Waratahs 2014

[Torn Hammy]

These are dramatically different signings in terms of price. I believe the Tahs have room for both of them.

Using Richo's formula, TK is 42% as effective as DM, so the price might be good but is it good value.

I'm a fan of Kingston, but I feel he needs a year of grade and some quality peptides. Shouldn't be hard to find at the moment.

 

[Braveheart81]

Using Richo's formula, TK is 42% as effective as DM, so the price might be good but is it good value.

I'm a fan of Kingston, but I feel he needs a year of grade and some quality peptides. Shouldn't be hard to find at the moment.

Why does he need a year of grade? He's been getting better and better in Super Rugby.

He made a big impact when he came on last week.

The squad will be 30 players plus EPS (possibly an extra one or two as well due to 23 man squads next year).

Drew Mitchell clearly falls into the premium category of players that you'll only ever be able to afford a few of. The equation of valuing players should be such that you if you want to keep both Mitchell and Kingston, you don't pay either of them too much so that you can't afford the other one.

Then you have the question of how much it is worth paying your best player. If you pay them too much, all of a sudden you're going to have far worse players around them and as such they'll provide less value because their teammates aren't good enough to get the best out of them.

 

[Richo]

Using Richo's formula, TK is 42% as effective as DM, so the price might be good but is it good value.

I'm a fan of Kingston, but I feel he needs a year of grade and some quality peptides. Shouldn't be hard to find at the moment.

Ha. I was being very approximate.

You need to factor in a lot of things. How old are the players? How well do they fit the system? How well do they fit the need of the squad, etc.? To my mind, Kinston/Mitchell isn't an either/or proposition. They would be valued very differently and should be. Of the current outside backs, Turner is the most expendable/requiring of a rather large pay cut. He's old and probably on par with Kingston for Super Rugby impact.

A good example, IMO, of a team deciding that the price had exceeded valuation was the Reds with Higgers. It might have been tough to keep him under the cap, but they could have done so if they really, really wanted to. After his Super Rugby form last year, it would have been tempting for many organizations. But the Reds decided they could get 90% of Higgers from Ed Quirk at a fraction of the cost. Plus, they will likely be in the best position to sign Quirk to his next contract too.

As a side note, valuing players appropriately would be an excellent area for advanced statistics to assist rugby teams. I would hope that the smarter teams are building priority models to do so.

 

[Braveheart81]

As a side note, valuing players appropriately would be an excellent area for advanced statistics to assist rugby teams. I would hope that the smarter teams are building priority models to do so.

This would be really interesting and probably far more difficult than something like baseball (i.e. thinking of the moneyball concept).

In rugby you'd really have to weigh up not only someone's worth in your squad relative to other players in their position(s) but also against the other options in the country (whether they are available or not).

An average player in a position where there is little depth in Australian rugby would be worth more to a side than a good winger for example because the supply of good wingers is much higher and therefore their asking price will be lower (aside from the best couple in the country).

 

[Richo]

This would be really interesting and probably far more difficult than something like baseball (i.e. thinking of the moneyball concept).

In rugby you'd really have to weigh up not only someone's worth in your squad relative to other players in their position(s) but also against the other options in the country (whether they are available or not).

An average player in a position where there is little depth in Australian rugby would be worth more to a side than a good winger for example because the supply of good wingers is much higher and therefore their asking price will be lower (aside from the best couple in the country).

It's happening in the NFL, slowly but surely. Partly its about determining the relative value of different outcomes in different game scenarios and then looking at what value certain positions have in a team, given the overall strategic approach of the franchise. I would imagine it's even more complicated in rugby, since it's a far more fluid game in terms of shifts in possession and so on.

If I had to guess, I'd say that the first people to figure out a fair amount of this stuff will be gamblers.

 

[It is what it is]

Why does he need a year of grade? He's been getting better and better in Super Rugby.

He made a big impact when he came on last week.

The squad will be 30 players plus EPS (possibly an extra one or two as well due to 23 man squads next year).

Drew Mitchell clearly falls into the premium category of players that you'll only ever be able to afford a few of. The equation of valuing players should be such that you if you want to keep both Mitchell and Kingston, you don't pay either of them too much so that you can't afford the other one.

Then you have the question of how much it is worth paying your best player. If you pay them too much, all of a sudden you're going to have far worse players around them and as such they'll provide less value because their teammates aren't good enough to get the best out of them.

And so he should, the other players were exhausted from the heat and he runs fast.
There was space everywhere.
Wait until he plays in NZ in the cold at night when the Kiwi's aren't hot and exhausted

 

[Torn Hammy]

Why does he need a year of grade? He's been getting better and better in Super Rugby.

I have watched TK since Alo's and have always rated him. For me his best quality is the way he hits the ball at speed and runs the gap. When he does this he reminds me of a young Mortlock. Running against the grain to hit the gap requires guts as every now and then you will be smashed by a sliding defender, think Robbie Fruean for example. He doesn't bring this skill to Super Rugby. Watching Tom play a SS trial 2 weeks ago, he was a different player, as he played with so much more confidence, showing off all his talents. I don't see that confidence at SS level and if he had a year in grade I'm sure Bruce could put a few much needed kilos on him that would give him that extra strength needed at the top level. Just my thoughts though.

 

[Henry]

Beale has now been stood down indefinitely. As quite a few other posters were saying, perhaps Beale could be 'controlled' more at the Tahs under Chieka, rather than at the Rebels. Having AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) sign, hopefully Mitchell will follow suit. (his quick interview on foxsports seemed to indicate he would like to play next season) I seem to remember Mitchell and Beale used to 'room' a lot on tour. Hopefully Mitchell could continue to point the kid in the right direction.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Beale has now been stood down indefinitely. As quite a few other posters were saying, perhaps Beale could be 'controlled' more at the Tahs under Chieka, rather than at the Rebels. Having AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) sign, hopefully Mitchell will follow suit. (his quick interview on foxsports seemed to indicate he would like to play next season) I seem to remember Mitchell and Beale used to 'room' a lot on tour. Hopefully Mitchell could continue to point the kid in the right direction.

How many chances does a bloke get?

 

[Henry]

How many chances does a bloke get?

When he's as talented as Beale... 5.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

When he's as talented as Beale. 5.

Bingo.
He's gone.
Unless you mean per month.

 

[TOCC]

It would be gross negligence by the ARU to cut Beale loose and wipe their hands clean of him... The warning signs have been there for years, even in the past 12 months he has been involved in 3 alcohol related misdemeanors but the ARU/RD rushed him back into the Wallaby squad less then a week later..

Yes Beale should be held responsible, but as an employer the ARU owes It to their players to give them the support structure to overcome issues such as alcoholism or substance abuse.

I feel that obviously Beale needs to be punished for the fight, but firstly and more importantly everything needs to be done to ensure he overcomes his personal issues.

Edit... Sorry just realised this was a Tahs thread

 

[Inside Shoulder]

It would be gross negligence by the ARU to cut Beale loose and wipe their hands clean of him. The warning signs have been there for years, even in the past 12 months he has been involved in 3 alcohol related misdemeanors but the ARU/RD rushed him back into the Wallaby squad less then a week later..

Yes Beale should be held responsible, but as an employer the ARU owes It to their players to give them the support structure to overcome issues such as alcoholism or substance abuse.

I feel that obviously Beale needs to be punished for the fight, but firstly and more importantly everything needs to be done to ensure he overcomes his personal issues.

Edit. Sorry just realised this was a Tahs thread

Presumably you are speaking morally and not legally.

 

[Rob42]

Presumably you are speaking morally and not legally.

Legally? I'm sure a good lawyer could make this an OH&S issue - the employer is always responsible.

But yes, morally, the rugby community needs to give this guy some help.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Legally? I'm sure a good lawyer could make this an OH&S issue - the employer is always responsible.

But yes, morally, the rugby community needs to give this guy some help.

This guys has had a lot more "help" than most people get.
Cheika was apparently very open to KB (Kurtley Beale) coming to the Tahs at the Lloyd McDermott dinner this week but aid he knew nothing of him.
Tahs should pass and KB (Kurtley Beale) should go to Europe away from all the shithouse influences he manages to find here.

 

[mark_s]

I would love kurtley to come to the tahs, but my first preference is for him to stay with the rebels. He is a great plAyer and his problems will follow him, regardless of city or sport. Melbourne is as good a place as any to tackle them.

 

[p.Tah]

I want KB (Kurtley Beale) at the Tahs, but first I want him to sit down with ex-Swans player/coach Paul Roos. If he can get Tony Lockett and Barry Hall to sort out their shit he can help Cheika help KB (Kurtley Beale).

 

[#1 Tah]

Many of us remember when KB (Kurtley Beale) was originally at the Tahs - he was overweight and carried a lot of such "baggage" - but at the end of 09 and beginning of 2010, he managed to turn himself around and shed the fat and surround himself with a good network of family and friends. It seems ominous that as soon as he left this support structure, something like this would happen. Come home KB (Kurtley Beale), we have the people to sort you out (and I mean the good way).

Kurtley playing in Sky Blue is probably the best move for Kurtley Beale. Is it the best move for Australian Rugby? The jury's out.

 

[qwerty51]

He's surely coming back, reports are he's in Mount Druitt with family and not returning to Melbourne.

 

[cyclopath]

He's surely coming back, reports are he's in Mount Druitt with family and not returning to Melbourne.

If his contract is terminated, does that make him ineligible for the Wallabies?