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I have always thought past performances (especially a few years ago) are over rated when you have players in better form playing.
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As the saying goes, form is temporary, class is permanent. Some players are just proven test match players. JOC (James O'Connor) is one of those players. He might currently be in shit form, but under the right coach in the right environment he can turn things around pretty quickly.
From here its really about getting the best out of JOC (James O'Connor), and that's up to Cheika to work out. Agree with Braveheart that if Cheika cant whip him into some decent form, he'll possibly miss out on a WC spot. But the fact of the matter is that his ceiling is higher than most of our outside backs.
Conversely it's a fact that Super form doesn't equal test quality. In 2011/2012 there was a large number of Reds in the squad, many of whom were chosen because they were playing great rugby for their province (guys like Fainga'a / Davies / Taps etc) but that didn't necessarily translate to them being quality test players. That brilliant "lightening in a bottle" form that they had was only temporary, and was in large part thanks to a great team environment.
That's also a major problem with picking rookies IMO. its very hard to tell whether they'll sink or swim in the gold jersey, merely based on their provincial form.
Our world cup will largely come down to whether Cheika can turn us into a Champion team, rather than a team of champions. It will be about creating the right environment that gets the most out of the players. Its that intangible team work that turns average teams to champion teams. Chieka has to achieve that. If he can, a guy like JOC (James O'Connor) will flourish