Wallaby Squad Predictions 2010!

[RugbyReg]

Note that the Reds don't seem to be significantly disadvantaged by his current absence with both Byrnes (who is quietly improving) and Humphries doing the business.

The 1991 Wallabies managed to get by without Nick Farr-Jones when Peter Slattery stepped in for a couple of games, but Slats wasn't a 10th of the player NFJ was.

Kev has been fantastic this year. In fact he has been fantastic for pretty much all of his career, with last year his only real blip, possibly put down to his foot injury and desire to come back early.

 

[PhucNgo]

Note that the Reds don't seem to be significantly disadvantaged by his current absence with both Byrnes (who is quietly improving) and Humphries doing the business.

The 1991 Wallabies managed to get by without Nick Farr-Jones when Peter Slattery stepped in for a couple of games, but Slats wasn't a 10th of the player NFJ was.

Kev has been fantastic this year. In fact he has been fantastic for pretty much all of his career, with last year his only real blip, possibly put down to his foot injury and desire to come back early.

Noddy, with respect this smacks of sentimental sophistry made apparent by your circumvention of the captaincy issue.

 

[Scotty]

Morahan looked very average for most of last weeks game, he showed no urgency when working back to cover kicks the whole game.

One ball chase is not enough.

Agree with this. He was well out of position many times at fullback last week. I'm happy to have him on the wing though, he seems a better defender than Davies, and is just as quick.

 

[farva]

When is Horwill fit? Assuming he is not then:

My 22

Robinson
TPN
Alexander
Hocking
Sharpe
Elsom
Pocock
Palu

Genia
Cooper
Mitchell
Giteau
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
Ioane
Hynes

Moore
Dunning
Chisholm
Hodgson
Sheehan
JOC (James O'Connor)
Turner

With an extended squad including

Fitzpatrick
Daley/Weeks/Palmer - pick 2 (probably Daley and Palmer)
Mumm
Wykes
McCalman
Mowen
Burgess
Kingi
Morahan
Cummins
Faniifo

Thats 34, but I think it covers a strong starting 15, with good cover, and also gets some young up blokes in to develop.
I didnt pick Cross. I think AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and Ioane can offer ample coverage of 13, and at a pinch Horne could be called up if one of them was to falter. Cross unfortunately is not the best 13 we have, and is not going to develop either. He is, of course, miles ahead of Tom Carter...

 

[Bruce Ross]

Cross unfortunately is not the best 13 we have, and is not going to develop either. He is, of course, miles ahead of Tom Carter...

Yes, farva, we all know how hopeless Carter is, and this year's Super 14 is really making that obvious.

After four rounds we can look at the stats from rugbystats.com.au to compare him to the other centres playing for the four Australian franchises:

On tackles, Carter has made 28 and missed 4, a missed percentage of 14.3%. Then we have Cross 13, 2, 15.4%; Mortlock 23, 5, 17.9%; Tatupu 14, 3, 21.4%; Fainga'a 22, 6, 27.3%; Beale 16, 5, 31.3%; Lealifano 17, 6, 35.3%; Inman 13, 5, 38.5%; Turinui 13, 5, 38.5%; and Barnes 18, 9, 50%

Carter has made 27 runs for a total gain of 181 metres. Let's compare that to: Turinui 12 (157m); Lealifano 17 (125m); Cross (2 games) 10 (112m); Mortlock 18 (104m); Tatupu (2 games) 9 (81m); Beale 12 (73m); Inman (2 games) 11 (72m); Barnes 9 (55m); and Fainga'a 11 (46m)

Carter is credited with 26 ruck and maul involvements. Then come: Lealifano 18; Mortlock 16; Turinui 13; Inman 11; Beale 10; Fainga'a 9: Cross 8; Barnes 8; and Tatupu 5.

Carter is credited with 4 off-loads. Fainga'a had 2; Barnes, Turinui, Mortlock and Tatupu had one each. The rest didn't trouble the scorer.

But it is on penalties and turnovers where Carter really goes missing. He hasn't been penalised and he has had no turnovers. Among the more notable performers on these measures of excellence are Beale penalised 3 times and turning the ball over 5 times; Barnes, Lealifano and Mortlock all recorded 3 of each; Cross had 3 turnovers in two games; Turinui 3 turnovers; and Fangaa and Inman one of each.

As a broad generalisation I think we can conclude that all of the others are "miles ahead of Tom Carter". But in order to make the point more clearly let's just compare him to the bloke who plays inside him, Wallaby superstar Berrick Barnes. They have played on the same team against the same opponents.

Carter 28 tackles, missed 14.3%; Barnes 18 tackles, missed 50%.
Carter 27 runs for 181 metres; Barnes 9 runs for 55 metres.
Carter 26 ruck and maul involvements; Barnes 8.
Carter 4 off-loads: Barnes 1.
Carter no penalties; Barnes penalised 3 times.
Carter no turnovers; Barnes turned the ball over 3 times.

 

[GC]

Carter for the Wallabies!!!!

Love how he sets his wingers up. Turner and Mitchell have made the most meters in S14. Totally unpredictable too. Defense has no idea what he will do. Steps; sneaky inside passes, kicks through. Rugby genius.

 

[Godfrey]

Cross unfortunately is not the best 13 we have, and is not going to develop either. He is, of course, miles ahead of Tom Carter...

Yes, farva, we all know how hopeless Carter is, and this year's Super 14 is really making that obvious.

After four rounds we can look at the stats from rugbystats.com.au to compare him to the other centres playing for the four Australian franchises:

On tackles, Carter has made 28 and missed 4, a missed percentage of 14.3%. Then we have Cross 13, 2, 15.4%; Mortlock 23, 5, 17.9%; Tatupu 14, 3, 21.4%; Fainga'a 22, 6, 27.3%; Beale 16, 5, 31.3%; Lealifano 17, 6, 35.3%; Inman 13, 5, 38.5%; Turinui 13, 5, 38.5%; and Barnes 18, 9, 50%

Carter has made 27 runs for a total gain of 181 metres. Let's compare that to: Turinui 12 (157m); Lealifano 17 (125m); Cross (2 games) 10 (112m); Mortlock 18 (104m); Tatupu (2 games) 9 (81m); Beale 12 (73m); Inman (2 games) 11 (72m); Barnes 9 (55m); and Fainga'a 11 (46m)

Carter is credited with 26 ruck and maul involvements. Then come: Lealifano 18; Mortlock 16; Turinui 13; Inman 11; Beale 10; Fainga'a 9: Cross 8; Barnes 8; and Tatupu 5.

Carter is credited with 4 off-loads. Fainga'a had 2; Barnes, Turinui, Mortlock and Tatupu had one each. The rest didn't trouble the scorer.

But it is on penalties and turnovers where Carter really goes missing. He hasn't been penalised and he has had no turnovers. Among the more notable performers on these measures of excellence are Beale penalised 3 times and turning the ball over 5 times; Barnes, Lealifano and Mortlock all recorded 3 of each; Cross had 3 turnovers in two games; Turinui 3 turnovers; and Fangaa and Inman one of each.

As a broad generalisation I think we can conclude that all of the others are "miles ahead of Tom Carter". But in order to make the point more clearly let's just compare him to the bloke who plays inside him, Wallaby superstar Berrick Barnes. They have played on the same team against the same opponents.

Carter 28 tackles, missed 14.3%; Barnes 18 tackles, missed 50%.
Carter 27 runs for 181 metres; Barnes 9 runs for 55 metres.
Carter 26 ruck and maul involvements; Barnes 8.
Carter 4 off-loads: Barnes 1.
Carter no penalties; Barnes penalised 3 times.
Carter no turnovers; Barnes turned the ball over 3 times.

I have trouble telling your and Lee Grant's posts apart when they get this patronising.

 

[Scotty]

Don't forget the sarcasm. Wow.

Admirable effort in defending your charge, Bruce. You have made a point, and people should lay off Carter (particularly if they are talking about the likes of Cross or Turinui, who in my opinion are very similar players).

Just for the record, who do you think should be the Wallaby 13?

 

[Godfrey]

I really think AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) is better for the Wallabies at 13 than he is at 15. He was our best back last year and should really get the ball more.

 

[Bruce Ross]

Don't forget the sarcasm. Wow.

Admirable effort in defending your charge, Bruce. You have made a point, and people should lay off Carter (particularly if they are talking about the likes of Cross or Turinui, who in my opinion are very similar players).

Just for the record, who do you think should be the Wallaby 13?

I think it's going to be a difficult position to fill, Scotty. I can't see any possibility that Turinui would be in contention and I suspect that Mortlock is getting past it. I don't believe that Cross offers anything more than Carter at 13. Horne seems to be the name on everyone's lips but there are continuing doubts about his susceptibility to injury.

The other option is to move someone into 13 from another position. Ashley-Cooper would probably be the most likely candidate but he may be needed at 15. His stats for the first four games playing fullback were 13 tackles with none missed and 37 runs for a total of 350 metres. It should be remembered though that fullbacks and wingers get lots of opportunities to run kicks back and pick up cheap metres. He had 1 off-load and 2 line-breaks and figured in 34 rucks and mauls. On the downside he was penalised twice and turned the ball over 5 times.

Ioane is another possibility. From 3 games at wing he has attempted 8 tackles and missed 2 of them. He had 28 runs for 194 metres. His off-loads and line-breaks were impressive, at 5 and 4 respectively. However he was penalised once and turned the ball over 5 times.

As far as Carter is concerned, Deans and/or Nucifora showed no interest in him on the last spring tour despite calling for a succession of replacements. Whether the situation is any different now that he has shown that he can handle both 12 and 13 is unknown. Certainly he is doing more than enough at this stage to earn a place in the initial extended squad; but I have no doubt that the shrill chorus of ridicule will continue unabated whatever he does.

I had to go to a women's basketball function tonight so I haven't yet had a chance to watch the Lions game

 

[Langthorne]

Cross unfortunately is not the best 13 we have, and is not going to develop either. He is, of course, miles ahead of Tom Carter...

Yes, farva, we all know how hopeless Carter is, and this year's Super 14 is really making that obvious.

After four rounds we can look at the stats from rugbystats.com.au to compare him to the other centres playing for the four Australian franchises:

....
But it is on penalties and turnovers where Carter really goes missing. He hasn't been penalised and he has had no turnovers. Among the more notable performers on these measures of excellence are Beale penalised 3 times and turning the ball over 5 times; Barnes, Lealifano and Mortlock all recorded 3 of each; Cross had 3 turnovers in two games; Turinui 3 turnovers; and Fangaa and Inman one of each.
....

I have trouble telling your and Lee Grant's posts apart when they get this patronising.

It may be there is an element of sarcasm, but I think 'playing the ball rather than the man' would be a better response ie if you think Bruce is wrong, or the stats are misleading etc say how and why.

BTW I don't think Tom Carter is 'crap' or 'miles behind' the other 13s playing for the Aussie s14 teams (none of them is really covering himself in glory), but I also don't think he is right for that position (much better at 12 if he is to start)

A couple of things about the stats:

-other stat sites have different figures, so we can only rely on these to some extent
-Sometimes the stats don't tell the whole story (for instance one of Beale's penalties was worth 4 competition points for the Waratahs)
-I seem to recall that Mr Carter was penalised in the Lions match, so I'm afraid the unblemished record is certainly gone
-rugby being a team sport, the stats don't take into account the circumstances around each stat (player A makes a big run, but the guy who put him into the gap isn't mentioned)
-sometimes the things that can't/aren't measured are the things that make the difference (number of defenders drawn in, positional play, passing and kicking accuracy, the list goes on)
-Tom Carter is without a doubt an excellent defender

 

[DPK]

Cross unfortunately is not the best 13 we have, and is not going to develop either. He is, of course, miles ahead of Tom Carter...

Yes, farva, we all know how hopeless Carter is, and this year's Super 14 is really making that obvious.

After four rounds we can look at the stats from rugbystats.com.au to compare him to the other centres playing for the four Australian franchises:

....
But it is on penalties and turnovers where Carter really goes missing. He hasn't been penalised and he has had no turnovers. Among the more notable performers on these measures of excellence are Beale penalised 3 times and turning the ball over 5 times; Barnes, Lealifano and Mortlock all recorded 3 of each; Cross had 3 turnovers in two games; Turinui 3 turnovers; and Fangaa and Inman one of each.
....

I have trouble telling your and Lee Grant's posts apart when they get this patronising.

It may be there is an element of sarcasm, but I think 'playing the ball rather than the man' would be a better response ie if you think Bruce is wrong, or the stats are misleading etc say how and why.

BTW I don't think Tom Carter is 'crap' or 'miles behind' the other 13s playing for the Aussie s14 teams (none of them is really covering himself in glory), but I also don't think he is right for that position (much better at 12 if he is to start)..........

I agree langy. I dont think Carter is the best 13 in Australia, but i think that he is on the better side of adequate in attack and strong in defence. I havent seen him make any terrible errors, but im sure someone will prove he has made some.

Bruce's stats show that Carter's good, but i tend to think stats can make anyone look good.

 

[Godfrey]

Cross unfortunately is not the best 13 we have, and is not going to develop either. He is, of course, miles ahead of Tom Carter...

Yes, farva, we all know how hopeless Carter is, and this year's Super 14 is really making that obvious.

After four rounds we can look at the stats from rugbystats.com.au to compare him to the other centres playing for the four Australian franchises:

....
But it is on penalties and turnovers where Carter really goes missing. He hasn't been penalised and he has had no turnovers. Among the more notable performers on these measures of excellence are Beale penalised 3 times and turning the ball over 5 times; Barnes, Lealifano and Mortlock all recorded 3 of each; Cross had 3 turnovers in two games; Turinui 3 turnovers; and Fangaa and Inman one of each.
....

I have trouble telling your and Lee Grant's posts apart when they get this patronising.

It may be there is an element of sarcasm, but I think 'playing the ball rather than the man' would be a better response ie if you think Bruce is wrong, or the stats are misleading etc say how and why.

BTW I don't think Tom Carter is 'crap' or 'miles behind' the other 13s playing for the Aussie s14 teams (none of them is really covering himself in glory), but I also don't think he is right for that position (much better at 12 if he is to start)

A couple of things about the stats:

-other stat sites have different figures, so we can only rely on these to some extent
-Sometimes the stats don't tell the whole story (for instance one of Beale's penalties was worth 4 competition points for the Waratahs)
-I seem to recall that Mr Carter was penalised in the Lions match, so I'm afraid the unblemished record is certainly gone
-rugby being a team sport, the stats don't take into account the circumstances around each stat (player A makes a big run, but the guy who put him into the gap isn't mentioned)
-sometimes the things that can't/aren't measured are the things that make the difference (number of defenders drawn in, positional play, passing and kicking accuracy, the list goes on)
-Tom Carter is without a doubt an excellent defender

I understand what you're saying, however my comment wasn't really anything to do with the content of what he was saying. I don't care about Tom Carter and don't really want to look at numbers about him (or anyone because numbers are stupid and aren't as gooder as words). I was just pointing out that sometimes I read a long, patronising, know-it-all post and expect it to be from LG but sometimes it's from Bruce. He is probably right about whatever it was he was talking about though.

 

[fatprop]

The challenge with Carter and his stats is that no one would deny he has a good workrate and his quality in defence.

But his attack is just plain average, he just doesn't have that special something that makes even a quality S14 player let alone test player.

 

[Biffo]

The challenge with Carter and his stats is that no one would deny he has a good workrate and his quality in defence.

But his attack is just plain average, he just doesn't have that special something that makes even a quality S14 player let alone test player.

I agree completely. I am sure that, if someone went beyond the raw numbers to analyze the outcomes of Carter's undoubtedly enthusiastic efforts, a clear picture of an ineffective player would emerge.

 

[en_force_er]

The challenge with Carter and his stats is that no one would deny he has a good workrate and his quality in defence.

But his attack is just plain average, he just doesn't have that special something that makes even a quality S14 player let alone test player.

Agreed. Though maybe, just maybe, if he had a superstar at 12 (like maybe Gits on peak form?) he would shine. Or at least do the tough stuff whilst Gits shines?

Just a thought.

 

[Biffo]

Discussing Tom Carter in a thread predicting a Wallaby squad is digression on a scale of which Lee Grant would be hugely proud.

 

[David]

Discussing Tom Carter in a thread predicting a Wallaby squad is digression on a scale of which Lee Grant would be hugely proud.

Agreed. Stats never tell the whole story anyway.

 

[Lee Grant]

The thing is: we haven't even seen him with ball in hand much this year yet, nor any of the big hits he can do.

Lee, you must have been dozing when he stormed away for a 40m carry in either the Stormers or Bull's matches (can't recall which).

I do a bit of that to be honest these days PN but what is your excuse for not bolding the word "much" as well. I added that word deliberately in case someone jumped on me, because I remembered that Douglas run too, but my ploy didn't work. It was a great run though wasn't it? After last night there will be a few more to remember. Let's get ready to see some of the big hits he put on in the trials and for the J.Tahs.

As for the 13 imbroglio: AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) looks like the successor to Mortlock, but he is our best fullback and nobody else jumps out to demand the 15 jersey. We should wait until after the RWC before Rabbit gets another go there except from the bench. 13 and 15 are Wallaby black holes, as are 7 and 8.

So AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) has to stay at fullback for a couple of years, maybe, and we have to look at outside centres. Ioane is a possibility but he is not a good footie play defensively. He can tackle to the cows come home but he doesn't read the opponent's attacking play well - not that he is the Lone Ranger in the Wallaby backline. Park him on the wing and let him chime in and play like a 13 on attack.

The only other valid 13 candidate is Robbie Horne, provided his hammy is OK. If he is healthy I would not only pick him in the squad but also start him against Fiji. I'd pick another fullback too and have AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) on the bench. Likely 2nd stringers for the 7 and 8 black holes should be started also.

 

[Spook]

A fit Rob Horne would be damn handy and a fit Cam Sheperd would also help.

I think Pat McCabe could be a very good full back - I know he has played there at club level. Looks like a player who doesn't panic, good under the high ball, and is tall. Reminds me of Lee Byrne for Wales.