Wallabies v Italy, Florence, Sun 13th Nov 12am AEDT

[liquor box]

Understand the argument Froggy but it is discipline that is missing and you don't get that out of a coach who wants to enjoy the approval of the dressing room. BTW the lousy skill set has been there for years, why haven't the coaches taken these guys aside and said 'you fix this or you can't play for the Wallabies' ignoring who it is or how much they are paid?

An approach like this might have fixed FF (Folau Fainga'a) (Folau Fainga'a) and a few others who's skill set is missing large parts of the jigsaw puzzle.

The problem is with that is why are professional players not embarrassed by their performances to the point where they use their own time to work on what is missing from their game?

If players missing parts of their expected skill set don't not get to play then we may have problems finding a team.

 

[Pfitzy]

I might have missed some, but that clearly shows that thare has not been "gulf in between" decent performances. The number of crap years is far lower than good.

OK so let's go a bit deeper on that and look at who we played - I would split Tier 1 from anyone else, for example. I got all the stats from wikipedia and decided to go out to 1970-2019

List of Australia national rugby union team test match results - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There are a crapload of caveats to this, of course, and the main one is that NH nations had a track record after professionalism of sending utterly dire second- and third-string teams down here for us to feast upon, while they looked after their contracts (76-0 v Poms, anyone?). Different story now, and like the joys of 1998-2002, something we tend to look at fondly as the norm.

I don't think we lost a single inbound test to a NH nation between 1996 (professionalism) and 2003, when Johnson's England came to play. It didn't happen again in 2010 and now we're looking at regular strong nations getting some RWC practice in with minimal resting.

Graph 1: Total Win % - number of tests increasing over time. Win percentage isn't bad overall, but in earlier years is boosted by Pacific Islands and weak inbound sides.

Graph 2: Win percentage v Tier 1 Nations - allowing for Italy to be considered "Tier 1" when they joined the 5N in 2000 and Argentina to be considered "Tier 1" when they joined the Trinations in 2012. You could argue against Italy even today, but Argentina started to show signs the last couple of years (not in scope). The picture starts to change slightly. Win trend still fairly flat. And some years like 1995 look distinctly odd because we were crap.

Of course during this period various nations went through shit like Wales and Scotland so they're not as robust as they are today. That win percentage is struggling to stay above 50% with that considered.

Graph 3: Trends on All Wins v T1 Wins v T1 excluding Italy and Argentina - looking purely at the 1980-2011 period, this line graph (confusingly) breaks down the percentage and trends. You can see the curve is heading downward again even prior to Rennie, and like a badly made bridge is suspended on a couple of high points in the mid-80s, early 90s, and turn of the century.

Note the period around 1996-2004 which is unbroken trend at 50% or above. That's rare and we don't manage that more than a few years in a row at other times.

I've bored you enough but if you look just at the 32 years you've nominated, we're 55% win against Tier 1 sides. Not bad BUT if you look at the 50 years from 1970-2019, we're 49%. If I go further back, I suspect it'll get worse, and the forward trend isn't much better. Take out that slice of time in the 90s where we got rubbish inbound tours from NH sides, and that percentage slides even further.

Maybe we're Tier 1, but if so we are the bottom bracket of it, and closer to a strong Tier 2 nation.

 

[KOB1987]

Gordon gave away an unnecessary yellow but apart from that was fine. I guarantee the coaching staff are equally disappointed with McDermott who made one terrible kick and passing was again sub-par.

The decision to put on Donaldson with five minutes to go was just ridiculous though. In a close game and with a debutant fly-half, he should either be given 20 minutes or none at all. Five minutes with the game in the balance is terrible management.

‘Let’s chuck on the new fulla, see if he can jag us a win as a debutante when everyone except Ned is playing shit’

 

[gel]

OK so let's go a bit deeper on that and look at who we played - I would split Tier 1 from anyone else, for example. I got all the stats from wikipedia and decided to go out to 1970-2019

List of Australia national rugby union team test match results - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There are a crapload of caveats to this, of course, and the main one is that NH nations had a track record after professionalism of sending utterly dire second- and third-string teams down here for us to feast upon, while they looked after their contracts (76-0 v Poms, anyone?). Different story now, and like the joys of 1998-2002, something we tend to look at fondly as the norm.

I don't think we lost a single inbound test to a NH nation between 1996 (professionalism) and 2003, when Johnson's England came to play. It didn't happen again in 2010 and now we're looking at regular strong nations getting some RWC practice in with minimal resting.

Graph 1: Total Win % - number of tests increasing over time. Win percentage isn't bad overall, but in earlier years is boosted by Pacific Islands and weak inbound sides.

View attachment 14967

Graph 2: Win percentage v Tier 1 Nations - allowing for Italy to be considered "Tier 1" when they joined the 5N in 2000 and Argentina to be considered "Tier 1" when they joined the Trinations in 2012. You could argue against Italy even today, but Argentina started to show signs the last couple of years (not in scope). The picture starts to change slightly. Win trend still fairly flat. And some years like 1995 look distinctly odd because we were crap.

View attachment 14968

Of course during this period various nations went through shit like Wales and Scotland so they're not as robust as they are today. That win percentage is struggling to stay above 50% with that considered.

Graph 3: Trends on All Wins v T1 Wins v T1 excluding Italy and Argentina - looking purely at the 1980-2011 period, this line graph (confusingly) breaks down the percentage and trends. You can see the curve is heading downward again even prior to Rennie, and like a badly made bridge is suspended on a couple of high points in the mid-80s, early 90s, and turn of the century.

Note the period around 1996-2004 which is unbroken trend at 50% or above. That's rare and we don't manage that more than a few years in a row at other times.

View attachment 14969

I've bored you enough but if you look just at the 32 years you've nominated, we're 55% win against Tier 1 sides. Not bad BUT if you look at the 50 years from 1970-2019, we're 49%. If I go further back, I suspect it'll get worse, and the forward trend isn't much better. Take out that slice of time in the 90s where we got rubbish inbound tours from NH sides, and that percentage slides even further.

Maybe we're Tier 1, but if so we are the bottom bracket of it, and closer to a strong Tier 2 nation.

fuck... give me an afternoon to digest that.

thanks for the effort.

"if you look just at the 32 years you've nominated, we're 55% win against Tier 1 sides. Not bad" <-- that's actually my point right there.

Which other tier 1 nations for 30 years had a better record than that? New Zealand and South Africa? For the better part of 30 years we were a top 3-5 nation. That's absolutely "Tier 1 for 30 years" right there.

 

[ACT Crusader]

Which 30 years? In the 80s we had a few years of success, then in the early and late 90s. In between there have been gulfs of average performances. Certain historic milestones stand out like a drawn tour in South Africa or a rare Bledisloe win. But we're reaping what we sow at this point in professionalism.

Fact: at points in our history, squads of excellent players with excellent leadership have come together - in spite of the systems providing them - and been as good or better than their peers at Test level. When those individuals aren't there, the system isn't providing enough excellence to drive performance standards.

Come on Nick, you’re downplaying all those “famous victories” that I hear from Sean Maloney

I was just thinking about certain Wallaby losses and is this one worst than that home loss to Samoa in 2011? A fair few first choicers were in that XV (or on the bench) if I recall, but it was one of those matches where Samoa got in front early and didn’t look back.

The Wallabies bounced back with a pretty decent 3Ns beating the Boks twice and the ABs in Brissy.
The pressure on next week has gone up a few notches aye!

 

[stillmissit]

Deans destroyed the Wallabies environmental from the inside out with his toxic favoritism & his outdated 18th century totalitarian my-way-or-highway approach,

While the Wallabies lost the first test in Sydney last weekend they did show attacking flair and ran the ball from their own half.


Deans wasn't respected by the players at all, Rennie on the other hand, clearly is universally respected by the current squad. Nic White said he was "outstanding" and an "unbelievable coach" and everyone loves him and want to play for him.

Rodha, I personally think E.Jones did far more damage than Deans ever did and I have mentioned reasons in other posts here. Deans tried to treat them like reasonable men and guys like the "3 Amigo's" pissed all over that idea. I thought his game plans were solid and I and others had time to discuss this during one of his many presentations, his selections became driven by trying to get these self-centred bunch of entitled kids into line. and had little to do with favouritism.
Genia's comments just back up what I believe, they hated him because he wouldn't let them do what they wanted to do which was to run the ball from their own half. This is our issue, we want to run the ball and bugger all that hard work stuff..

 

[RugbyReg]

I disagree with this so much. What is Rennie suppose to do? Play McReight over Hooper against France? You think that's getting a better shot then playing against Italy?

What Rennie and the entire coaching team (your Brumbies aren't escaping blame here) was be more respectful to the opposition, Wallaby jersey and his players. Oh yeah and the fans who stayed up / got up to support their team.

Why Kellaway, Hooper, Holloway, Porecki et al needed to be rested I don't understand.

Rest Valetini absolutely. So give Samu at shot at 8 or Hanigan at 6 for him, but keep the balance there with Hooper and Holloway.

Like I said, Kellaway should have played to provided one experienced level head in the back 3. Mark N (Nawaqanitawase) and Wright together is russian roulette. The ridiculous roundabout we've played with the 9s makes no sense. Knowing Folau is inconsistent with his throws and then having Lonergan on the bench is odd. Have Porecki has back up. The whole giving Donaldson 2 minutes at the end just for the sake of rotating given the state of the game. Just dumb.

We are under no obligation to ensure all players get a run. This isn't Under 8s. Donaldson and Marky Mark (Nawaqanitawase) can get their experience through training and mentorship. What did Donaldson get from that game? Bugger all.

Your saying it's easier to succeed playing against France then it is compared to Italy as long as you have Valetini and Hooper there? Seriously?

What? Where am I saying that? What a ludicrous leap? Show me where I say that?

 

[liquor box]

Gordon and probably Lolesio have lost their ticket to RWC23 or at least have a long way to go.

Two scrummies will be White & McDermott. We'll probably go with Cooper, Foley & cover like Beale, Hodge, maaaaybe a third young'un.
Same goes for McReight, I'd imagine we'd carry just Hooper & Samu in the squad.

Anyone's game for the hooker position. Porecki is probably safe, I'd put money on Latu. Third could be any of the Brumbies trio, maybe Uelese or BPA if rules are loosened.

I hope Kaitu'u plays himself into contention

 

[whitefalcon]

I'll have to reply to myself because I really think there is something to this.
England got away with so many penalties. So do other teams. But Australia get called for random shit that happeneds multiple times in the game. Like last night
Seat belt tackle, off feet when cleaning out, line outs not straight etc. Both sides did these things multiple times and one side got called for it. Small penalties or turnovers that all teams do but for some reason the Wallabies get called for it at random points in the game which stifles any opportunity.
The guys are not talking back to the ref anymore which is great and the right direction. I'm hoping this works soon and we stop copping random 50/50 calls that no other teams get pinged for. I'm 4 min into watching South Africa France and have seen 3 seatbelt tackles with no issue

Never deserved to beat Italy. Don't get me wrong. But the turnovers and penalties from these calls are out of control. Like the game this year where our scrumhalf got called not putting the ball into the scrum straight 2 or 3 times. Out of no where. No one refs it, no one cares but all of a sudden a red gets a hard on against Australia and calls it multiple times in a game.

honestly, i think we get called for it because we have a reputation for conceding penalties. I think our history probably results in a lot of 50/50 calls going against us (the ones that come to mind for me are the not straight throws, i think Italy got the rub of the green on 50/50 calls where we didn't)

Or maybe (and i must admit i didnt see it this game with Foley and White not on the field) we talk to the ref like trash and he gets the shits so we get penalised

 

[Pfitzy]

"if you look just at the 32 years you've nominated, we're 55% win against Tier 1 sides. Not bad" <-- that's actually my point right there.

And if I take out 2-3 wins against rubbish inbound tours per year it is ~40-45%

 

[Pfitzy]

I hope Kaitu'u plays himself into contention

Pollard.

 

[rodha]

Rodha, I personally think E.Jones did far more damage than Deans ever did and I have mentioned reasons in other posts here. Deans tried to treat them like reasonable men and guys like the "3 Amigo's" pissed all over that idea. I thought his game plans were solid and I and others had time to discuss this during one of his many presentations, his selections became driven by trying to get these self-centred bunch of entitled kids into line. and had little to do with favouritism.

I'd be interested for you to share those details regarding his game-plans, as I don't recall much evidence of them.

 

[Froggy]

While not disputing a lot of the selection issues, where are our world class (tier 1 ) players?
Certainly Valetini, Ikatau perhaps growing towards that level, Hooper and Slipper, but both past their very best.
That's realistically about it. Perhaps MK when he's available to us.

 

[Derpus]

While not disputing a lot of the selection issues, where are our world class (tier 1 ) players?
Certainly Valetini, Ikatau perhaps growing towards that level, Hooper and Slipper, but both past their very best.
That's realistically about it. Perhaps MK when he's available to us.

Kerevi.

 

[todd4]

I don’t get it.
It’s kind of like missing touch with on a penalty kick.

I do have some sympathy for Foley when he did that. At least he was trying to chew off as many metres as possible rather than adhering to the usual philosophy of Mediocrities - "Ah, 10-12 metres will do".

 

[Pfitzy]

Kerevi.

1 Bell
2 Porecki
3 AAA (c)
4 Frost
5 Skelton
6 Holloway
7 Hooper
8 Valetini
9 White
10 Foley
11 Koroibete
12 Kerevi
13 Ikitau
14 Kellaway
15 Campbell

16 Pollard
17 Slipper/Sio
18 Tupou
19 Philip
20 Samu
21 McDermott
22 Lolesio
23 Petaia

Or whatever.

 

[Pfitzy]

I do have some sympathy for Foley when he did that. At least he was trying to chew off as many metres as possible rather than adhering to the usual philosophy of Mediocrities - "Ah, 10-12 metres will do".

BUT HE DOESN'T PLAY FOR [province that I support] SO HE'S FUCKING USELESS!

 

[Brumby Runner]

World class players like Kerevi and Koroibete notwithstanding, I reckon the most valuable overseas player come RWC could be Scott Sio. There must be some doubt about Slipper maintaining his form until and through a WC program and for all his abilities otherwise Bell is still questionable at scrum time. Sio would have added a lot of experience and power to this touring side had he been called into the squad.

 

[Derpus]

BP fucking A.

Our hookers are shocking.

 

[eastman]

We really lack quality at 2, 10, 12 and 15 in the touring squad.