Waratahs v. Brumbies 2011R18

[chasmac]

Ok what do GAGR's think about this game? I need to pick this correctly to win my tipping comp so I want to ask for comment on the expected result.
I see it as a tight game, the Waratah injuries make it difficult to pick them outright, along with some Brumby form in recent weeks. This will not be a dead rubber for the brumbies who would love to bring the waratahs end of season celebrations forward to the end of the comp rounds. A Waratah win puts them into the finals regardless of other results. They can finish as high as 4th which gets them a home semi final. Most likely to finish 6th but a bonus point win gives them potential upside.
Also, what are the latest team lists, I read that Vickerman might start / might fill the bench / not eligible for finals.
My current thinking is to tip the Waratahs but only because of position on the ladder and because it is their home game. Both these reasons are shaky at best with no-one truely able to call ANZ their home ground.

 

[#1 Tah]

Vicks on bench.

Full squad: Kurtley Beale, Lachie Turner, Ryan Cross, Tom Carter, Atieli Pakalani, Daniel Halangahu, Luke Burgess, Dave Dennis, Phil Waugh (capt), Dean Mumm, Sitaleki Timani, Pat O'Connor, Al Baxter, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson. Res: John Ulugia, Jeremy Tilse, Dan Vickerman, Chris Alcock, Hugh Perrett, Josh Holmes, Sosene Anesi.

 

[Ash]

Kane Douglas dropped?

 

[qwerty51]

No, suspended still.

 

[Blue]

Dennis at 8. Interesting.

 

[Ruggo]

Replace O'Connor with Vickerman and that is a bloody mean forward pack.

 

[Ash]

With Palu and Mowen injured, the Tahs are short of options at 8 and 6 - which is why Dennis is at 8 and Mumm at 6, with Perrett on the bench. I am not convinced on that back row for the Tahs, personally, it looks a lot weaker with Mumm at 6 rather than lock. But with the injuries the Tahs have, there's not a lot that they can do.

I am actually worried the Tahs won't pull this one off, simply because the Brumbies will lift like they did vs the Reds, and the Tahs have too many injuries and too many carrying injuries, and too many not in form. Beale will need another blinder.

 

[qwerty51]

I dunno, I like Mumm at 6. Don't be fooled that he isn't mobile enough to play it because he's a lock.

 

[chasmac]

qwerty51
I dunno, I like Mumm at 6. Don't be fooled that he isn't mobile enough to play it because he's a lock.

I agree. I think Mumm is a better 6 than lock. He is very mobile.

He needs to develop better impact and get dominant tackles like Kiano or Elsom or Burger or Higgers.

 

[Hawko]

Full squad: Kurtley Beale, Lachie Turner, Ryan Cross, Tom Carter, Atieli Pakalani, Daniel Halangahu, Luke Burgess, Dave Dennis, Phil Waugh (capt), Dean Mumm, Sitaleki Timani, Pat O'Connor, Al Baxter, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson. Res: John Ulugia, Jeremy Tilse, Dan Vickerman, Chris Alcock, Hugh Perrett, Josh Holmes, Sosene Anesi

This is close to the best team the Tahs could put on the park. The great news is that TPN and Fat Cat are both listed to play, though they could drop out Friday. If they're in then the Ponies scrum without Palmer will be horsemeat and on a wet night with poor handling that just may be the ball game. I think we could have done a little better as follows:

1. It's great to see Pakalani start over Anesi.
2. I would play Holmes at 12 and Carter at 13. Cross goes to the bench. I thought Carter was very good at 13 and 12 is Holmes best position. Cross vs McCabe leaves me with a lot of bad feelings, but Carter is a great defender and Holmes is quick, and I think that combination would be closer to last weeks Barnes/Carter combo, which went very well.
3. When scrummaging I'd use Mumm at 8 and Dennis at 6 just for the extra bit of grunt.
4. I would start Vickerman. Basically he is going to run out of condition at some stage but you don't know when. If he starts you tell him to go flat out and you can just pull him when he runs out of puff. Now we don't know when to put him on.
5. I'm positively drooling at the thought of Fat Cat vs Alexander and Fuse vs Jerry.

The game is there to be won and if we take it we are still in with a chance. If we play the Blues, Reds and then Crusaders in that order and don't get any more injuries then I like our chances. Some of our wounded surely will recover by the final. Don't want to fly to SA if possible.

 

[qwerty51]

Yep I would start with Vicks too. It will be his only game and I'd rather he didn't get 20 or so minutes.

 

[Blue]

No rugby since March. No squad training. No match fitness.

HE played three games for Northampton. In the two I saw I was surprised to see how off the pace he looked.

Unless he has done some serious fitness work I think he may be a bit disappointing. I hope not. I like the bloke (not just because of his roots

 

[TheNextBigThing]

[*]When scrummaging I'd use Mumm at 8 and Dennis at 6 just for the extra bit of grunt.

I agree with everything except this. The ball will be slippery and we'll be winning tight heads, you need a genuine back-rower controlling it as it comes back. Waugh or Dennis need to pack at number 8.


A wet track. No Palmer. Bring on the infield kicking! Can't wait.

 

[Lee Grant]

I wouldn't be stressed about the individual players in the Tahs team. It is virtually based on who is available. I won't do a forensic examination until somebody tells me who missed out and was available - I've lost track.

Not to the point but watching Palu for half a game last week brought home to me how much we missed him, and will miss him. Kepu is also a huge loss: before his injury I had him shading Slipper to be the starting Oz THP. They are big losses these, and maybe bigger than we think.

I haven't seen Dennis play 8 before, or can't remember it. He's a good ball runner though and if he can pick the ball up from the base of the scrum OK, he should do well. He likes running over folks and that's an admirable attribute of a 8.

Cross coming right for this week is a good thing as it disguises the loss of Barnes, but another injury may see the pile of cards come down. I like Pakalani in for the affable Anesi. He is not the footie player that the older man is, and not overly robust, but he has that bit of zip we are missing from the injured Mitchell and Horne.

We are going to need some zip come Saturday night.

I have been quite impressed by the scrambling Hickey has done in his selections in adversity. He deserves some credit for this and, warts and all, for the content of his professional squad to make scrambling achievable.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Not to the point but watching Palu for half a game last week brought home to me how much we missed him, and will miss him. Kepu is also a huge loss: before his injury I had him shading Slipper to be the starting Oz THP. They are big losses these, and maybe bigger than we think.

Depends who consitutes "we".

Wallabies: Palu - meh, Kepu OH NO!
Waratahs: Kepu - meh, Palu OH NO!

 

[tranquility]

Unless he has done some serious fitness work I think he may be a bit disappointing. I hope not. I like the bloke (not just because of his roots

I hope it is not just because of that. You can't base a blokes rugby ability on the girls he brings home after the game.

 

[fatprop]

I thought you would see Waugh scrummaging at 8

 

[Slim 293]

Full squad: Kurtley Beale, Lachie Turner, Ryan Cross, Tom Carter, Atieli Pakalani, Daniel Halangahu, Luke Burgess, Dave Dennis, Phil Waugh (capt), Dean Mumm, Sitaleki Timani, Pat O'Connor, Al Baxter, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson. Res: John Ulugia, Jeremy Tilse, Dan Vickerman, Chris Alcock, Hugh Perrett, Josh Holmes, Sosene Anesi

This is close to the best team the Tahs could put on the park. The great news is that TPN and Fat Cat are both listed to play, though they could drop out Friday. If they're in then the Ponies scrum without Palmer will be horsemeat and on a wet night with poor handling that just may be the ball game. I think we could have done a little better as follows:

1. It's great to see Pakalani start over Anesi.
2. I would play Holmes at 12 and Carter at 13. Cross goes to the bench. I thought Carter was very good at 13 and 12 is Holmes best position. Cross vs McCabe leaves me with a lot of bad feelings, but Carter is a great defender and Holmes is quick, and I think that combination would be closer to last weeks Barnes/Carter combo, which went very well.
3. When scrummaging I'd use Mumm at 8 and Dennis at 6 just for the extra bit of grunt.
4. I would start Vickerman. Basically he is going to run out of condition at some stage but you don't know when. If he starts you tell him to go flat out and you can just pull him when he runs out of puff. Now we don't know when to put him on.
5. I'm positively drooling at the thought of Fat Cat vs Alexander and Fuse vs Jerry.

The game is there to be won and if we take it we are still in with a chance. If we play the Blues, Reds and then Crusaders in that order and don't get any more injuries then I like our chances. Some of our wounded surely will recover by the final. Don't want to fly to SA if possible.

I think the Brumbies would also like Holmes at 12 so they could run McCabe at him all night...

 

[#1 Tah]

I thought you would see Waugh scrummaging at 8

Funny, he did most of last year, but not this year.

Maybe its cause he hasnt been playing.

 

[Jnor]

No rugby since March. No squad training. No match fitness.

HE played three games for Northampton. In the two I saw I was surprised to see how off the pace he looked.

Unless he has done some serious fitness work I think he may be a bit disappointing. I hope not. I like the bloke (not just because of his roots

Gotta say I have low expectations here. I'll be very surprised (pleasantly) if we see anything other than a mediocre/invisible 20-odd minutes.