Wallaby 31 players for 2015 RWC

[Strewthcobber]

Did a quick count and the All Blacks only kicked at 67% in the last world cup - Slade and Carter both around 62%. Weeepu stood up a bit more at 76%, and Donald obviously went OK with his one attempt.

So if you're good enough, goal kicking doesn't matter too much.

We're probably not good enough though......

 

[Benaud]

The fly half (and to a lesser extent inside centre) dilemma is becoming the most interesting selection issue. I think while goal kicking is a part of that debate, the main contenders - Cooper, Foley, Gits, To'omua: are all struggling, and the outside chances - Lilo and Beale are no better. It really doesn't matter which pair you throw in - they'll all be roughly equally mediocre off the tee. It's more about what's the best combination to compensate for it.

I'm leaning towards To'omua likely getting first crack at 12 at this stage. He provides a good foil to the flamboyant guys and is the best defender. Playing Cooper and Giteau together results in a very high risk attack with a lot of lateral movement and not much go forward. It's good to have one of those guys but ultimately they need to combine well with Phipps, To'omua, Folau - which brings Foley, Beale, Lilo into contention. Absolutely NFI at this stage. The versatility of Gits and Beale probably counts against them a bit given their usefulness off the bench.

The rest of the side is starting to look settled.

Moore is already looking like an excellent captain and TPN adds some grunt to the scrum late.

The 4 top props look pretty clear cut - Kepu and Holmes to share TH duties and Slipper and Sio LH. Sio has probably earned a starting berth given his recent dominance off the bench and Slipper's injury concerns.

Simmons and Skelton are doing a good job - the lineout is arguably our strongest feature atm - and Mumm has made strong waves for that bench spot, especially given he can also cover Fardy.

Fardy and Pocock have nailed their spots on the flank, although Fardy's ankle is a concern. McCalman vs Higgers at number 8 is still open. Hooper's a certainty for the bench role when he returns from suspension so that number 8 battle is either start or out altogether.

Phipps looks the best of the halfbacks with White and Genia battling for a bench role. Tomane vs Speight will depend how Speight comes back from suspension. Kuridrani, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and Folau are painted on. The other 2 back bench spots are pretty wide open and will depend partly on who gets the gig at 10.

 

[Viking]

No new kickers are going to be brought into the squad. Lilo or JOC (James O'Connor) are an off chance. None are good enough kickers to force there way into the squad.

So the kicker will be out of Cooper or Foley - whoever starts. They are both inconsistent but both capable.

 

[daz]

Most of what I tweet is eminently forgettable.

So you think. I'm compiling a dossier for future generations, to pin-point the exact moment the human race started sliding down the far side of the intelligence bell-curve.

 

[cyclopath]

So you think. I'm compiling a dossier for future generations, to pin-point the exact moment the human race started sliding down the far side of the intelligence bell-curve.

So you can see humanity hurtling downhill towards you?

 

[Lindommer]

Cooper's attempt to play IC on Saturday highlights the importance of Leali'ifano for the RWC squad, to my eye he's running second for the 12 jumper ATM. And we simply must select and tune up another coupla props: Slipper could be headed for surgery at any moment while a reserve reserve THP's essential. Nice to see Sio and Holmes grab their opportunities and add some starch to the Oz scrum when they come on.

On another note, wasn't it nice to watch Tomane's try scored through searing speed. That's for four tries scored against the Argies by the outside backs.

 

[daz]

So you can see humanity hurtling downhill towards you?

I'm happy here in the future, banging rocks together and waiting for the rest of you to catch up.

 

[Dumbledore]

Maybe, but Harris is not good enough to command a starting position over any other player, so it's a moot point. He's not a bad player by any stretch, but I cannot see where he could be slotted in.

He was a slightly above average goalkicker this year while being distinctly average around the park.

The paucity of quality goal, and field, kickers is just weird. Far too many home-grown techniques. There's no solution for it right now, it's something that has to start getting addressed at the lower levels all the way up.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

So you can see humanity hurtling downhill towards you?

Wasn't Daz in the Military. Is this documentary a story of his life?

 

[RedsHappy]

Did a quick count and the All Blacks only kicked at 67% in the last world cup - Slade and Carter both around 62%. Weeepu stood up a bit more at 76%, and Donald obviously went OK with his one attempt.

So if you're good enough, goal kicking doesn't matter too much.

We're probably not good enough though..

That's one way to look at it, not the way I do though.

Let's recall: if KB (Kurtley Beale) had worn the right boots and then had made that kick at the end of BIL 1 @ Suncorp in 2013, it's arguable that we would have won the whole 2013 BIL series.

I think I am right in saying that if France had kicked their very last late-in-game penalty instead of missing in the RWC 2011 Final, it's arguable that they may well have won that RWC.

Then, to the positive, we have Foley's last kick in the 2014 S15 GF.

Both missed kicks as above were 'gettable' not very low probability on their distance and angle merits.

To appreciate the real value of consistent excellence in place kicking, you really need to look at crucial, big games where successful, or unsuccessful, kicking has made the difference to success or failure.

It's not just a matter of looking at aggregate %s overall, that's important but not the whole story as to why clutch kicking excellence matters so much in rugby.

 

[Viking]

Cooper's attempt to play IC on Saturday highlights the importance of Leali'ifano for the RWC squad, to my eye he's running second for the 12 jumper ATM. And we simply must select and tune up another coupla props: Slipper could be headed for surgery at any moment while a reserve reserve THP's essential. Nice to see Sio and Holmes grab their opportunities and add some starch to the Oz scrum when they come on.

On another note, wasn't it nice to watch Tomane's try scored through searing speed. That's for tries scored against the Argies by the outside backs.

I agree. It was a strange decision for Chieka to put Cooper on the bench. It should have been Lilo - he was flown to Argentina after all. Plus a Foley/Lilo combo would have been interesting.

If To'omua goes down Lilo is the next best thing, he is becoming quite dominate into contact also, often putting on big hits.

 

[wamberal]

Did a quick count and the All Blacks only kicked at 67% in the last world cup - Slade and Carter both around 62%. Weeepu stood up a bit more at 76%, and Donald obviously went OK with his one attempt.

So if you're good enough, goal kicking doesn't matter too much.

We're probably not good enough though..

Oh yes it does matter. Stats only tell part of the story.

Are you saying that a team does not take the opposing kicker's abilities into account in working out their tactics?

Further, a game can change dramatically because of a successful kick, just as it can because of a failure. We can look back and see the historical record, what we cannot do is know what might have happened had one event happened differently, be it a referee's decision, a missed tackle, a dropped ball, or the result of a goal kick.


For example, I am absolutely convinced that France would have won the RWC had Trinh-Duc kicked that penalty. They were really taking it to the ABs at that stage. You could see the French deflate and the AIG Blacks lift after that.

It was only one missed goal - but it conceivably cost one World Cup.

 

[Dumbledore]

I agree. It was a strange decision for Chieka to put Cooper on the bench. It should have been Lilo - he was flown to Argentina after all. Plus a Foley/Lilo combo would have been interesting.

If To'omua goes down Lilo is the next best thing, he is becoming quite dominate into contact also, often putting on big hits.

Not really. Quade's hardly played any rugby this year. Cheika's trying to get him as many minutes as he can while still testing combinations out. Phipps-Foley-To'omua was worth a look.

The street theory that Foley needs a minder, or at least another playmaker outside him, got another test. Cheika knows what he's got with Phipps-Foley-Beale, how many times has he seen it now? Quade's done well at 12 in a pinch before, but neither he nor Foley were much good on Sunday.

But now we've got some more information to work with. Beale came on and showed that he's a phenomenal link player, and probably the best bench option, while Quade showed he probably has to be starting at 10 or he's out of the 23.

 

[Dumbledore]

The big question for the All Blacks is what happens if Hooper does get suspended because of pathetic Argentinean diving? Do we see the (erm) rise of the McCock?

 

[Strewthcobber]

But now we've got some more information to work with. Beale came on and showed that he's a phenomenal link player, and probably the best bench option, while Quade showed he probably has to be starting at 10 or he's out of the 23.

I wonder if Beale had played nearly the full game, and QC (Quade Cooper) came on for the last 10 minutes would we be thinking the exact opposite?

 

[Strewthcobber]

Oh yes it does matter. Stats only tell part of the story.

Are you saying that a team does not take the opposing kicker's abilities into account in working out their tactics?

All I'm saying is that you can win the World Cup with average goal kicking (including 1 from 4 in the final) if you're good enough. NZ have shown that

Now, I don't think we're good enough to win the World Cup without a top quality kicker but I also don't think we have any good goal kickers so it's a fairly moot point.

 

[Dumbledore]

I wonder if Beale had played nearly the full game, and QC (Quade Cooper) came on for the last 10 minutes would we be thinking the exact opposite?

Possibly? But Cooper had what, 60 minutes, and he didn't do a whole lot with them. I think Cooper at flyhalf gives us our best chance to win, but the Foley-Cooper pairing categorically didn't work.

 

[TOCC]

Now, I don't think we're good enough to win the World Cup without a top quality kicker but I also don't think we have any good goal kickers so it's a fairly moot point.

Yes it might be too late now, yet the goal kicking trend has been something which was identified long ago, a quality kicking coach should have been hired long ago and been dealing with kickers throughout the super rugby season.


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[Joeleee]

That's one way to look at it, not the way I do though.

Let's recall: if KB (Kurtley Beale) had worn the right boots and then had made that kick at the end of BIL 1 @ Suncorp in 2013, it's arguable that we would have won the whole 2013 BIL series.

I think I am right in saying that if France had kicked their very last late-in-game penalty instead of missing in the RWC 2011 Final, it's arguable that they may well have won that RWC.

Then, to the positive, we have Foley's last kick in the 2014 S15 GF.

Both missed kicks as above were 'gettable' not very low probability on their distance and angle merits.

To appreciate the real value of consistent excellence in place kicking, you really need to look at crucial, big games where successful, or unsuccessful, kicking has made the difference to success or failure.

It's not just a matter of looking at aggregate %s overall, that's important but not the whole story as to why clutch kicking excellence matters so much in rugby.

Strewth's way of looking at it is actually far better. Looking at important misses or scores isn't going to tell you which approach (prioritising kicking vs. field ability) was superior. A look at what the general trend is would be far better. If NZ lose in two weeks time because they miss a kick on the buzzer, it doesn't mean they haven't prioritised kicking properly, as the last ten years (including the world cup in 2011 as strewth discussed) show they've been fine.

Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying Australia's kicking is fine and there's no worries, but cherry picking important moments and saying they mean you have to have a top quality kicker to win is not the right way to argue the point.

 

[Gnostic]

None of our kickers are performing to the best of their ability. But as TWAS says we are better to work with what we have and try to improve them. To put things in perspective, these are the kicking strike rates for our and NZ kickers during last year's internationals:

AUS
Foley - 79.55%
Beale - 88.89%

NZL
Cruden - 62.5%
Barrett - 64.29%
Slade - 77.78%
Carter - 75%

As Redshappy has been saying for the last ?? how many years ?? where is the kicking coach to facilitate this. I can't think of a full time kicking coach since Ben Perkins. Considering it is such a key area of the game, as essential as the scrum and lineout which receive specialist coaching, WTF hasn't this been addressed. The ARU and the alleged HPU really are incompetent fools. It is too late to address it now, with weeks to go before the RWC. It was there to see in the loss of the Lions series, apart from the Deans factor, and it has been a factor in many other test losses.

I agree with Cyclo that it matters little who is kicking, even those no even considered in the squad such as Harris, because none of them are kicking any better.

I don't subscribe to the just giving up view, but just as with Deans a cogent argument can be made that the preparation for the RWC has not been approached with complete rigour to all the necessary skills. Many will blame Chieka, and he does indeed have a significant role in the failure, but as with the scrum and set piece, the ARU HPU has done SFA (I like acronyms ) to address the core skills of Australian players over a significant length of time. WTF do they actually do in the way of player performance?