Waratahs vs Hurricanes - Super Rugby 2012 Rd 15

[fatprop]

Since the season is a write off, the remaining games should be to experiment with new combinations etc...eg B Foley at 10.

What's happened to Greg Peterson? If he's fit, this would be an opportunity to give him some minutes off the bench at least.

I thought it was very telling that Stanford was preffered

 

[Bruce Ross]

Don't forget to fly Muggleton up for just one more night with the Tahs.

If the Tahs don't tighten their gradually withering defence standards,

The Tahs are certainly going to have to tighten up there defense

I think people are worrying unnecessarily. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the 'Tahs' defence when they can afford to have the best defensive midfield player in the competition on the bench or even sitting in the stands.

But hang on. He's been speared because of poor defence. Didn't you see the game against the Crusaders? So, is there now a rule of one strike and you're out? Or does that only apply to Carter? So how does his overall defensive record look compared to his team mates?

Looking at this season and last Carter has missed just 7.9% of tackles (9.0% this season)
Ashley Cooper has missed 18.1%.
Barnes has missed 18.2%.
Foley has missed 38.2%.
Halangahu has missed 27.2%.
Horne has missed 20.9%.

But he is primarily just a defensive player and this week we've chosen "attacking, dynamic players" as mentioned above. You know why we need attacking, dynamic players - they score tries and add excitement to the game.

Looking at this season and last Carter has scored 9 tries.
Ashley Cooper has scored 2
Barnes has scored 6
Foley has scored 3
Halangahu has scored 2
Horne has scored 5

But that's hardly a fair comparison. Players like Horne and Barnes have missed a lot of games through injury. Which brings me to my final point. Since his debut in 2008 Carter has missed only 1 game - repeat 1 game - through injury over four and a half seasons. He is arguably the most durable player in the Super 15 competition.

By the way, does anyone know whether he's been re-signed? I have seen no announcement.
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[Godfrey]

Keep in mind that missed tackle stats only include those you were in a position to make Bruce. I know they suit your point right now, but you could surely agree that numbers don't tell the whole story? I note, for example, that you haven't been defending McCalman's selection based on stats.

 

[Braveheart81]

I'd still be selecting Carter and move AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) back to the wing.

Tom Carter is off contract at the end of the season isn't he? It seems to point fairly strongly that he might be on the outer.

I think he adds so much to the Tahs in terms of enthusiasm (as well as his defence) that makes him a great guy to have on the field (and a pest for the opposition).

 

[fatprop]

Carter may stiffen up the defense, but the little fluidity in attack (it has looked better) that is there goes away as Carter plays his more limited game.

 

[Bruce Ross]

Keep in mind that missed tackle stats only include those you were in a position to make Bruce. I know they suit your point right now, but you could surely agree that numbers don't tell the whole story? I note, for example, that you haven't been defending McCalman's selection based on stats.

Godfrey, if there is one player who consistently maintains his position in the defensive line it is Carter. The only qualification to that is that this season he has often been moved, obviously under instruction, out to the wing to defend. What mental giant thought that was a good idea?

As for "missed tackle stats ... suit[ing my] point right now", in the case of Carter they have suited my point for four and a half years. I do "agree that numbers don't tell the whole story" but I'm also familiar with the Law of Large Numbers which essentially states that as the number of trials of a random process increases, the percentage difference between the expected and actual values goes to zero. So, if you have a sufficiently large number of observations you can have confidence in the statistics. In the present instance, when according to Fox Sports Fantasy statistics we have 652 observations of Carter attempting tackles with just 63 recorded misses we can have a very high degree of confidence that the subject is an extremely efficient defender, unless of course we have a determination to resist such a conclusion.

I am very proud of the fact that in various areas of my life I have been prepared to stand up for someone I perceive as not getting a fair go, even if as a consequence I myself become the target of abuse and ridicule. With regard to rugby I am struggling to think of a more sustained campaign of derision, mockery, hate and bile over a period of years than what has been directed at Carter. Now we find the insinuation that he dodges being in a situation where he is called upon to make a tackle. This is levelled against a player who has averaged 11.5 tackles per 80 minutes played since 2008. But of course "numbers don't tell the whole story".

Now I'm charged that I "haven't been defending McCalman's selection based on stats". Why in God's name would I be expected to do that? You pulled that one out or your arse, Godfrey.
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[RedsHappy]

It's been observed elsewhere, and indirectly to support Bruce's point, look at the huge impact the centre tackle-machine A Fainga'a has had since coming back to the Reds. AF is no attacking genius, but he does the other winning bit extraordinarily well, it's called winning by consistently reducing the opposition's points. Sort of makes mathematical sense in a game where the win is the numerical gap, not the absolute number, doesn't it? Kind of helped the Stormers along to topping the table, too.

The Reds' massively improved defence has been the absolute cornerstone of their 2012 recovery phase. Keeping the Brums and Cru tryless in away games, for example, how many sides have done that? Most of their 2012 losses have been distinguished by defensive standards dramatically below their 2011 levels.

Beware the rejection of players with very high, and sustained, defensive competence.

 

[Godfrey]

Bruce, for someone who often defends his right to lampoon and satire others I find it pretty rich that a difference of opinion on Tom Carter is "abuse and ridicule". Though I find your indignation ironic, I have to say that I never said he "dodges being in a situation where he is called upon to tackle". Being close enough due to positioning and speed is different to attitude - I agree that he makes a very large position of those tackles he is in a position to make.

My point about McCalman was simply to illustrate that your personal feelings towards Tom Carter do not make him above criticism by others (and let's face it, what I said doesn't fall into the category of "derision, mockery, hate and bile"). McCalman is another who is often criticised but has the numbers to back himself up.

 

[qwerty51]

Alcock is dropped, he is playing for Eastwood this weekend.

I don't rate Peterson at all, I think he has little to zero rugby skills and has only gotten to where he is because of size during youth teams where he stood out. However why is he on a pro contract at the Tahs if they're not going to play him? Seems like they're waiting for him to develop or something but then why is his taking up a squad spot.

He played alongside Stanford for NSW A and you'd say Stanford was a better player then.

 

[ChargerWA]

I must admit wondering to myself earlier today while lying under the house installing some plumbing, what has Tom Carter done to find himself on the outer?

I came to the conclusion, he just unfortunately plays for the Waratahs. Truthfully, if he was a Force player he would never have missed a game. Despite our dour style of attacking play, we don't come in for the same criticism the Tahs do and I suspect he is collateral damage in Foley trying to save his job due to the realisation he isn't going to do it on results, so needs to create an exciting style of play, which Carter doesn't suit.

 

[cyclopath]

Strangely, I think the Tahs will win this weekend. I can't explain it, so don't ask me to, it just came to me.
I have been drinking today, but not excessively, so it's unlikely to be delirium.

 

[qwerty51]

I'm really worried about Taylor and Savea out wide considering how poor our wide defence has been this year. I'm confident the pigs will steamroll the Canes pack though and just hope the backs hold up their end.

 

[Gnostic]

Interesting that I heard on the grape vine all the way up here in the drizzly Mid North Coast of a few disgruntled Tahs players and some unsettled souls in the squad. The rumour monger (an ex super player with the usual old boys ties to the Tahs) was not forth coming with names of course (what is the use of telling me this shit without names says I), but let us read between some lines. Also add to that rumours of players not being renewed etc etc.

As for Peterson QWERTY, you state what is the use of having him on a Pro contact and not playing him. Yes exactly. Same reason they should never have signed Vickerman or at last have made his contract pay for play. Peterson should have at least sat on the bench a few times by now. Who knows what he could have done on the actual field of play if given the chance, who knows he made have switched on and become a Hugh Pyle, Neville or Jones. If not they would have known for sure and cut him. As for "waiting to develop", that could be an issue in it self they should be taking an active interest and part of that is getting splinters from the bench.

 

[Gnostic]

Strangely, I think the Tahs will win this weekend. I can't explain it, so don't ask me to, it just came to me.
I have been drinking today, but not excessively, so it's unlikely to be delirium.

Unless you were sipping Absinthe?

 

[cyclopath]

Unless you were sipping Absinthe?

Nope. All good quality Aus and NZ wine. No wormwood to blame.
I can't say it's a confident prediction, but there you go.

 

[Jiggles]

The thing that has stood out for me over the last 5 games is the lack of communication within the pack in general play, which leads to a lack of cohesion and execution at the break down. The tahs seem stumped as to how to kick start momentum when in attack, and they seem to be stumped as to when and where to compete at the break down in defense, which is exacerbated when the opposition start to make the gain line.

I'm pretty indifferent to Tom Carter. I don't think he is good enough to be a Wallaby, and I don't fear his name on the team sheet as an opposition fan but he definitely was a key factor in the Waratahs defensive system for a number of years. I don't think Two Dads and Horne are communicating effectively in the defensive line as other members of the line seem to be slightly out of position all the time. This rarely happened when you heard Carter's voice out there.

 

[FrankLind]

A lot in NZ have big raps on the Hurricanes halfback TJ Perenara. This game will be a good test for him because there is no way the Hurricanes can get ascendancy over the Waratahs in the forwards. I'd like to see how he, and few of the other bright prospects, Shields, Taylor Savea, deal with a pack on the backfoot.

I'd say the Waratahs can win this by keeping it tight, kicking intelligently, and defending well.

 

[qwerty51]

Absolutely pissing down in Sydney atm, should help the Tahs a lot on the field but not off it.

Expect the Tahs to keep it tight and dominate the set pieces.

 

[rugbysmartarse]

The team in this comp that has the scariest kick return is playing the team who kicks downfield the most aimlessly. I hope it keeps bloody raining

 

[Jiggles]

A lot in NZ have big raps on the Hurricanes halfback TJ Perenara. This game will be a good test for him because there is no way the Hurricanes can get ascendancy over the Waratahs in the forwards. I'd like to see how he, and few of the other bright prospects, Shields, Taylor Savea, deal with a pack on the backfoot.

I'd say the Waratahs can win this by keeping it tight, kicking intelligently, and defending well.

I rate Perenara highly. I think he is going to be an All Black great at half. his passing is so crisp, he is intelligent and knows how to pick his moments, and he can tackle.

If the Hurricanes can work together as a pack and work the ball through the phases quickly, then they will get on top of the Tahs. the Tahs are not cohesive enough in the forwards to defend against the faster more mobile packs. That said the rain should slow the game right down.