Be worth a sneaky $10 on the Force this weekend.
I had a detailed text exchange with a mate and fellow Force fan on the weekend about the prospectus. I came to the conclusion through much discussion that if I do buy a share, I 95% expect it to be a lost $1000 within 3 years. But I'm still leaning more towards buying a share than not.
In the prospectus the point is clearly made, the only thing that could save the Force long term would be on field success. But the truth is that Rugby is too fringe of a sport in Australia and more so the West to turn it around in 3 years.
The real knife in the heart of 5 super teams for Australia is NZ. We are faced with an opponent whose success is unprecedented. Does a nation, in any other sport, dominate a sport so thoroughly without a numerical advantage of player pool like NZ do with Rugby? We quite simply are being overwhelmed by a vastly superior opponent. The long term damage of being uncompetitive is telling on the popularity of the game in this country and the flow on effect is that we are on a downhill slide to becoming a tier 2 nation.
As AFL becomes more entrenched in the private school system the slide will become more pronounced. The ARU squandered our chance of building a robust rugby base to build from after the success of the early 2000's. If the figures thrown around on the Rugby report card (ha, report card, cos they're school teachers, I just got it) of a 68% decline in Rugby participation since 2003 is correct, we are really screwed. We could lose a whole generation of supporters.
So if the Force was to go would I quit watching Rugby. No. I'd support all of the other Aussie teams and the Wallabies. I hope this article is bullshit, but if it's not I'm not that surprised either. It's more a matter of when and not if due to the current state of the game in this country that a franchise will go. Though I don't think it should be the Force, a Rebels/Brumbies merger makes more sense. But recognise that's a biased point of view and a compelling argument could be made to get rid of the Force as well.