Wallabies: Looking to the World Cup...

[Brumbieman]

So, looking ahead to the world cup, i've been mulling this over with a few bot...glasses of Torebrecks Shiraz.


Generally, it's rugby lore that ou need 5 world class players in your team to win a world cup. It's also agreed that the rest of your players can't be muppets either. So, do we have the cattle? It's pretty clear to me, and has been since the Argie game in Perth, that Link is starting to wring the extra 10% out of our players, and getting them to play as a team. On the coaching side of things, i'm stoked.

Player wise, who could be one of the 5 world class players?

IMO, we have Moore, Pocock, Genia (on form), Cooper, Folau, as of the Wales game, who are world XV viable players.

A slight notch down from that, we've got Hooper, Fardy, Horwill (again, on form), To'omua, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and Mowen (i'm going off his Lions form before he hurt his neck and lost power/strength) who with another year or two of solidarity in a single position, will I think also be contenders for their jersey in a world XV. To'omua and Fardy especially have taken to test rugby like a pig in mud, it's really surprising to remember they've both only played about 5 tests and are already rocks in the team.

So, with another 18 months of development, who else is getting a good vibe about this world cup?

 

[wamberal]

Torbrecks. Maybe you have had too much.


I would settle for a winning season next year. The year after might as well be next century, in rugby terms.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Winning season and a consistent team. If Link can keep an unchanged team that still wins games then we have our mould for the world cup team.

 

[Train Without a Station]

I'd like to see us winning 65-70%.

 

[wamberal]

If we are such a great team, we can prove it by winning next year's Bledisloe.


Talking about "world class players", how long is it since we did well in the under 20s? Our main rivals have far more depth than we do.


If we make the quarters in 2015, that will be a good performance, given the player stocks that we have.

 

[Brumby Runner]

If we are such a great team, we can prove it by winning next year's Bledisloe.


Talking about "world class players", how long is it since we did well in the under 20s? Our main rivals have far more depth than we do.


If we make the quarters in 2015, that will be a good performance, given the player stocks that we have.

I think there might have been other factors at work at the U20 level rather than just lack of depth. Like for instance, poor selection systems and coaching and the absence of a valuable lead in competition to hone individual skills and team combinations etc. Hopefully, next year will see some of these problem areas turned around.

 

[Brumbieman]

If we are such a great team, we can prove it by winning next year's Bledisloe.


Talking about "world class players", how long is it since we did well in the under 20s? Our main rivals have far more depth than we do.


If we make the quarters in 2015, that will be a good performance, given the player stocks that we have.

If we learned anything from this year, it should be the Fardy example. Youth and flash doesn't make a good test player.

U20's are important for developing players, certainly, but we need o stop trying to fill the Wallabies with new young and exciting players and forego the knee-jerk reactions to a young kid throwing a couple of nice passes.

 

[No4918]

Talking about "world class players", how long is it since we did well in the under 20s? Our main rivals have far more depth than we.

Would putting a quota on U20 players in the 3rd tier teams help? Would it weaken the competition too much and negate the perceived benefits? On the plus side it would mean a lot of young guys that don't get a chance to show there stuff may get an opportunity and not be lost to that other code.

 

[TOCC]

Would putting a quota on U20 players in the 3rd tier teams help? Would it weaken the competition too much and negate the perceived benefits? On the plus side it would mean a lot of young guys that don't get a chance to show there stuff may get an opportunity and not be lost to that other code.

market forces will determine how many U20 players make the 3rd tier sides, i don't think there needs to be quotas or any other forced selection measure.

 

[wamberal]

If we learned anything from this year, it should be the Fardy example. Youth and flash doesn't make a good test player.

U20's are important for developing players, certainly, but we need o stop trying to fill the Wallabies with new young and exciting players and forego the knee-jerk reactions to a young kid throwing a couple of nice passes.

That's really not the point I was trying to make. Two of our toughest rivals have been doing very well at the under 20s level for several years, and we have made absolutely no impact.

As for "knee-jerk reactions to young kids", what do you think about young kids like Brodie Retallick and Eben Etsebeth? Retallick captained the NZ under 20s in 2011 and played for the Blacks in 2012. Etsebeth has only just turned 22. Knee jerks? Really? Not the expression that I would have chosen.

If a player is good enough, he is old enough. You can be sure that, if we had produced some championship winning under 20 sides in the last couple of years, we would be a lot stronger at the Test level.

 

[Train Without a Station]

market forces will determine how many U20 players make the 3rd tier sides, i don't think there needs to be quotas or any other forced selection measure.

Could not agree more. Many attribute the futures league replacing the 2nd XI program as a major factor in the decline of both Shield and grade cricket.

 

[Train Without a Station]

If we learned anything from this year, it should be the Fardy example. Youth and flash doesn't make a good test player.

U20's are important for developing players, certainly, but we need o stop trying to fill the Wallabies with new young and exciting players and forego the knee-jerk reactions to a young kid throwing a couple of nice passes.

I don't think he's saying parachute youngsters in. You've got to think if our U20's are pardon my French, but fucking shithouse year after year, then it's fair to assume once the lag between those players playing 20's and coming into Super Rugby elapses, our Wallabies will be fucking shithouse too.

 

[wamberal]

I don't think he's saying parachute youngsters in. You've got to think if our U20's are pardon my French, but fucking shithouse year after year, then it's fair to assume once the lag between those players playing 20's and coming into Super Rugby elapses, our Wallabies will be fucking shithouse too.

If we had under 20s of the calibre of Retallick and Etsebeth (to name just two, but both are of course in a similar mould to Brumbieman's star example of a late developer, Scott Fardy) - you can bet they would be parachuted in. If it is good enough for the two teams in world rugby that have thrashed us pretty comprehensively lately, then it would be good enough for most of us. Retallick in particular, under 20s one year, an outstanding All Black lock the next.

If you are good enough, who cares how old you are? Look for a parachute, quickly. It is really stupid to set up artificial barriers to player advancement.

 

[Train Without a Station]

I don't consider that parachuting a player in. That's picking on merit. Exactly how it should be. Some are good enough younger. Some at that age like Fardy, struggle to hold down a Super contract but get to that level later.

 

[TOCC]

If we had under 20s of the calibre of Retallick and Etsebeth (to name just two, but both are of course in a similar mould to Brumbieman's star example of a late developer, Scott Fardy) - you can bet they would be parachuted in. If it is good enough for the two teams in world rugby that have thrashed us pretty comprehensively lately, then it would be good enough for most of us. Retallick in particular, under 20s one year, an outstanding All Black lock the next.

If you are good enough, who cares how old you are? Look for a parachute, quickly. It is really stupid to set up artificial barriers to player advancement.

Michael Hooper played in the same U20 as Retallick and Etsebeth, debut'd for test rugby in 2012 like those two and has more test caps then both those players.

 

[Forcefield]

market forces will determine how many U20 players make the 3rd tier sides, i don't think there needs to be quotas or any other forced selection measure.

100% agree.

Given the timing of the new NRC, it will only benefit 19 year olds who will be eligible for the U20s the following year. The U20s are typically in July. The NRC is after that.

The JWC U20s did not start until 2008 and we still had U/!9 World Championships back in 2007. Looking back at the official ARC squads (other U20 eligible players might have been used) there are around 2 players per team who were in the U/19s in 2007. If that trend continues, you've got about half a squad worth of U20 players who have trained and possibly played in the NRC.

 

[Dave Beat]

I think there might have been other factors at work at the U20 level rather than just lack of depth. Like for instance, poor selection systems and coaching and the absence of a valuable lead in competition to hone individual skills and team combinations etc. Hopefully, next year will see some of these problem areas turned around.

Have an U21 team in the 3t may assist.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I too have been pondering this question and how we're looking two years out from the RWC. I'd say we're in OK shape, but there are a number of areas that we'll need to significantly improve before we can consider ourselves to be contenders.

Solidity in the Scrum
It's obvious isn't it? Our tight five has to be primarily picked on their abilities in the set piece phases of the game. I don't care about flashy props or hookers who score from 40m out or who can put on a side step. That's not their core job. Keeping the scrum up, straight and going forward is an important area for the whole tight forward group and if forced to make the choice, I'd sacrifice a bit of dynamism around the park for top drawer execution in the scrum, lineout and restart. You can give away a lot of points by being weak in the set piece, especially the scrum. In tight knockout stage games you don't want to handicap yourself by needlessly giving penalties away.

Defence
I think we give away too many points at the moment because our defensive systems aren't yet tight enough. If you look at the history of the RWC, it's the team with the best defence that usually wins. Happily, the direction of our defence seems to be right one: improvement. With To'omua and Kuridrani in the centres, there is certainly the starch required to knock blokes backwards and give the back row an opportunity to disrupt or steal the opposition pill. With that said, we're going to have to get better at stopping opposition forwards from making inroads. Teams with big packs like the Boks and Poms just love smashing it up through the pigs all day and using the driving maul. We're going to have to quell that mode of attack.

Goalkicking
Another thing that the history of the RWC tells us is how important accurate goal kicking is. Nearly all of the winning teams had uber reliable kickers, who made sure that points were secured with most forays into the opposition 22. There are few cheap points on offer in knockout games, so we've got a decision to make: do we go for the attacking players who can score tries or do we reserve a spot for a bloke who nails >80% of his kicks? The ideal scenario would be for QC (Quade Cooper) to continue to develop and be that goal kicker. It would then mean that we could have Cooper/To'omua/Kuridrani as the midfield and the nice balance of defence and attack we have with them now. Lilo has proven himself to be an excellent kicker, but not quite as good as To'omua in the other areas. He can tackle though and if his ankle holds up, you'd have to almost guarantee him a spot in the match day 23 on the basis of his ability to cover 10/12 and relieve a kicker having an off day. I suspect To'omua is also going to get some considerable time with the boot for the Brumbies next year due to Lilo's surgery, so we'll find out more about him too (for the record I think he goes alright in that area).

Winning Ugly
Wallaby teams of the past (and the present) have often struggled in arm-wrestle type games where there is a need win ugly and not let the opposition frustrate you into chucking the game away. The Poms are brilliant at this and to a certain extent the Saffers too (though their attack is better). They alternate between trying to bludgeon or bore you to death and we need a way to maintain that composure, keep making opportunities to score and reducing theirs. This falls under that whole area of game management: knowing when it's on and when it's not, playing for field position, taking points when they are on offer and generally not losing your head under pressure. I think we've seen a growing maturity in Cooper and calm leadership in Mowen that suggests we're heading in the right direction.

Discipline at the breakdown
This area is a worry at the minute. We're running the real risk of being whistled off the park by a ref who picks whatever day to be very strict about the breakdown laws. At the same time, I think we're often a bit lazy about protecting our own pill. It's no surprise that the games we've won have been largely on the back of quick ball from the ruck, allowing our backs and forwards coming around the corner to hit the ball at pace. The games where we've struggled it's been the opposite. The opposition isn't stupid, they'll have worked out that we can be frustrated by diving in over the ball or counter rucking through the middle. You can see Genia at times really losing his shit when this happens, so obviously Hooper, Fardy, Mowen and Horwill in particular need to aim up and protect him.

 

[Brumbieman]

That's really not the point I was trying to make. Two of our toughest rivals have been doing very well at the under 20s level for several years, and we have made absolutely no impact.

As for "knee-jerk reactions to young kids", what do you think about young kids like Brodie Retallick and Eben Etsebeth? Retallick captained the NZ under 20s in 2011 and played for the Blacks in 2012. Etsebeth has only just turned 22. Knee jerks? Really? Not the expression that I would have chosen.

If a player is good enough, he is old enough. You can be sure that, if we had produced some championship winning under 20 sides in the last couple of years, we would be a lot stronger at the Test level.

Sure, if they're good enough then they make it. What I meant was we should stop picking players who have potential, eg CFS for the Wallabies before they've even nailed down a Super rugby position. Retallick and Etsebeth came from the U20's and dominated their position straight out, so they were selected on merit.

CFS, as my example, is just a kid with a lot of potential. Test rugby is not the place for him to learn the ropes, he should do that in Super rugby, and nwo that we have it, the 3rd tier. Beale, O'Connor etc were all flung into test rugby very early, and while they did well, another year or two of slower development like NZ would've done, may have seen them take a different path to what they're on now. 2 seasons of the occasional game off the bench, but IN the set up and under the coaches eye, is much more beneficial than the sink or swim method we've had for the last few years.

 

[wamberal]

Sure, if they're good enough then they make it. What I meant was we should stop picking players who have potential, eg CFS for the Wallabies before they've even nailed down a Super rugby position. Retallick and Etsebeth came from the U20's and dominated their position straight out, so they were selected on merit.

So basically we agree. Age and experience are not as important as performance.

My point in mentioning the under 20s was primarily about the impossibility of forecasting anything much, two seasons out. Champion players can spring up from nowhere (for us or, sadly more likely, for our competitors); the certainty that some of our current squad being injured can be taken for granted.