Wow you really think we only better them at 9 and 2?? I feel as I know quite a bit about the NH players and I do respect them but I have us winning a h2h favourably.
Benn Robinson is better than Vunipola. Palu is better than Heaslip or at least equal. James Horwill better than one of their locks. Hooper better than Tipuric or Warburton and Mowen even though he hasn't even got a cap is up there with Croft (wouldn't compare to O'Brien - too different). Our back 3 is more dangerous. JOC (James O'Connor) is on par with Sexton if you take out goal kicking (Halfpenny).
2 and 9 are the positions where there's a bit of a gap. Some are othres are marginally in our favour. I admit that I probably incorrectly left out 7.
Regarding JOC (James O'Connor), as in individual player he's better than Sexton, as a 10, no, there's zero evidence of that in my opinion. I'd take Sexton over JOC (James O'Connor) at 10, and have JOC (James O'Connor) elsewhere. As a unit, I'm not sure who will be better. In my book, Sexton is a better well rounded 10, but Phillips isn't exactly a traditional 9. Genia is a more traditional 9, and JOC (James O'Connor) does not yet have the vision for a more traditional 10 in my opinion.
Benn Robinson all things being equal is better than Vunipola. However, Vunipola has been great recently and Benn Robinson is not quite at his peak, but he's nearing it. I'd not have much between them right now. Overall, as a unit, I reckon our front row will have the edge around the field, thanks to Jones, and theirs may have the edge in the scrum, thanks to Jones.
Horwill, yeah, he will likely be better than one of their locks. As a combination, though, I'd have the Lions locks above ours. A lot will depend on POC's form. Gray was great against the Reds, I thought, and Parling was better than I expected. If Douglas and Horwill show up, though, we may go well here, although the Lions locks will likely be better in the lineout. I'd guess that the starting Lions will be POC and Gray.
Hooper / Gill, agree I probably missed that one. As a unit, though, I'd say there's not much between backrows, depending on what the Lions pick. I reckon the Lions could pick a backrow unit marginally better (SOB, Tipuric, Heaslip) to worse (Lydiate, Warburton, Faletau). I have no idea what Deans will do with our backrow, if he reverts to Dennis, Hooper, Palu I'd give the edge to the Lions.
Disagree on our back three being more dangerous. A lot will actually depend on what our back three are.
Halfpenny will be more dangerous running than Barnes, and I don't think Barnes is fully match fit. Barnes is a better organiser and defender than Halfpenny though. Beale will be more dangerous running but there's not much evidence of his form other than that Rebels game a few weeks back where he wasn't pressured too much, and the Randwick game where he was just solid. I worry what will happen to Beale if he's put under a lot of constant pressure (I'm remembering his return from injury against the ABs).
I reckon our fullback will either be Beale or Barnes, with the other on the bench. Fullback is a huge wildcard for us, because Barnes/Beale could either be great, poor, or anywhere in between. We won't know until the first test is well underway.
I think that North and Bowe would've been a better wing combination than ours, but Bowe is out for at least the first test. With Ioane out, our likely wing options are Folau, Tomane and Cummins. I really rate Folau (my one criticism is his decision making of run vs kick), but am not sure of him on the wing. He wasn't as good there for the Tahs as at fullback - although I reckon he would be with more game time. Cummins and Tomane are great players, but they aren't in the league of North or Bowe. I reckon our wings for the first test will be two of Cummins, Tomane and Folau, with the other missing out on the 23. For the second test, Ioane will likely be back and starting.
Whatever the Lions do to deal with the loss of Bowe will be a big loss.
Where the Lions definitely have it over us is the centres. Jamie Roberts is better than McCabe or Horne, and a fit BOD would likely be more than a match for AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper).
What could be telling is that our guys will go into the first test not having played in three weeks.