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Waratahs v Brumbies, SFS Saturday 26 July

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BDA

Jim Lenehan (48)
This game is gonna be an absolute cracker. Even as a neutral fan i cant wait. A sold out, all aussie semi-final is great news for aussie rugby fans. I'll probably be supporting the tahs because i think they've been the best team to watch this year.

Some interesting match ups over the park. As much as i'm not really a mogg fan, it's fair to say he has got the better of Folau in their two earlier meetings this year. Set piece will be crucial for the tahs. The Brumbies will look to dominate the set piece.
 

Brumby Runner

Jason Little (69)
You forgot: "My Dad is bigger than your Dad!"

Coherent thought is hard to come by, because each group of fans believe its players are inherently superior. From my point of view, if you're looking at the likely starting XV:

Robinson v Sio - Brumbies
TPN v Mann-Rea - Waratahs
Kepu v Alexander - Waratahs
Potgeiter v Carter - even
Douglas v Power - Waratahs
Hoiles v Fardy - Brumbies
Hooper v Butler - Waratahs
Palu v Mowen - even (offer different styles)
Phipps v White - even
Foley v To'omua - Brumbies
Horne v Coleman - Waratahs (suspect it will be Tomane this week though)
Beale v Lealiifano - Waratahs
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) v Kuridrani - Waratahs
Alofa v Speight - Brumbies
Folau v Mogg - Waratahs

Individual players aren't necessarily going to decide this though. You'd have to say right now that the Brumbies are ascendant at the set piece, having disrupted the Chiefs early on last night, particularly the lineout. You can basically dismiss most of the wobbles the Tahs had against the Reds - two weeks to fix that when they only need one or two sessions to be a bit smarter and quicker about their delivery.

Scrum should be fairly even - the side feeding is going to be under a lot of pressure particularly if Carter recovers from his ankle injury and Potgeiter starts (as I think he will).

While the Brumbies were limited through injury when they last played in Sydney, their key failing was their default option at the breakdown: killing the ball.Last night they really should have had another guy in the bin after Aki's try, but Joubers is a ref who tends to think a try conceded is enough. That could have really turned the game for the visitors but is history now.

With To'omua back at 10, they'll run much more than they did last time, but a few points in the game White resorted to kicking and didn't get it even close to right.

The problem the Chiefs had was only 6 fit forwards on the park - having two props who get easily tired on defence really cost them, especially as they couldn't get the ball for long stretches. When they DID attack with it, they were in constant danger of being turned over because those two blokes couldn't hack the pace.

The Waratahs suffer neither of these issues. The current hardness Cheika has drilled into this team will ensure they can play the full 80 and the replacements are similarly fit. The defence they boast is a result in part of their attack wearing the opposition out, but I hold no fears that they can scramble even if the Brumbies look likely to bust the game open early.

Goalkicking appears to be a bit of a lottery for Lilo at the moment, while Foley is striking them fairly well, but has limited range.

Though, let's be realistic: both these teams will try to score tries if the conditions allow, and crush their opponent through pressure mounting on the scoreboard, not a sniper-like ability for one of them to put it over from halfway.

The key moments could come down to injuries: without To'omua or Speight, the Brumbies backline has been a bit rough behind a grafting forward pack. Similarly without TPN or Hooper, the Tahs have two players who are key in the mix, while Palu's go-forward is also a prime weapon for gain line ball (though this can be mitigated by Potgeiter et al).

For me, the biggest surprise about last night was how well Murphy threw lineouts when he came on, though I feel the Chiefs missed a trick by not putting more pressure on him. He was bloody awful against the Tahs a few weeks back but worth re-assessing now as a solid backup to Mann-Rea.

And until the ref is appointed, I reckon that's all there is worth saying.

Hard to find much fault with what you've said here, except that I would rate White as superior to Phipps, and I don't particularly agree with your continued complaining about the Brumbies game approach. Getting a bit tired and worn out imo. Up to the refs to take action if anyone from either team is not playing according to the laws.

Brumbies will give it their alll as they mostly do, but still think this is the Waratahs year.
 

mst

Peter Johnson (47)
I wonder how Power is, he came off with a head knock. Carter did not look all that wonderful either, with the ankle strapping.

The Tahs forwards are going to have to earn this, the backs might get the glory, but the pigs will win it. Or lose it.


My prediction: Hooper to absolutely dominate the game. The Bumblies just do not have a legal counter to top-class pilferers like Hooper.

Isn't Hooper a winger or a back? I am pretty sure that recently I saw on this site criticism about the lack of pilfers he gets. I believe, if I recall correctly, and I am happy to be corrected, but Gill got more pilfers in half a game. But is saying that what he does around the field makes up for the lack of pilfers.

As for Carters ankle, from a quick chat after the game he believed it was ok and didn't seem to distressed by it. He suggested the ankle management plan was "just keep picking and driving!" There was a fleeting moment of man love when he said those words!:rolleyes:

Not Sure about Power, but Moggy suffered after his head knock, but said it was improving post game and he seemed ok other than having a bad headache.

Personally I don't care who is better than who, and if Phitzy's dads is bigger than mine as I think both teams are evenly matched as the collective players are what makes each of the teams and has got then to where they are. So I cant wait to see which TEAM collectivity can hold it together, adapts as necessary and gets the win, It gunna be a war, and a great one to watch.
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
The Brumbies played good rugby to beat the Chiefs. There's no doubt that some games this year have been very JakeBallesque and hard to watch but that didn't happen against the Chiefs and doesn't happen every week.

The Brumbies are better when they play a balanced game like they did against the Chiefs. There's more territory to land your kicks if the defence has to hedge their bets between counter attack and kicking.
 

Pfitzy

Nathan Sharpe (72)
would rate White as superior to Phipps

White I think is a more rounded player, but even he was into himself after one of his kicks which was poor. It was great to see him put the box kick away and let his hands the work, though his kicking from hand is superb on the rare occasion he is required to find touch.

Phipps cops shit for his inaccurate passing but he's a bit faster than White off the deck as opposed to stand-step passing. It's critical to the Tahs' game plan and unless it's truly atrocious, doesn't affect the execution. People still think he is as bad as he was last year, but that is in no way true.

That is why I think they're even in this scenario: they complement the game plans of each team and have strengths over the other.


and I don't particularly agree with your continued complaining about the Brumbies game approach.

Not complaining. I am simply pointing out that if they wish to live by the sword they risk dying by the sword. Their approach to the ruck is valid enough because it's rugby, but with such good line speed and one-on-one defence you have to wonder why they'd bother with that risk. Is one a product of the other?

That approach has provided a marked turnaround in their results in the last two years, but is it going to get them a title? We saw what a yellow card did to both sides last night, though it coincided with prolonged possession.
 

Scrubber2050

Mark Ella (57)
I think the Brumbies pack will dominate the Tahs (bit like the Reds did a couple of weeks ago). Backlines are pretty even.

I reckon that with that constant forward pressure the Tahs pack will crack and their backs will just be not as effective.

It will be a great game. Its particularly good for Australian rugby, moving forward with thye RC around the corner. Just hope all the boys come through injury free.

Brumbies to win by a few.
 

Lindommer

Simon Poidevin (60)
Staff member
Good point, Scrubber. I sincerely hope Cheika's neglect of the pigs' set-pieces doesn't bite him on the arse come Saturday. OTH, maybe he was foxing with his lineout tactics against the Reds: appointing a novice (big Willie) as caller against a team with one of the best jumpers (Simmons) in Super Rugby. Just sayin'.
 

Scrubber2050

Mark Ella (57)
If the Tahs do get set piece dominance then they will win. If they do not they will lose. If Skelton runs on he will be targetted big time and it will be interesting to see how the big fella handles the real onslaught of pressure.

This is a huge pressure game for both teams. The one that cracks first will probably lose the contest. But uit will be a beauty.
 

Brumby Runner

Jason Little (69)
White I think is a more rounded player, but even he was into himself after one of his kicks which was poor. It was great to see him put the box kick away and let his hands the work, though his kicking from hand is superb on the rare occasion he is required to find touch.

Phipps cops shit for his inaccurate passing but he's a bit faster than White off the deck as opposed to stand-step passing. It's critical to the Tahs' game plan and unless it's truly atrocious, doesn't affect the execution. People still think he is as bad as he was last year, but that is in no way true.

That is why I think they're even in this scenario: they complement the game plans of each team and have strengths over the other.




Not complaining. I am simply pointing out that if they wish to live by the sword they risk dying by the sword. Their approach to the ruck is valid enough because it's rugby, but with such good line speed and one-on-one defence you have to wonder why they'd bother with that risk. Is one a product of the other?

That approach has provided a marked turnaround in their results in the last two years, but is it going to get them a title? We saw what a yellow card did to both sides last night, though it coincided with prolonged possession.

The "Jakeball" approach got them to the final last year and arguably would have won the title if they hadn't had to travel upwards of 35,000 km in the last three weeks leading to the fiinal. But they are playing a much more attacking style this year, part of which is the retention of going hard at the breakdown. They are still in the running and could conceivably take the title, but are definitely the outsiders/underdogs this weekend.
 

Pete King

Phil Hardcastle (33)
As an Australian Rugby fan first I hope that the Tahs prevail on Saturday night and go on to win the title. I think they have played the most expansive entertaining style all year and the game needs success in NSW. Think with two weeks under the belt the line out should be alot better.

I actually think which Bernard Foley shows up will decide the winner. If he gets a few good touches early (and strikes at goal) the tahs will win.
 

fatprop

George Gregan (70)
Staff member
If the Tahs do get set piece dominance then they will win. If they do not they will lose. If Skelton runs on he will be targetted big time and it will be interesting to see how the big fella handles the real onslaught of pressure.

This is a huge pressure game for both teams. The one that cracks first will probably lose the contest. But uit will be a beauty.

Parity will be enough

More interested on how the tahs cleanout at the breakdown, the Chiefs were just average and passive for too long and got a lot of shit ball because of it

It will be also interesting to see if Toouma continues rushing out of the line, he will make some hits, but the Tahs use that inside ball a lot more than most and he makes a nice hole for a runner as well
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
You'd hope that Foley and Beale at first receiver will give themselves that little bit of extra depth against To'omua.

If he rushed out of the line and makes tackles it is highly destructive on our game plan as was shown early in the season in Canberra.

If we can mitigate that impact, there should be space for the inside runner as fatprop said together with options outside.

The Waratahs just need to avoid shovelling pressure along the backline as they did in that match in Canberra at the start of the year. It all started with Phipps being under pressure and then hitting his first receiver as they were about to be smashed.
 

Pfitzy

Nathan Sharpe (72)
The "Jakeball" approach got them to the final last year and arguably would have won the title if they hadn't had to travel upwards of 35,000 km in the last three weeks leading to the fiinal.


No doubt at all - they had that game but faded due to the demands of the travel.

But look at it this way: in 2013 they scored 5 Bonus Points via tries out of their 10 wins and 2 draws. One of those draws was in Canberra against the Kings, who were smashed by most top sides.

Jakeball got them into the finals, but it prevented them getting top two, and this being subject to the whims of the travel beast. It has happened for the Sharks this year too. Coincidence? Nup.


But they are playing a much more attacking style this year, part of which is the retention of going hard at the breakdown. They are still in the running and could conceivably take the title, but are definitely the outsiders/underdogs this weekend.


Agreed that they've had some games where they have shredded the opposition, but they have also been knocked off their game by teams willing to hang onto the ball and let the Ponies rack up penalties and cards.
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
Just in case anyone's wondering what to wear or what their team will look like...

BtB9_EKIMAEULI_.jpg


Pretty random announcement from SANZAR.

Referee appointments out at 3pm today (Sydney time).
 

Marcelo

Ken Catchpole (46)
As an Australian Rugby fan first I hope that the Tahs prevail on Saturday night and go on to win the title. I think they have played the most expansive entertaining style all year and the game needs success in NSW. Think with two weeks under the belt the line out should be alot better.

I actually think which Bernard Foley shows up will decide the winner. If he gets a few good touches early (and strikes at goal) the tahs will win.

I think like you. If the Tahs can become the new super rugby champion would be a big boost for rugby in Australia. First, because Sydney is the largest city and second a full ANZ stadium in the final match would be great publicity for our sport in Australia, many children will be interested in playing Rugby Union.

Since the WC 2003 loss against England, rugby has lost too much territory in Australia in relation to the AFL and NRL, which are stronger every day
 

fatprop

George Gregan (70)
Staff member
best seats available for 2 are now upstairs bay 51, so the seats are selling well, singles only left downstairs
 
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