payments plus (5) a % share of Foxtel's general HQ costs = (6) 'Rugby EBIT Profit' and where (6) has to be at least 20-25% of (3).
 
My belief is their economic interest in rugby by 2019/early 2020 declined simply because (a) they had overpaid badly for sports rights all over the place, virtually admitted so and lived to regret it financially and (b) all rugby's key Test and Super metrics were declining badly in terms of viewership, crowd sizes, advertising income, media buzz, etc.
 
[Finally, an aside: with all the Foxtel hate and pissing on them here, it's unarguable that in no way would FTA ever have paid anything like the media rights $s that Foxtel has paid RA over a long period, not even vaguely close.]