Wallabies v England in Melbourne, 18 June

[Groucho]

Not to sound traitorous, but that looks quite tasty.

That's 6:5. I think you'd have to rate them actual favourites to want any of that.

Personally I reckon the Wobs should still be favourites, and with my finger held firmly in the breeze I'd say 2:3 favourites, at which price the Poms would be $2.50 in a perfect book.

My personal rule for gambling edges in team sports is that I want 10% better than true odds to bet, else I pass. My threshold for backing the Poms would thus be $2.50 * 1.1 = ~$2.75. Tasty would be $3. Looked at the other way, at 2:3 the Wobs would have to be $1.66 * 1.1 = $1.82. Tasty would be $2.

So neither the Poms nor the Wobs are an indicated bet at $2.10 and $1.75. Which suggests the bookies are doing their jobs, and that any bet is against the odds, which is why they're rich and we're not.

Of course if you consider the odds to be other than my 2:3 guess then everything changes.

 

[Sir Arthur Higgins]

Mo

Morahan is an athlete and given some room can be devastating in attack.

Its the other part of his game that concerns me a bit

i rate him highly. he is a gun player. great pace, excellent with the boot in attack and defense. any defensive questions he may have are best suited to the wing and i think he's competent enough under the high ball. he runs great lines. injuries have cost him a number of tests IMO. very excited to see him get a run

mcmahon's only fault is he can sometimes be ill disciplined. if he can keep his head, he is a sensational player in all other facets of the game. and he's 21? incredible. bring mcalman on at 55-60.

almost any other country and liam gill would probably have 30+ caps already.

 

[Tip]

I was surprised Slipper didn't get the nod before him in game 1 actually - given super xv form. Thought Sio has been average all year.

Sio must have been rewarded for his RWC form, unfortunately scrum let him down.

Sio at his best Verse Slipper at his best - that is a tough tough call, I'd probably go with Sio for his blockbusting runs - but then again it could be Brumbies bias creeping in.

I'd prefer Slippers workrate and ball skills for the first 60 an Sio's fresh legs for bullocking runs in the final 20.
Slippers scrummaging was clearly hampered by a shoulder surgery 3 years delayed. At full fitness and form Slipper shades Sio at scrumtime and that's really all that matters.

Jeez Chieka seems to have a grudge for Horwill, who I thought was the best tight forward game on the park for us last week. I just don't get his Mumm fascination. I'd understand if he picked Gilly, but you don't need another 6 reserve with McCalman on the bench. We're powderpuff light here. Horwill is still the second best lineout caller in the country.

 

[Scrubber2050]

In some ways I would have loved to see a starting front row of Slipper, Taf and Keos/Holmes. That group would absolutely "dick" the Soap Dodgers

Taf is by far the best scrummaging hooker in the country.

But that is not realistic when he has to chuck the ball in somewhere in the lineout. Moore's work elsewhere is far superior to the rest of OZ hiikers

 

[Viking]

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/rug...ured-says-michael-cheika-20160617-gplgkj.html

News it that Simmons was available but dropped from the squad. Very interesting if true.

 

[Slim 293]

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/rug...ured-says-michael-cheika-20160617-gplgkj.html

News it that Simmons was available but dropped from the squad. Very interesting if true.

It sounds very true.........

"He was available this week," Cheika said. "Any player that is left out is not happy obviously but that's the challenge for him to improve and get his spot back like all players who are left out of the team. That's the nature of rugby; it has been forever. Some guys get picked, some guys don't and it's how you react accordingly.

"That's what we're looking for from the players who have been brought into the team. We want players to remain in the team and here's another opportunity to go and do your best. You've got limited amount of opportunities in the Test jersey so you've got to take everyone. Here's a guy who's been knocking on the door in that role in Sam Carter and it's going to be his opportunity to take that."

Asked whether dropping Simmons meant no players were exempt from getting the chop, Cheika said: "I've never heard of the phrase guaranteed selection. The minute anyone feels like they are guaranteed selection he's never going to perform. Sure, you don't want them stressing about things, but you've got to know that this is the national team and there are a lot of players that are vying for the one jersey."

 

[Braveheart81]

It's Sean McMahon's birthday tomorrow.

Surely it's a sign!

 

[Viking]

It's Sean McMahon's birthday tomorrow.

Surely it's a sign!

He'll be 22? I have been pretty critical of him recently but I forget how young he is. Think how good he will be in 2-3 years time.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I don't really get the suggestion of Cottrell any more.

He burst onto the scene playing some fantastic rugby a couple of years ago before he broke his leg but I don't think he's got close to that since.

He's struggled to cement himself as a starting XV player for the Force this year.

He's miles off Wallaby selection right now even if you were picking a side with a very strong nod to the future.

He's 26 already. There's a real chance that he'll never really be a consistent Wallaby player at any point because younger players will pass him.

I will concede he isn't in the sort of form he showed a couple of yeasrs ago, but imo he is still the most impactful player of the whole of the Force back rowers. Just needs to channel some of his over enthusiastic aggression into playing the ball rather than the man.

 

[wamberal]

Morahan would not be on the bench unless Chubby intends to use him.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Not surprised that Simmons was dropped on form, but surprised that Cheika actually made the call. Even more surprised that Horwill was also dropped from the 23. I think Kev would be a better, more like for like, replacement for Arnold than Mumm is for the last 30 minutes or so.

Rob has to do something to improve his all round game. Just not good enough to have the reputation for being the best lineout caller, especially when we are losing too many lineouts in a game. I suspect Carter has been called in because he hits ruck after ruck, and is very busy if not very impactful around the ground. He will be expected to chase any runner making a half break through the middle to protect possession first and foremost.

 

[Scrubber2050]

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/rug...ured-says-michael-cheika-20160617-gplgkj.html

News it that Simmons was available but dropped from the squad. Very interesting if true.

Braveheart - oh ye of little faith

 

[Braveheart81]

Braveheart - oh ye of little faith

I read it straight from the original ARU press release which said Simmons hadn't recovered from his back injury.

The first thing I thought of when these revelations came out were "oh my god. I've lied to Scrubber. I hope he forgives me."

 

[vidiot]

Simmons was available but dropped

Good. Tough love.

One thing about Cheika is that he gets players to contend. Simmons needs to step up and doing this now might pay off in TRC.

 

[Groucho]

Morahan would not be on the bench unless Chubby intends to use him.

In the absence of Tomane, Morahan could be the fast winger we need.

 

[Pedrolicus]

In the absence of Tomane, Morahan could be the fast winger we need.

Plus a decent general play kicker

 

[Mr Doug]

Carter to score a double, under the posts in the first 10

Geeze Scrubber, as much as we would all like that to happen, (as another 'former second rower'), I think "tragic's" post #419 is more realistic!!
I just said to Mrs Doug that those posting tonight are starting to "warm to the match", and are becoming less argumentative!! That must encourage any of the players who are reading this forum!

 

[ACT Crusader]

That's how our defensive system works. One playmaker defends deepish on the short side wing to help manage contestible kicks and provide support at the back if required. One of the reasons Horne gets picked is his added starch in the line defending at 12.

Seems like a lot of unnecessary shifting around IMO. 12s should be able to defend at 12 and why not use the wing and fullback to manage the kicks.

 

[Groucho]

Seems like a lot of unnecessary shifting around IMO. 12s should be able to defend at 12 and why not use the wing and fullback to manage the kicks.

Groan. It's not because the 12 can't defend at 12. Lilo is perfecly able to defend at 12. But maybe you're right. Defensive systems are confoundingly complex these days. I pine for the days of jumpers for goalposts. Marvelous.

 

[ACT Crusader]

Groan. It's not because the 12 can't defend at 12. Lilo is perfecly able to defend at 12. But maybe you're right. Defensive systems are confoundingly complex these days. I pine for the days of jumpers for goalposts. Marvelous.

And wingers throwing in at set lineouts....

There aren't too many international sides using their winger to defend at 12 or because they need the 12 out the back sweeping kicks.