I'd rate our 12s like this:-
1. To'omua
2. Lilo
3. Giteau
4. Beale
5. Horne
I hate to be that guy always hating on Beale, but I just don't rate him as a test player at 12.
- 3rd halfback. This will either be White/Genia, Stirzacker or Giteau. I don't think Giteau will actually play at the RWC at halfback unless there is an injury within 48 hours of a match and then he'll be on the bench as a reserve halfback. If Giteau is selected I think we'll only pick two specialist halfbacks and then there's a strong chance we'll only take 13 backs and opt for another forward.
- wing option. Speight and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) are currently the only wing options. Horne, JOC (James O'Connor), Cummins, Tomane are fighting it out here.
- utility backs. Beale and Leali'ifano are the two obvious options.
My prediction is Giteau will go to the RWC and it will mean we only pick two specialist halfbacks and 13 backs in total.
I think the remaining three backs will be three out of Horne, Beale, Leali'ifano and JOC (James O'Connor).
What do we think of Mitchell's chances? All the talk was about Gits and Drew didn't seem a chance but now after scoring a great try in a big final he surely has put his name forward. Plus with the other wingers not really setting the world on fire he must be a chance. eg I would have him ahead of Cummins, Tomane, Shipperley Betham etc
Also Lilo should be in the squad surely, when To'omua got injured last year he filled in very well for the Wallabies.
Agree with your assessment. expect, I'd argue that Horne and JOC (James O'Connor) both have more utility value than Lilo and Beale, looking at the positions we need to cover.
The fact that Beale and Lilo can play 10 is irrelevant in my view. If Foley and Cooper both go down I believe Larkham will prefer To'omua at 10. In fact if Giteau is in the squad he'd be ahead of them too. The only other positions Beale can play are 12 and 15 and as mentioned above, whilst he is decent cover for 12, he's not a great option to start at 12. Lilo can really only play 12. He's probably a better option to have to start the game at 12, but has limited value as a bench option.
Horne can play 11, 12, 13, 14.
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) can play 11,13,14,15.
JOC (James O'Connor) can play 11, 12, 13, 14, 15. He can also cover 10, but as mentioned above I'd say that's irrelevant.
In my opinion those three players are our most versatile and form permitting, must be in the squad.
Here's a question..... Is Giteau a chance of nabbing the 10 jersey?I think you can pretty much guarantee that Giteau will be involved in our Rugby Championship squad and if he's good enough he'll be right in the mix for RWC selections. 12 is definitely his premier position although I'm not sure he'll push ahead of To'omua. His defence is excellent but it isn't dominant and I think To'omua will stay ahead on that basis.
Let's assume that we're going to select 14 backs for the RWC squad. It could possibly go down to 13 but is unlikely to go up to 15.
I reckon the following spots are just about locked in barring injury.
9: Phipps, Genia/White
10: Foley, Cooper
12: To'omua
13: Kuridrani, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14: Speight
15: Folau
Here's a question... Is Giteau a chance of nabbing the 10 jersey?
I would have agreed with you at the start of the year given the lack of game time at 10. However Lilo has played the last few games at 10 for the Brumbies and won MOTM ahead of incumbent Foley. His form is building in the position. This combined with his highly successful 2012 stint at 10 still in the back of peoples minds I would think his chances of being cover for 10 is pretty good and will only increase if he continues to progress each game.
Is Speight a lock for Cheika though? The only reason I say that, is because Cheika seemed somewhat reticent to select him at the end of last year when he had arguably been in better Super Rugby form (though he had just got back from injury).
Possibly not. I tend to think he's got the best chance of the specialist wingers though. If JOC (James O'Connor), Horne and Mitchell boost their chances he might miss out.
Possibly not. I tend to think he's got the best chance of the specialist wingers though. If JOC (James O'Connor), Horne and Mitchell boost their chances he might miss out.