This is now the "must win" game. Two wins and two close results with the sides ranked 1 and 2 will be a pass, but still not what it could have been with a fractionally stronger side against Italy. A loss to Wales will be a real spoiler.
Therefore, I reckon Rennie et al will go conservative in some of their selections. I would be very surprised if Pete Samu doesn't start at 8, and if Noah doesn't start at 10. Maybe Lonergan at 2, but more likely FF (Folau Fainga'a). Campbell should be a shoe in for 15, and Wright and Nawaqanitawase should be the wingers. The centres are less clear. Ikitau at 12 and Petaia at 13 is an option, but could be Hodge at 12 and Ikitau at 13. Hodge on the bench might be the safest option.